Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1195
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 8, 2021, 7:09 AM EDT for 17 counties in North Carolina; Georgetown County, Horry County, Marion County, South Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 8, 2021, 7:09 AM EDT (11:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 8, 2021, 9:15 AM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 348
Counties Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Marion County, SC
The radar
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1219 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -30 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 948 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 4 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -19 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
535
ACUS11 KWNS 081109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081109
NCZ000-SCZ000-081315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 AM CDT Thu Jul 08 2021
Areas affected...parts of northeastern South Carolina and into
eastern North Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 348...
Valid 081109Z - 081315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 348 continues.
SUMMARY...Risk for brief tornadoes continues, and will gradually
spread into areas of eastern North Carolina north of WW 348.
DISCUSSION...Radar loop over the past 1 to 2 hours has revealed a
subtle decrease in the number -- and duration -- of low-level
circulations within convection northeast of the center of Elsa.
This likely-to-be-diurnally-related minimum may continue over the
next couple of hours, before possibly ramping up a bit later this
morning.
In tandem with this possible ramp-up will be a continued
northeastward spread of the stronger bands of convection, eventually
expanding to areas outside of Tornado Watch 348. These factors will
likely necessitate consideration of new WW issuance across a larger
portion of eastern North Carolina, in the next hour or two.
..Goss.. 07/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33557943 34317944 35197866 35647739 34877616 33697767
32917896 33557943SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 1:38 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender, Robeson | 2 hr |
| Jul 8, 2:01 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender | 7 hr |
| Jul 8, 8:35 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven and 23 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 8, 12:11 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 23 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 8, 1:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare and 11 more | 11 hr |
| Jul 8, 4:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford, Pasquotank and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 8, 6:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Dare and 8 more | 117 min |
| Jul 7, 10:00 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Hampton, Jasper | 2 hr |
| Jul 8, 5:25 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berkeley, Dillon, Florence, Georgetown, Horry, Marion and 1 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.