Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
608 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.AVIATION...

Patchy MVFR cigs to continue ahead of a cold front and associated
tstms presently ongoing across N TX and ern OK. Line of storms to
move into the area right at the start of the pd, continuing ewd
across our region through 00Z Thursday, with some very strong
winds and low flight categories possible invof convection.
Although more uncertain, a secondary line of storms may develop
shortly behind the first, which would primarily impact our S AR
terminals. Improvement to VFR conditions will begin from w to e
around 18Z and conclude prior to 06Z tonight. Otherwise, gusty
sely winds ahead of the front will become wly to nwly after
fropa. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/

Potent longwave trof movg into the Plains this morning already
fueling a line of strong to severe storms roughly along the I-35
corridor of OK/TX. This line of storms, according to the latest
model guidance, will arrive at our wrn edge right around sunrise.
Very strong deep-layer and low-level wind shear will intersect
with a moist and at least moderately unstable airmass present
across the srn half of the region. As such, see no reason why this
line of storms won't continue its ewd march with the threat for
wind damage and isold tornadoes firmly taking shape during daytime
heating along the associated dryline/Pacific front. Shortly on the
heels of the dryline/Pac front, the main cold push along a
secondary push of energy around the base of the upper low will tap
into lingering weak instability across the nrn half of the
region, resulting in perhaps another line of convection later this
morning. There does appear to be a non-zero threat for these
storms to also reach severe limits, with damaging winds/isold
tornadoes the primary concerns.

Convection should be e of the region by the middle part of the
evening. Some additional shwrs in wrap-around moisture along the
swrn flank of the upper low will be possible, mainly n of I-20
through the overnight and morning hours of Thursday. However, the
bigger story for Thursday will be the gradient winds. Latest model
guidance pins portions of our region with sustained winds in the
25-30 mph range with gusts of around 40 mph. Fully expect wind
headlines to be needed, but will defer those to later shifts to
decide exactly what headline will be needed and to allow for the
severe threat to remain the primary story for this cycle. Strong
CAA will bring below normal max temps in the 60s at most sites
for Thursday. /12/

LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday Night/

A very active weather pattern in the short-term will transition into
much quieter weather for this long-term forecast period. Behind the
front, the region will remain under NW flow for some time, allowing
for both afternoon highs and overnight lows to remain well below
average. However, look for the 500mb flow to finally take a more
zonal shift to start the next workweek. This will allow for
temperatures to begin warming, albeit only back up to a seasonal
feel. The most notable item in the long term will be the winds
through Saturday. The pressure gradient behind the front will remain
incredibly tight for some time, allowing for very strong winds
across the region. Wind headlines will likely be needed into the
weekend, with the extended of the headlines to follow in subsequent
forecasts.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  56  67  52 / 100  10  10   0
MLU  78  55  65  52 / 100  40  20  10
DEQ  73  51  62  47 / 100  30  30   0
TXK  75  55  64  51 / 100  20  20   0
ELD  73  52  61  48 / 100  40  20  10
TYR  78  56  70  51 / 100  20   0   0
GGG  78  54  69  50 / 100  10   0   0
LFK  80  55  74  51 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
356 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-280900-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
356 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible areawide today,
as a strong cold front moves east across the region. The threat
looks to begin as early as daybreak in our western zones of east
Texas, with the greatest chance of severe weather along and south
of the I-20 corridor. The primary threats associated with this
line look to be damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. After the threat diminishes Wednesday evening
as the cold front departs to the east, gusty west/northwest winds
can be expected overnight and into the day Thursday, with some
gusts reaching as high as 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Strong gusty winds will remain possible under a tight pressure
gradient through Saturday. Wind headlines will likely be issued in
the wake of the severe weather today. At times, winds my be
sustained over 20mph, with gusts over 40mph possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters may be needed throughout the day
Wednesday.

44

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
931 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

TXZ150>153-165-166-271530-
Panola TX-Angelina TX-Nacogdoches TX-San Augustine TX-Rusk TX-
Shelby TX-
931 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central Panola,
southeastern Rusk, Nacogdoches, Shelby, Angelina and San Augustine
Counties through 1030 AM CDT...

At 930 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Minden to near Nacogdoches to
8 miles southeast of Diboll. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Center, Diboll, Huntington, San Augustine,
Tenaha, Timpson, Garrison, Joaquin, Melrose, Martinsville, Bland
Lake, Neuville, Trawick, Woden, Macune, Etoile, Shelbyville and
Burke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near a lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for Deep East
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 9449 3107 9459 3110 9465 3109 9467
      3112 9478 3156 9472 3197 9481 3200 9405
      3169 9400 3144 9402 3141 9404 3137 9402
      3134 9404 3131 9405 3126 9403 3116 9405
      3112 9404 3103 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1430Z 257DEG 32KT 3191 9469 3158 9458 3110 9469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
941 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

TXZ097-109>112-125-126-137-138-150-271545-
Upshur TX-Gregg TX-Harrison TX-Cass TX-Camp TX-Bowie TX-Marion TX-
Morris TX-Rusk TX-Titus TX-
941 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Marion, Cass,
Harrison, northeastern Rusk, southwestern Bowie, eastern Upshur,
Morris, southeastern Titus, eastern Camp and Gregg Counties through
1045 AM CDT...

At 941 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Cookville to near Daingerfield to near Diana to
6 miles southeast of Longview. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Longview, Marshall, Mount Pleasant, Kilgore, White Oak, New Boston,
Hallsville, Daingerfield, Jefferson, Linden, Hughes Springs, Lone
Star, Naples, Ore City, Maud, Omaha, East Mountain, Cason, Us 259 And
I 30 Intersection and Rocky Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 9500 3345 9438 3322 9428 3293 9422
      3260 9425 3240 9429 3237 9446 3239 9449
      3237 9449 3230 9487 3257 9484 3286 9487
      3306 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 227DEG 29KT 3320 9487 3300 9477 3264 9469 3243
9471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
955 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LUFKIN                  31.34N 94.73W
10/27/2021                   ANGELINA           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LUFKIN PD REPORTS SEVERAL BULLETIN BOARDS
            DOWN, TREES, POWER LINES DOWN IN THE
            DOWNTOWN AREA ABOUT A BLOCK FROM THE POLICE
            STATION.

&&

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1008 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

LAZ001-010-TXZ138-151-271615-
De Soto LA-Caddo LA-Panola TX-Harrison TX-
1008 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern De Soto
and southwestern Caddo Parishes, southeastern Harrison and Panola
Counties through 1115 AM CDT...

At 1007 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Tatum to 6 miles north of
Timpson. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Shreveport, Carthage, Mansfield, Greenwood, Stonewall, Tatum,
Beckville, Deberry, Elysian Fields, South Mansfield, Gary City,
Keachi, Grand Cane, Longstreet, Keat Chie, Front, Spring Ridge,
Kingston, Midyett and Kickapoo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near a lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for northwestern
Louisiana...and northeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 9452 3237 9449 3249 9373 3202 9365
      3198 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1507Z 261DEG 32KT 3236 9443 3200 9437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

16