Areal Flood Warning 80, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
539 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Cooler through Sunday night, then trending increasingly above
normal.

2. Dry through the next 7 days and probably through the end of
the month.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 214 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

Rain will continue to exit the area early this morning as a cold
front moves through. Clouds will linger across much of the area
today as an upper trough moves into the area. Temperatures will be
just a little below normal through Sunday night. Highs today and
Sunday will be in the low to mid 40s while lows tonight and Sunday
night will be in the upper teens to mid 20s. Overnight winds will
be light so wind chills will not be a factor in most locations.

Normal highs for SGF are in the mid 40s and normal lows are in the
mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 214 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

Long story short in the long range is that it will be dry with
above normal temperatures over at least the next week and probably
through the end of the month.

Precipitation chances through the end of the month:

Looking at ECMWF, GEFS, and GEPS ensemble probabilities of >0.1"
of rain in any 24 hour period, the highest values through the end
of the month are generally around 20%. Most time frames are 10% or
less. This is backed up by CPC outlooks showing preference for
below normal precipitation.

Temperatures through the end of the month:

Great agreement between ensemble systems showing increasing
positive temperature anomalies through the end of next week, then
continued positive values through the end of the month. This is
backed up by CPC outlooks showing preference for above normal
temperatures. More specifically, Monday and Tuesday will see
highs around 50, gradually increasing into the 60s by next
weekend. Lows increase from the 20s Monday night to the 40s by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

Rain has ended at all TAF sites, with no rain expected through at
least the next week.

At KJLN, low clouds have scattered out, which will also occur at
KSGF and KBBG in the next few hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-190900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
300 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

 Limited flooding risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Flooding will be continue to be possible over far southern
  Missouri into this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

  No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
716 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW KIRBYVILLE        36.63N 93.18W
12/18/2021  M4.19 INCH       TANEY              MO   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL. COCORAHS STATION MO-TY1.

&&

TITUS