Mesoscale Discussion 1113

Issued

Jun 26, 2021, 2:27 PM MDT (20:27 UTC)

Expired

Jun 26, 2021, 4:30 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

60%

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323Jun 26, 2:50 PM MDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324Jun 26, 4:00 PM MDT

205 
ACUS11 KWNS 262027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262027 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-262230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Areas affected...West-central Texas and far eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 262027Z - 262230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving east/southeast out of New Mexico will
pose a severe wind threat through the late afternoon and evening
hours. Additionally, strong to severe storms will likely develop
across west/southwest Texas and move northeast through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed along the terrain of the
southern Rockies across eastern NM within a modest upslope flow
regime. Although the environment the storms are currently in is
marginal, they will encounter deeper boundary-layer moisture/better
buoyancy and stronger effective bulk shear as they move east off the
terrain later this afternoon/evening. With low-level lapse rates
near 7-9 C/km in place across the plains of east NM and west TX,
convective downdrafts will be capable of damaging wind gusts. Trends
will be monitored for the need for a watch for eastern NM and far
west TX.

To the south and east, convective initiation is expected late this
afternoon in the vicinity of a surface low near the Midland, TX
region and/or along a surface trough axis that extends to the
northeast of the low (or potentially along one of several weak
surface boundaries noted in this region). As temperatures warm into
the upper 80s and low 90s, MLCIN continues to erode  with a
corresponding increase in instability. A gradient in MLCAPE is noted
roughly from west-central TX northeastward to the Wichita Falls, TX
region - generally along a surface trough axis that delineates
cooler continental to the north and a more tropical air mass to the
south. Deep-layer flow is also oriented along this axis, so any
convection that develops within this zone will likely propagate to
the northeast. 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear will be
sufficient to support organized severe storms with an attendant
hail/wind risk. Although timing of initiation is somewhat uncertain,
a watch will likely be needed later this afternoon/evening to
address this potential.

..Moore/Hart.. 06/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   31860265 32000362 32670379 33870368 35060372 35270298
            34150168 34789974 34349913 33579990 33040058 32670120
            32140193 31860265

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.