Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1006
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2021, 1:08 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 19, 2021, 1:08 AM CDT (06:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 19, 2021, 3:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Baldwin County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, George County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Stone County, MS
The radar
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 174 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -29 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 572 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 108 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 124 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted.
880
ACUS11 KWNS 190608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190608
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-190845-
Mesoscale Discussion 1006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
Areas affected...Far Southeast Louisiana...Far Southern
Alabama...Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 190608Z - 190845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado threat will be possible in the coastal areas
from far southeast Louisiana eastward to the western Florida
Panhandle. Weather watch issuance may be needed along this portion
of the coast later tonight.
DISCUSSION...A tropical weather system is currently located near the
coast of Louisiana about 40 statute miles to the south-southeast of
Morgan City. A north-to-south band of moderate to heavy rainfall is
located about 50 statute miles to northeast of the center extending
inland about 100 statute miles. This band of rainfall is located
along an axis of moderate instability, with the RAP estimating
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The Mobile WSR-88D VWP
currently has a looping hodograph with 0-1 km shear near 40 kt and
0-3 storm relative helicity near 475 m2/s2. The strong low-level
shear will likely support a tornado threat as the band of rainfall
moves eastward along the coast. Supercells with a potential for
tornadoes will also be possible just to the east of the band. The
tornado threat may continue for several more hours as the band moves
across far southern Alabama and into the far western Florida
Panhandle around daybreak.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/19/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30738948 31138883 31248772 31228680 31128640 30778625
30508629 30218672 29978815 29568903 29458916 29408934
29478973 30048974 30738948SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 1:40 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baldwin, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia and 3 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 19, 8:33 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Dale and 3 more | 57 min |
| Jun 19, 9:33 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Coffee, Covington, Crenshaw and 10 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 19, 6:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barbour, Bullock, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston and 2 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.