Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1008

June 19, 20219 counties in Alabama; 7 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2021, 8:33 AM CDT for 9 counties in Alabama; 7 counties in Florida. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 19, 2021, 8:33 AM CDT (13:33 UTC)
Expired
Jun 19, 2021, 9:30 AM CDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 284

Counties Butler County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dale County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Pike County, AL, Bay County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 179 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-06-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1367 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-06-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 147 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1367 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
747 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
147 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
315 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

130 
ACUS11 KWNS 191333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191333 
FLZ000-ALZ000-191430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Areas affected...southern AL...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 284...

Valid 191333Z - 191430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 284 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for a tornado or two will probably continue
through the morning and into the afternoon.  A tornado watch will be
considered later this morning to the east of tornado watch 284.

DISCUSSION...KMOB radar imagery shows a couple of embedded rotating
updrafts over southern AL and far western part of the FL Panhandle
as of 1330 UTC.  The 12 UTC Tallahassee raob showed ample buoyancy
(1400 J/kg MLCAPE).  The raob likely sampled to the east of the
moist axis, which was located farther west over the western FL
Panhandle where surface dewpoints are 2-4 deg F higher.  

The KEVX VAD data has shown an increase in 3-km AGL flow with speeds
increasing from 40 to 50 kt during the past 2 hours.  As a result,
the hodograph has enlarged and around 240 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH is noted.
Given the very moist/strongly sheared low levels, it seems plausible
it will continue to remain favorable for mesocyclogenesis during the
morning.  The stronger and more persistent circulations will be
capable of a couple of tornadoes.  As the primary band translates
east and north during the morning, the risk for a tornado will
probably spread into parts of southeast AL and potentially the
central part of the FL Panhandle later this morning and into the
afternoon.

..Smith.. 06/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   29978569 30358640 30218776 31428731 32058690 32028606
            31598547 30758521 30188525 29918562 29978569

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 19, 1:08 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Escambia, Mobile3 hr
Jun 19, 1:40 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia and 3 more9 hr
Jun 19, 9:33 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarbour, Bullock, Butler, Coffee, Covington, Crenshaw and 10 more9 hr
Jun 19, 6:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston and 2 more83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.