Mesoscale Discussion 1691

Issued

Sep 3, 2021, 3:18 PM CDT (20:18 UTC)

Expired

Sep 3, 2021, 5:45 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

533 
ACUS11 KWNS 032019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032018 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-032245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Fri Sep 03 2021

Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...Southwestern
Kansas...and Northwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032018Z - 032245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing over the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles are drifting north-northeastward.  While the
strongest storms will pose the risk of damaging winds, the lack of
stronger flow/shear should limit the overall severe weather threat,
likely precluding the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating south of frontal boundary draped across
Kansas has resulted in moderate instability (>1500 J/kg of MLCAPE)
across southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the eastern Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles.  Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the
warm, moist air south of this boundary, where the flow aloft is
rather weak (~20 knots per AMA VWP).  While these storms drift
north-northeastward toward the boundary, the effective bulk shear
increases, especially north of the boundary.  

Mid-level lapse rates are rather weak across the area, so the
primary threat will likely be damaging downburst winds from
precipitation loading effects, given the record to near-record PW
values across the area (per DDC and AMA 12Z soundings this morning).
The best chance for an organized severe wind threat would be if a
cluster of storms organized and rode near/along the boundary in
southern Kansas.  At this time, the severe threat is expected to
remain rather isolated, so a watch appears unlikely.

..Jirak/Grams.. 09/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   35580083 35760017 36149965 36529889 36789800 37069736
            37549722 37899741 37889881 37839961 37640042 37450096
            37060143 36530173 36040236 35660203 35580083

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.