Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1683
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 2, 2021, 2:11 PM CDT for 8 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 2, 2021, 2:11 PM CDT (19:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 2, 2021, 4:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Saline County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 925 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 13 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 136 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 228 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
205
ACUS11 KWNS 021912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021911
KSZ000-022115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021
Areas affected...northeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021911Z - 022115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms in the Salina Kansas area may
persist for a few hours into northeast Kansas. Wind, hail, and
perhaps a tornado threat are all possible.
DISCUSSION...Storms on the southern fringe of a larger-scale
precipitation shield from NE into northern KS have increased in
intensity as a hotter air mass develops to the south. Surface
analysis shows temperatures into the 90s F across south-central KS,
which has eroded capping. Downstream of these cells, temperatures
are quite a bit cooler, only in the lower 80s around Topeka,
although a warming trend is expected. Cirrus is currently hampering
heating across northeast KS as well.
Given the robustness of the current cell, a severe hail or wind
threat may persist in a narrow zone across several counties over the
next few hours. In addition, shear profiles are favorable for
supercells, and 0-1 SRH will remain over 100 m2/s2 which could also
favor a tornado risk assuming cells remain discrete.
..Jewell/Grams.. 09/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39069798 39539626 39449589 39169571 38949577 38839609
38799716 38739789 38809799 38919802 39069798SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 1:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Graham, Norton, Phillips, Sheridan | 2 hr |
| Sep 2, 4:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Edwards and 16 more | 97 min |
| Sep 2, 5:27 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barton, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 27 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.