Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1041

June 20, 202131 counties in Illinois; Monroe County, Ralls County, Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2021, 9:54 PM CDT for 31 counties in Illinois; Monroe County, Ralls County, Missouri. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 20, 2021, 9:54 PM CDT (02:54 UTC)
Expired
Jun 20, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 296
All 33 counties

Adams County, IL, Boone County, IL, Brown County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cass County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Henry County, IL, Knox County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Logan County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Menard County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Pike County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Stark County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Monroe County, MO, Ralls County, MO

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1058 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 174 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1058 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1009 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
174 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
230 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.4
Supercell composite
7.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

469 
ACUS11 KWNS 210255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210254 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-210400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...West-central/northern IL...northeast MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 296...

Valid 210254Z - 210400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 296
continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds, large hail and a tornado
or two will continue across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite as of 0245z depicts several
areas of strong/severe thunderstorms across or about to enter WW
296.  Coverage continues to increase as warm advection with an
intensifying low-level jet focuses ascent across the watch area. 
Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a supportive environment for a
continued severe risk with strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg) and
35-40 kts of westerly effective shear.  Although individual cells
will be capable of severe hail, cells merging into clusters/line
segments will be capable of producing more concentrated areas of
damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Bunting.. 06/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   39529033 39459092 39349177 39369216 39529223 39929140
            40219091 41089043 41759018 42329010 42438948 42348882
            41508861 39648959 39529033

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 20, 8:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Boone, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Carroll and 31 more5 hr
Jun 20, 9:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCook, DuPage, Ford, Grundy, Iroquois, Kane and 6 more4 hr
Jun 20, 9:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBates, Cass, Cooper, Henry, Johnson, Lafayette and 2 more64 min
Jun 21, 11:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDunklin, Pemiscot85 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.