Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1337

July 23, 20217 counties in Minnesota; 8 counties in North Dakota; 8 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 23, 2021, 10:33 PM CDT for 7 counties in Minnesota; 8 counties in North Dakota; 8 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 23, 2021, 10:33 PM CDT (03:33 UTC)
Expired
Jul 24, 2021, 12:30 AM CDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 388
All 23 counties

Big Stone County, MN, Clay County, MN, Grant County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Cass County, ND, Dickey County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Brown County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Day County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Walworth County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-07-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3002 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-07-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 53 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3002 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1613 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
6.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

657 
ACUS11 KWNS 240333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240333 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-240530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Areas affected...northeast South Dakota...southeast North
Dakota...west-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...

Valid 240333Z - 240530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts or marginally severe hail remains possible
with a cluster of cells moving the North/South Dakota border.

DISCUSSION...A primary cluster of storms continues east/southeast
near the ND/SD border, with new development on the southwest flank.
A 75 mph gust was recently measured in McPherson County SD. VWPs
across ND show increased northwest winds just above the surface,
indicating the deeper cold advection. This is aiding additional
storms on the northwest side of the primary cluster.

Temperatures aloft remain cool due east of the advancing convection,
and the boundary layer remains very moist and unstable. Height falls
with the upper trough will continue, favoring at least a continued
threat across the remainder of WW 388 and perhaps to the east. Parts
of west-central MN may need a watch should the storms continue to
produce severe gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46239998 46659987 46819947 47059658 46689565 45749551
            45329597 45209676 45189913 45250017 45400041 46239998

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 23, 7:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Carlton, Cass, Lake, Saint Louis2 hr
Jul 23, 9:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Pipestone, Redwood and 2 more2 hr
Jul 23, 11:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnoka, Benton, Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant and 16 more4 hr
Jul 24, 1:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi, Meeker and 9 more95 min
Jul 23, 7:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Dickey, Emmons, Grant, LaMoure, Logan and 5 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.