Mesoscale Discussion 1406

Issued

Jul 31, 2021, 2:40 PM CDT (19:40 UTC)

Expired

Jul 31, 2021, 4:45 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

098 
ACUS11 KWNS 311941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311940 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-312145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Areas affected...South-Central KS...North-Central/Northwest
OK...Eastern OK Panhandle...Northeast TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 311940Z - 312145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage expected this afternoon.
A predominantly pulse storm mode is anticipated, but a few damaging
wind gusts are still possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown a deepening trend
with the cumulus field across south-central KS and north-central.
This deepening is occurring in the vicinity of a remnant outflow
boundary preceding the stronger cold front now moving into northern
KS. Air mass across the region is very warm and moist, with recent
surface temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s and dewpoints ranging
from the low 60s over the northwest OK to the low 70s around ICT.
Warm mid-level temperatures are in place but the very warm and moist
conditions will still result in moderate buoyancy. Most of the
stronger flow aloft is displaced north of the region, so a
predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode is anticipated. Relatively
high cloud bases coupled with steep low-level lapse rates and ample
low-level moisture will result in an environment favorable for
damaging downbursts with any more robust updrafts. Coverage of these
strong, more persistent updrafts is expected to be limited, keeping
the overall severe threat isolated and precluding the need for a
watch.

..Mosier/Grams.. 07/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37380060 37679947 37829806 37759679 37449632 37009626
            36559660 36459776 36319886 36000028 36120089 36610110
            37380060

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.