Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1336

July 23, 20218 counties in Minnesota; 17 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 23, 2021, 9:07 PM CDT for 8 counties in Minnesota; 17 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 23, 2021, 9:07 PM CDT (02:07 UTC)
Expired
Jul 23, 2021, 11:30 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 25 counties

Lac qui Parle County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Rock County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Aurora County, SD, Beadle County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Davison County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 2.1 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-07-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3002 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-07-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 53 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3002 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1613 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
6.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

861 
ACUS11 KWNS 240208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240207 
MNZ000-SDZ000-240430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240207Z - 240430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will move from South Dakota into
Minnesota, possibly with strong gust potential.

DISCUSSION...Sporadic storms have developed within a broad band of
precipitation extending from north-central NE into eastern SD.
Despite cooler boundary-layer temperatures, robust moisture is in
place with PWAT over 2.00" measured on GPS sensors near FSD.

Warmer midlevel temperatures exist in this region compared to
farther north, which is hampering hail potential. In addition,
deep-layer shear is less with only 25-30 kt winds at 500 mb. Despite
this, a growing cluster of storms may be able to produce strong,
water-loaded downdrafts, as instability remains favorable downstream
into MN. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for upscale
growth that may necessitate watch consideration.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   43379743 43259832 43439886 43829913 44209909 44579855
            44819762 45079593 44859553 44449524 43999528 43689585
            43569655 43379743

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 23, 7:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Carlton, Cass, Lake, Saint Louis2 hr
Jul 23, 10:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Clay, Grant, Otter Tail, Stevens, Traverse and 1 more117 min
Jul 23, 11:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnoka, Benton, Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant and 16 more4 hr
Jul 24, 1:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi, Meeker and 9 more95 min
Jul 23, 7:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Campbell, Clark, Codington, Corson, Day and 15 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.