Areal Flood Warning 19, NWS Springfield, MO

825 
WGUS83 KSGF 131308
FLSSGF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
708 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

MOC009-043-209-213-131930-
/O.CON.KSGF.FA.W.0019.000000T0000Z-210313T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barry MO-Christian MO-Stone MO-Taney MO-
708 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON 
FOR BARRY, CHRISTIAN, STONE AND TANEY COUNTIES...

At 708 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated light to moderate rainfall 
across the warned area. Between 1 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. 
Widespread flooding is ongoing, however, rainfall is expected to 
dissipate later today.

This includes the following low water crossings...
  Flat Creek at Highway U, Flat Creek at Highway C, Bear Creek at 
  Reno Springs Road, Stout Creek at Hull Ford Road, Brushy Creek at 
  Highway 125, Finley River at Johns Ford Road, and Trigger Creek at 
  Highway J.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 9361 3710 9361 3709 9290 3681 9291
      3681 9276 3650 9277 3650 9408 3693 9406

$$

DC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1122 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Rain continues across the northern portions of the Ozarks into
central missouri this afternoon. This was occurring along and
north of the 850mb front which has stalled in the area. The
surface front was currently settled along the Arkansas state
line. In between the two, scattered showers were occuring. near
the surface front. Low clouds, likely status build down, was
bouncing visibilities to below a half mile. This has been fairly
localized but will monitor as we head into the late afternoon.

Instability has been limited at best with CAPE values struggling
to reach 200 to 300 J/kg. With weak lapse rates as well, any
storm updraft that can develop will likely struggle to produce
more than small hail.

While portions of the Ozarks have seen a respite from the rain
today, a deepening storm system in the central Rockies will bring
additional moisture and energy into the region this evening and
overnight tonight. The frontal boundaries are expected to move
very little over the next 24 hours. As rain spreads across the
region tonight, the upslope across the area will aid in producing
additional heavy rainfall in addition to the 1 to 3 inches that
have already fallen through early this afternoon.

A flood watch remains in effect through Saturday as a result with
and additional rainfall amounts from 1-3 inches possible.

Models have been rather persistent in developing a ridge over the
area Saturday afternoon in to the evening which would help shift
the rain north of the area. Flooding will likely linger from
rainfall earlier in the day, but a dry period is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Saturday night may see a few showers but should remain mostly dry
before the upper level storm system in the Plains moves a cold
front into the Ozarks during the day Sunday. With the upper low
sill rather far west of the area, the cold front will likely make
slow progression across the region Sunday, finally exiting east of
the area Monday morning. Will need to monitor this period for
another Flood Watch as the slow movement of the front, ample
moisture and potential for training storms will again allow for
heavy rainfall potential. An additional 1-2 inches of rain will
again be possible with the potential for locally higher amounts.

Overall, by Monday morning some locations may have received 6 or
more inches of rainfall.

While cloud cover will remain behind the cold front for Monday as
the core of the upper level low moves across Missouri, much of
the area will be dry. A few showers or drizzle may be possible
near the low, should not be very impactful.

The dry weather over the next 7 days will be short lived however
as another system is expected to bring rain to the region for the
middle of next week and possible again late into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

Widespread showers with isolated storms have moved back into
southern Missouri this evening. Variable flight conditions can be
expected through the remainder of the night with ceilings and
visibilities bouncing around from IFR to VFR. Occasional showers
and storms will affect the TAf sites through at least midday
Saturday. THis rain will then end from west to east Saturday
afternoon, but at this point, short term models are not
indicating much rise in the ceilings and in fact may stay IFR
through 06Z Sunday. Later TAF updates will have a better handle on
the potential for improving flight conditions after 18Z Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
834 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-140245-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
834 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight.
  Flooding and flash flooding is expected as rainfall rates begin to
  increase. Localized significant flash flooding can not be ruled
  out in localized areas where training thunderstorms occur.

  Some of the more robust thunderstorms this evening and tonight
  could produce small hail and wind gusts in excess of 50 mph.
  Widespread or significant severe weather is not expected.

  Areas of fog will be likely across far southern Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning.
  This activity is expected to exit the Ozarks region by Saturday
  afternoon.

  Another round of showers and thunderstorms will occur Sunday.
  This activity will be widespread in nature, and carry a risk for
  additional flooding. No severe weather is expected on Sunday.

  Additional rain is that forecast for the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
753 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLOOD            4 SSW RICHLAND          37.80N 92.43W
03/12/2021                   LACLEDE            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY FF IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AT THE
            BEAR CREEK LOW WATER CROSSING.

&&

CKR