Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1107

June 25, 202111 counties in Kansas; 5 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 25, 2021, 11:42 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas; 5 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 25, 2021, 11:42 PM CDT (04:42 UTC)
Expired
Jun 26, 2021, 12:45 AM CDT
In force
63 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Craig County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-06-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1507 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-06-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 31 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1507 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1381 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
110 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

861 
ACUS11 KWNS 260443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260442 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Areas affected...Southeast KS...northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 260442Z - 260545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind and a brief tornado threat may
persist through about 07Z across mainly southeast KS into a portion
of northeast OK.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster intensified over south-central KS, to
the south of an MCV in central KS, as outflow from a largely
decaying cluster in north-central OK merged with the remnant outflow
from the decaying MCS that was in southeast OK and southwest MO.
Organization of the cluster with a couple of brief mesovorticities
were noted earlier near Wichita. Potential will exist for transient
mesovorticities capable of producing severe wind gusts and a brief
tornado given a rather enlarged low-level hodograph amid 40-kt 1 km
AGL southwesterlies sampled by the INX VWP atop the remnant outflow
boundary. Overnight, stronger low-level flow will be increasingly
focused across the southern High Plains (reference MCD 1106), and
strengthening MLCIN across much of OK both suggest that the overall
severe threat will remain temporally and spatially limited farther
northeast.

..Grams.. 06/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37779656 38109526 37949455 37179451 36869467 36639505
            36539579 36509654 36899676 37369657 37779656

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 25, 8:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Coffey and 16 more64 min
Jun 25, 8:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Greer, Harmon and 3 more86 min
Jun 25, 11:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEllis, Roger Mills84 min
Jun 25, 11:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Custer and 11 more5 hr
Jun 26, 1:53 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer, Grady and 7 more67 min
Jun 26, 12:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 12 more2 hr
Jun 26, 3:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarmon2 hr
Jun 26, 3:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCaddo, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady and 10 more9 hr
Jun 26, 6:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCComanche, Cotton, Grady, Jackson, Jefferson, McClain and 2 more93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.