Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1685

September 2, 202122 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 2, 2021, 4:23 PM CDT for 22 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 2, 2021, 4:23 PM CDT (21:23 UTC)
Expired
Sep 2, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
97 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch
40%
All 22 counties

Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Ford County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Stafford County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2021-09-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 713 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2021-09-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 178 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
713 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-72 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1170 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
178 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

636 
ACUS11 KWNS 022124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022123 
KSZ000-022300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 022123Z - 022300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage/intensity increasing across central Kansas.
A watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed across the warm sector in central
Kansas in an airmass with around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective
shear around 30 to 35 knots leading to some updraft organization.
The primary severe threat is still expected to be with development
along the front later, especially into southern Nebraska, but
ongoing activity has shown enough persistence/intensity for earlier
watch consideration.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 09/02/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37660014 38859933 39509846 39729712 38839709 37539793
            37199985 37660014

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 2, 1:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDecatur, Graham, Norton, Phillips, Sheridan2 hr
Sep 2, 2:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickinson, Geary, Ottawa, Pottawatomie, Riley, Saline and 2 more2 hr
Sep 2, 5:27 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarton, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 27 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.