Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1685
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 2, 2021, 4:23 PM CDT for 22 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 2, 2021, 4:23 PM CDT (21:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 2, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 22 counties
Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Ford County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Stafford County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 713 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -72 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1170 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 178 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 135 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.0
The text
As transmitted.
636
ACUS11 KWNS 022124
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022123
KSZ000-022300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021
Areas affected...Central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022123Z - 022300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storm coverage/intensity increasing across central Kansas.
A watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Storms have developed across the warm sector in central
Kansas in an airmass with around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective
shear around 30 to 35 knots leading to some updraft organization.
The primary severe threat is still expected to be with development
along the front later, especially into southern Nebraska, but
ongoing activity has shown enough persistence/intensity for earlier
watch consideration.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 09/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 37660014 38859933 39509846 39729712 38839709 37539793
37199985 37660014SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 1:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Graham, Norton, Phillips, Sheridan | 2 hr |
| Sep 2, 2:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickinson, Geary, Ottawa, Pottawatomie, Riley, Saline and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Sep 2, 5:27 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barton, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 27 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.