Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
357 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture over southern Utah will spread northward
across the remainder of Utah and southwest Wyoming Monday and
Tuesday. Unsettled conditions will continue for much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...High pressure remains parked
just west of the forecast area this afternoon as an upper low
moves west across southern Arizona. Hot, dry, and stable
conditions are being observed over northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming in northerly flow aloft, that is also bringing a good
amount of smoke into the air from western wildfires. Moisture
increases going southward, with widespread PWs in excess of 1.0
inch over southern Utah into eastern Utah. Showers and
thunderstorms, some of which have already produced heavy rain and
gusty winds, have initially been focused over the higher terrain
but are starting to drift into some valley locations. The storms
will continue into the evening before weakening with the loss of
daytime heating.

The Arizona low will continue west, reaching the southern
California coast tomorrow. This will shift the position of the
high to the east, allowing a more southerly flow to develop over
Utah and southwest Wyoming tomorrow. This will act to draw
moisture back northward and also decrease the amount of smoke in
the air for northern Utah. The threat of heavy rain tomorrow
spreads into central Utah, with the deeper moisture spreading
across the majority of the forecast area by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday)...Wednesday could bring a lull in
monsoon action. Ridging to the east strengthens in a wide range of
guidance, bringing drier flow into southwest Wyoming and Utah.
Showers and thunderstorms are still expected, but will likely be
more isolated and near higher terrain.

There is good ensemble agreement in the ridge tilting as it moves
southeast in an orientation that will increase monsoonal moisture
advection. This synoptic set up should remain similar for a few
days. Precipitable water values over 1" are likely to build into
southwest Wyoming and northern Utah Thursday. Portions of northern
Utah are well above 100% normal in the GEFS and EPS mean
precipitable water amounts into the weekend. There won't be as much
of a moisture gradient with increases to the north, but precipitable
water will remain over 1" for most places further south. More
afternoon and evening convection is expected with storms moving
south to north. Flash flooding will remain a threat.

Temperatures are expected to trend cooler as moisture increases.
From near average temperatures Wednesday, the remainder of the week
will be a few degrees cooler than average in southwest Wyoming and
northern Utah. Depending mainly on precipitation, toward the
weekend, KSLC could reach shy of 90F for the first time in over a
month. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than average for
much of the remainder of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected through the valid
TAF period. Visibility will mostly remain above 6 sm, and smoke is
expected to lift north into the evening. Smoke will decrease more
Monday. Northwest winds are expected to switch to the southeast
around 04Z with largely clear skies.

Rest of Utah and southwest Wyoming...VFR conditions are expected
through the valid TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected in southern Utah through 04Z with heavy rain and gusty
winds the main threat. Smoke will decrease in northern Utah in the
evening and for Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms capable
of heavy rain and gusty winds are expected Monday afternoon largely
south of KSLC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms have developed over
southern Utah in a most airmass as northern Utah remains hot, dry,
and stable. Repositioning of the ridge will result in southerly
flow developing over the area beginning tomorrow, allowing
moisture to spread across the entire district by Tuesday. Little
change in the pattern is anticipated for the middle to latter part
of the week, allowing unsettled conditions to continue.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ123>125.

WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Wilson

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
441 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

UTZ122-124-125-252330-
Southwest Utah UT-Southern Mountains UT-Zion National Park UT-
441 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...WEST
CENTRAL KANE AND SOUTH CENTRAL IRON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 439 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles west of
Cedar City to 12 miles northeast of Zion National Park...and moving
west at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cedar City, Zion National Park, New Harmony, Kanarraville, Hamilton
Fort, Newcastle and Kolob Canyon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 15 between mile markers 37 and 58.
 Utah Route 56 between mile markers 29 and 60.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 11361 3777 11320 3738 11267 3732 11312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 092DEG 22KT 3772 11329 3740 11283

ND

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
544 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

UTZ123-128-260015-
South Central Utah UT-Lower Washington County UT-
544 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 544 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Sand Hollow State Park, or 17 miles west of
Colorado City...moving south at 10 mph.

Penny to nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible.

Locations impacted include...
Apple Valley, Sand Hollow State Park and Rockville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
available television stations for additional information and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 11340 3711 11339 3712 11306 3700 11308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 356DEG 9KT 3707 11328

ND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
552 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

UTZ123-125-260015-
Southern Mountains UT-Lower Washington County UT-
552 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 551 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 9 miles southeast of Beaver Dam...moving south at
10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver Dam, Gunlock State Park, Motoqua, Gunlock, Goldstrike and
Veyo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
available television stations for additional information and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 11405 3746 11378 3737 11371 3727 11371
      3728 11405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 356DEG 9KT 3745 11388

ND

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