Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1040

June 20, 202136 counties in Indiana; 22 counties in Michigan; 21 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2021, 8:14 PM EDT for 36 counties in Indiana; 22 counties in Michigan; 21 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 20, 2021, 8:14 PM EDT (00:14 UTC)
Expired
Jun 20, 2021, 9:15 PM EDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 295
All 79 counties

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clinton County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Jay County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Barry County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Erie County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Huron County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2021-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 133 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2021-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 52 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
133 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-112 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1501 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
52 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

916 
ACUS11 KWNS 210015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210014 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...Central/northern IN...southern Lower MI...portions
of northern OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...

Valid 210014Z - 210115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a
risk for large hail and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...A cluster/bowing segment of severe storms was located
over far southwest Lower MI and extreme northern IN at 0010z, with
more isolated storms over eastern and southern portions of the watch
area.  Ascent with a northeast-moving MCV near the southern tip of
Lake Michigan will aid additional development through the early
evening hours, with a continued risk for large hail and damaging
winds given moderate/strong MLCAPE and 40 kt west/southwest
mid-level flow.  Although the cluster of storms near
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek will move towards lower instability over the
next couple of hours, the degree of organization suggests the
damaging wind threat will persist at least in the short term.

..Bunting.. 06/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   39848569 39788689 40668730 41588689 42408615 43088613
            43098389 43108311 43038281 42618297 42178331 41698343
            41638207 41238207 39848569

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 20, 10:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter4 hr
Jun 20, 11:51 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton and 14 more54 min
Jun 21, 1:00 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, LaGrange and 8 more7 hr
Jun 21, 2:14 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, LaGrange and 8 more2 hr
Jun 21, 11:59 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Ashtabula, Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana and 31 more91 min
Jun 21, 12:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Ashtabula, Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana and 33 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.