Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1246 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.AVIATION...

A line of showers and thunderstorms progressing east through the
Four State region is creating TAF issues over most of the area,
although flight cat limitations are primarily MVFR at worst.
Expect south to southeast winds of 5 to 15 mph ahead of the storms
(ELD/MLU) with winds briefly turning to the northwest as the
storms pass. But then there will be a period of time (1 to 3
hours) where winds go slack before turning solidly from the west
later this afternoon through this evening as the main cold front
pushes through. This transition of winds is already happening at
TYR and will soon at GGG and LFK. Expect conditions to turn mainly
VFR behind front, but wrap around clouds and a few showers could
bring back in MVFR conditions to TXK and ELD later tonight into
midday tomorrow. South of these areas expect few to scattered
clouds late tonight into tomorrow with west winds gusting
potentially up to, or over, 30 mph by late morning to midday
tomorrow. /50/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021/

UPDATE...

As expected, a squall line is growing in intensity as it pushes
through the Arklatex and toward Central LA. Instability is
definitely higher south of I-20 in advance of the line, but there
is enough marginal instability to the north to be concerned with
at least isolated severe wind gusts and a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out. But along and south of I-20 the brief tornado and
damaging wind gust threat is a bit higher, although there is a
question as to whether low level wind shear profiles are quite
high enough to foster a solid squall line tornado threat. We are
putting up a special weather balloon right now to help further
evaluate the details of low level instability and wind shear.
Expect this line to advance east/northeast through the region into
the early afternoon hours with still some potential for a
secondary convective line to develop over the northern half of
zones along the actual cold frontal zone and strong upper low
synoptic lift coming in from later this afternoon into early this
evening. Some severe weather threat may remain with this secondary
line later, although the predominant threat is definitely with the
initial line moving through right now.

Otherwise, tornado watches have previously been put in place for
all areas (except Union and Ouachita Parishes) ahead of the squall
line south of the AR/LA border. These watches expire at 4 PM CDT,
but we will be canceling most areas following the squall passage.
/50/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/

Potent longwave trof movg into the Plains this morning already
fueling a line of strong to severe storms roughly along the I-35
corridor of OK/TX. This line of storms, according to the latest
model guidance, will arrive at our wrn edge right around sunrise.
Very strong deep-layer and low-level wind shear will intersect
with a moist and at least moderately unstable airmass present
across the srn half of the region. As such, see no reason why this
line of storms won't continue its ewd march with the threat for
wind damage and isold tornadoes firmly taking shape during daytime
heating along the associated dryline/Pacific front. Shortly on the
heels of the dryline/Pac front, the main cold push along a
secondary push of energy around the base of the upper low will tap
into lingering weak instability across the nrn half of the
region, resulting in perhaps another line of convection later this
morning. There does appear to be a non-zero threat for these
storms to also reach severe limits, with damaging winds/isold
tornadoes the primary concerns.

Convection should be e of the region by the middle part of the
evening. Some additional shwrs in wrap-around moisture along the
swrn flank of the upper low will be possible, mainly n of I-20
through the overnight and morning hours of Thursday. However, the
bigger story for Thursday will be the gradient winds. Latest model
guidance pins portions of our region with sustained winds in the
25-30 mph range with gusts of around 40 mph. Fully expect wind
headlines to be needed, but will defer those to later shifts to
decide exactly what headline will be needed and to allow for the
severe threat to remain the primary story for this cycle. Strong
CAA will bring below normal max temps in the 60s at most sites
for Thursday. /12/

LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday Night/

A very active weather pattern in the short-term will transition into
much quieter weather for this long-term forecast period. Behind the
front, the region will remain under NW flow for some time, allowing
for both afternoon highs and overnight lows to remain well below
average. However, look for the 500mb flow to finally take a more
zonal shift to start the next workweek. This will allow for
temperatures to begin warming, albeit only back up to a seasonal
feel. The most notable item in the long term will be the winds
through Saturday. The pressure gradient behind the front will remain
incredibly tight for some time, allowing for very strong winds
across the region. Wind headlines will likely be needed into the
weekend, with the extended of the headlines to follow in subsequent
forecasts.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  56  67  53 / 100  10  20   0
MLU  78  55  65  52 / 100  60  30  10
DEQ  73  51  61  47 / 100  20  50   0
TXK  75  55  63  51 / 100  10  30   0
ELD  73  51  61  48 / 100  60  40  10
TYR  78  56  71  51 / 100   0   0   0
GGG  78  54  69  50 / 100   0  10   0
LFK  80  55  74  51 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
356 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-280900-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
356 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible areawide today,
as a strong cold front moves east across the region. The threat
looks to begin as early as daybreak in our western zones of east
Texas, with the greatest chance of severe weather along and south
of the I-20 corridor. The primary threats associated with this
line look to be damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. After the threat diminishes Wednesday evening
as the cold front departs to the east, gusty west/northwest winds
can be expected overnight and into the day Thursday, with some
gusts reaching as high as 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Strong gusty winds will remain possible under a tight pressure
gradient through Saturday. Wind headlines will likely be issued in
the wake of the severe weather today. At times, winds my be
sustained over 20mph, with gusts over 40mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters may be needed throughout the day
Wednesday.

44

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
208 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE TATUM              32.34N 94.48W
10/27/2021                   PANOLA             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE REPORTED DOWN IN THE NW PART OF THE
            COUNTY.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
210 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSON               32.16N 94.80W
10/27/2021                   RUSK               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON CR 3397, FM 782 NEAR CR 2186,
            FM 225 2 MILES N OF HWY 284, FM 2496 NEAR CR
            3161 AND STATE HWY 42 NW OF HWY 795.

&&

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
216 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

LAZ006-013-014-019-021-271945-
Caldwell LA-Winn LA-Ouachita LA-Union LA-Jackson LA-
216 PM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Caldwell,
eastern Jackson, southeastern Union, Ouachita and northeastern Winn
Parishes through 245 PM CDT...

At 215 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Brownsville-Bawcom to 11
miles south of Richwood to near Clarks. Movement was northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Claiborne, West Monroe, Columbia, Swartz, Brownsville-Bawcom,
Brownsville-Bawcomville, Richwood, Sterlington, Chatham, Eros, Drew,
Fondale, Vixen, Bosco, Riverton, Millhaven, Folksville, Rocky Branch
and Mineral Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for north central
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 9200 3228 9203 3227 9199 3219 9201
      3220 9197 3218 9198 3182 9244 3228 9250
      3250 9243 3250 9242 3257 9241 3277 9206
      3273 9207 3269 9205 3271 9204 3271 9197
      3266 9194 3266 9191 3260 9193 3251 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 225DEG 27KT 3242 9224 3229 9213 3205 9218

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

16