Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1044
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2021, 2:14 AM EDT for 14 counties in Indiana; 20 counties in Michigan; 9 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 21, 2021, 2:14 AM EDT (06:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 21, 2021, 4:15 AM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 298
All 43 counties
Allen County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH
The radar
The Detroit radar (KDTX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 133 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -112 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1501 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
865
ACUS11 KWNS 210615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210614
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210815-
Mesoscale Discussion 1044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021
Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Southern Lower Michigan...Far
Northwest Ohio
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298...
Valid 210614Z - 210815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 298
continues.
SUMMARY...A tornado and wind-damage threat is expected to continue
across parts of northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan over
the next few hours. The threat should eventually effect northwest
Ohio.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a well-developed QLCS
over northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. The QLCS is
located in a very moist airmass with surface dewpoints near 70 F.
This is contributing to moderate instability ahead of the QLCS, with
the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/Kg range across
northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP in
South Bend, Indiana has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 kt with 50 kt of
flow just above the surface. This environment will continue to
support QLCS development. For this reason, the bowing line segments
ongoing in the western part of WW 298 are expected to be maintained
for several more hours. Wind damage will be likely along the leading
edge of the more intense line segments. A tornado or two will also
be possible, associated with any rotating storms embedded in the
line.
..Broyles.. 06/21/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 40898689 40898619 41058613 41008526 40908522 40938432
41158429 41178336 41238335 41248282 41378282 41458309
41518260 41658259 41908295 42098304 42328291 42518253
42678265 42838268 42848364 42798369 42748629 42488635
42418695 40898689SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 8:14 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Allen, Blackford, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 30 more | 61 min |
| Jun 20, 10:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter | 4 hr |
| Jun 20, 11:51 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Allen, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton and 14 more | 54 min |
| Jun 21, 1:00 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, LaGrange and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 21, 11:59 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashland, Ashtabula, Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana and 31 more | 91 min |
| Jun 21, 12:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Ashtabula, Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana and 33 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.