Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1402
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 31, 2021, 12:54 AM CDT for Doniphan County, Wyandotte County, Kansas; 22 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 66 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 31, 2021, 12:54 AM CDT (05:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 31, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 405
All 24 counties
Doniphan County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1481 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -14 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2071 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 120 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 4.2
The text
As transmitted.
351
ACUS11 KWNS 310555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310554
MOZ000-KSZ000-310700-
Mesoscale Discussion 1402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021
Areas affected...northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...
Valid 310554Z - 310700Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
continues.
SUMMARY...Overall severe potential appear limited across WW 405,
though locally gusty winds remain possible.
DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are continuing to propagate
south/southeast over northwest MO. Overall convection has been
largely unproductive in producing severe gusts over the past couple
of hours. This is likely due to increasing boundary-layer inhibition
combined with a rather modest low-level jet. Convection is not
expected to increase in intensity with southward extent overnight,
but sporadic/locally gusty winds are possible with the more intense
cells within the loosely organized line/cluster. Watch extensions
and/or new watch issuance is not expected at this time and WW 405 is
set to expire at 07z.
..Leitman.. 07/31/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 40049285 39909231 39049244 38689285 38579344 38739421
39129488 39599522 39949510 40009482 40109437 40119390
40049285SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 8:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Jefferson, Leavenworth and 2 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 30, 11:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Doniphan | 85 min |
| Jul 30, 11:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Doniphan | 96 min |
| Jul 31, 2:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Cowley, Harper, Kingman and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 30, 8:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison | 59 min |
| Jul 31, 11:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Dent, Howell and 16 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 31, 5:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Bates, Bollinger, Butler, Camden, Carter and 37 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.