Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1025

June 19, 202113 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2021, 9:49 PM CDT for 13 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 19, 2021, 9:49 PM CDT (02:49 UTC)
Expired
Jun 19, 2021, 10:45 PM CDT
In force
56 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 287

Counties Audrain County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Macon County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Pike County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Warren County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 287 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-06-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2021-06-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2652 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

109 
ACUS11 KWNS 200249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200249 
MOZ000-ILZ000-200345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Areas affected...portions of east-central and northern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287...

Valid 200249Z - 200345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue in and west of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287, however a new watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Strong/occasionally severe storms were occurring across
east-central/northeast MO as of 0225z.  Trends in radar/reports
continue to show a general decrease in intensity over the watch area
during the past hour as MLCIN gradually increases due to nocturnal
cooling.  The more likely area for additional thunderstorm
development over the next few hours is west of the current watch
over north-central MO, where modest convergence and lower MLCIN is
present.  With strong instability and 25-30 kts of effective shear,
the potential for an isolated severe storm will exist for the next
few hours.

Given the expected isolated nature of the remaining severe risk, an
additional watch is not anticipated however convective trends will
be monitored.

..Bunting.. 06/20/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38359068 38969190 39179235 39379326 39789316 39909267
            39879183 39749146 39389098 38579035 38359068

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 19, 11:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway, Worth96 min
Jun 19, 11:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrew, Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway, Worth4 hr
Jun 20, 3:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Grundy, Harrison and 5 more113 min
Jun 20, 10:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Lewis, Marion2 hr
Jun 20, 2:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 25 more118 min
Jun 20, 4:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Andrew, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton and 21 more7 hr
Jun 20, 6:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Andrew, Audrain, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 30 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.