Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1687

September 2, 202118 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 2, 2021, 7:15 PM CDT for 18 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 2, 2021, 7:15 PM CDT (00:15 UTC)
Expired
Sep 2, 2021, 8:45 PM CDT
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 487

Counties Chase County, KS, Clay County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, Marshall County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Rice County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-09-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 155 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-09-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 212 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
155 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-177 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1035 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
212 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
268 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

025 
ACUS11 KWNS 030016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030015 
KSZ000-030145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021

Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 487...

Valid 030015Z - 030145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 487 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two remain
possible over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms have developed over the past few
hours, with a couple of damaging gusts noted with cellular mergers.
These storms are progressing in a relatively pristine environment
characterized by up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, storms have
struggled to sustain steady state behavior in structure or
intensity, with recent severe potential mainly being confined to
storms progressing from Dickinson into Morris County, KS. Current
thinking is that storms will continue to fluctuate in intensity,
supporting occasional damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado,
especially farther north, where greater deep-layer ascent and
low-level/deep-layer shear are present. The severe threat may
persist for at least a couple hours after dark given a modest
expected increase in the nocturnal low-level jet.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38299855 39259752 39839687 39889614 39629557 39129538
            38649569 38359610 38129712 38299855

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 2, 7:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEllis, Gove, Graham, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell and 8 more90 min
Sep 2, 9:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChase, Dickinson, Geary, Lyon, Marion, Morris and 3 more96 min
Sep 3, 3:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Ford, Harper, Kingman and 6 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.