Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1043
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2021, 11:51 PM EDT for 20 counties in Indiana; 17 counties in Michigan; 13 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 54 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 20, 2021, 11:51 PM EDT (03:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 21, 2021, 12:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 54 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 295
All 50 counties
Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Henry County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH
The radar
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 133 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -112 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1501 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
505
ACUS11 KWNS 210351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210351
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210445-
Mesoscale Discussion 1043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Areas affected...Northern IN...northwest OH...southern Lower
Michigan
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...
Valid 210351Z - 210445Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295
continues.
SUMMARY...A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed
before the 05z expiration of WW 295 for upstream thunderstorms
posing a severe risk into the overnight hours.
DISCUSSION...Evening surface analysis shows a composite warm
front/outflow boundary near the IN/OH/MI border, with a recent
increase in strong/isolated severe thunderstorms in the vicinity of
the front. A strengthening low-level jet will focus warm/moist
advection in the vicinity of the front during the early overnight
hours, providing a feed of unstable air into the region as
strong/severe thunderstorms currently over northeast IL continue to
move east. Current indications, supported by recent high-res
guidance, are for a continued severe threat beyond the scheduled 05z
expiration of ww 295. This will necessitate coordination of a new
watch prior to that time.
..Bunting.. 06/21/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42938610 42858466 42798367 42388314 41858296 41338284
40988300 40768436 40558540 40628614 41008686 41788671
42938610SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 8:14 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Allen, Blackford, Boone, Carroll, Cass and 30 more | 61 min |
| Jun 20, 10:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter | 4 hr |
| Jun 21, 1:00 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, LaGrange and 8 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 21, 2:14 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, LaGrange and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 21, 11:59 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashland, Ashtabula, Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana and 31 more | 91 min |
| Jun 21, 12:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Ashtabula, Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana and 33 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.