River Flood Warning 94, NWS Seattle, WA

225 
WGUS86 KSEW 290029
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
429 PM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

.Heavy rain from Saturday through tonight will drive the lower 
Skagit and lower Nooksack Rivers above flood stage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by late tonight at 1230 AM PST.

&&


WAC057-290830-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0094.211129T0240Z-211201T0024Z/
/MVEW1.2.ER.211129T0240Z.211130T0000Z.211130T1223Z.NO/
429 PM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood from Sedro 
  Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth. Flood waters 
  will inundate some low-lying roads...farmlands and residential 
  areas. This level for this location on the Skagit corresponds to a 
  phase 3 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 AM PST Sunday the stage was 24.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this evening to a crest of 30.4 feet tomorrow afternoon. It
    will then fall below flood stage early Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    31.2 feet on 11/11/1989.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

18

614 
WGUS86 KSEW 290813
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1213 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

.Heavy rain from Saturday and Sunday will keep the lower Skagit 
River above flood stage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this morning at 1030 AM PST.

&&


WAC057-291830-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-211130T2340Z/
/MVEW1.2.ER.211129T0348Z.211130T0000Z.211130T1140Z.NO/
1213 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood from Sedro 
  Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth. Flood waters 
  will inundate some low-lying roads...farmlands and residential 
  areas. This level for this location on the Skagit corresponds to a 
  phase 3 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:45 PM PST Sunday the stage was 28.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:45 PM PST Sunday was 28.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 30.4 feet late this
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late tonight
    to 24.2 feet.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    30.3 feet on 10/26/1945.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

45

671 
WGUS86 KSEW 291121
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
321 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

.Heavy rain from Saturday and Sunday will keep the lower Skagit 
River above flood stage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 100 PM PST.

&&


WAC057-292100-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-211130T2310Z/
/MVEW1.2.ER.211129T0348Z.211130T0000Z.211130T1110Z.NO/
321 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 30.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood from Sedro 
  Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth. Flood waters 
  will inundate some low-lying roads...farmlands and residential 
  areas. This level for this location on the Skagit corresponds to a 
  phase 3 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:45 AM PST Monday the stage was 28.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 2:45 AM PST Monday was 28.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 30.0 feet late this
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late tonight
    to 24.4 feet.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    29.9 feet on 12/13/2010.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

45

424 
WGUS86 KSEW 291823
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1023 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Samish River At Burlington affecting Skagit County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

.Clouds and a few showers today will allow the rivers to 
crest and recede today.Flooding will continue until the flood waters 
have drained out of the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 245 PM PST.

&&


WAC057-292245-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-211129T2237Z/
/SMRW1.1.ER.211128T2326Z.211129T0530Z.211129T1337Z.NO/
1023 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...No additional flooding is currently forecast.

* WHERE...Samish River At Burlington.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM PST Monday the flow was 2760.0 cfs.
  - Forecast...The river has fallen below flood flow and will
    continue to fall. Flooding will continue until the flood wave
    has passed downstream.
  - Flood flow is 3000.0 cfs.
  - Flood History...No available flood history.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4851 12233 4850 12241 4856 12248 4858 12244
      4853 12238 4856 12234


$$

WAC057-300230-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-211130T1809Z/
/MVEW1.1.ER.211129T0348Z.211130T0000Z.211130T0609Z.NO/
1023 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will cause minor flooding 
  from Sedro Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth...
  with shallow flooding in low pasture lands and over a few 
  low-lying roads near the river. This level for this location on 
  the Skagit corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County 
  flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM PST Monday the stage was 29.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:45 AM PST Monday was 29.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will crest around 29.4 feet late this
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late this
    evening. It will begin rising again early Wednesday morning
    but is forecast to remain below flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    29.3 feet on 07/10/1997.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

WAC057-300230-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-211130T0304Z/
/CONW1.1.ER.211128T1647Z.211129T0815Z.211129T1504Z.NO/
1023 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...No additional flooding is currently forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Concrete.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM PST Monday the stage was 27.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river has fallen below flood flow and will
    continue to fall. Flooding will continue until the flood wave
    has passed downstream.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    27.0 feet on 01/10/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

JBB

355 
WGUS86 KSEW 300048
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

  Nooksack River At Ferndale affecting Whatcom County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River At Potlatch affecting Mason County.

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

.Clouds and a few showers today will allow the rivers to 
recede tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this evening at 715 PM PST.

&&


WAC057-300900-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-211130T1908Z/
/MVEW1.1.ER.211129T0348Z.211129T2030Z.211130T0708Z.NO/
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will cause minor flooding 
  from Sedro Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth...
  with shallow flooding in low pasture lands and over a few 
  low-lying roads near the river. This level for this location on 
  the Skagit corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County 
  flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:15 PM PST Monday the stage was 29.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:15 PM PST Monday was 29.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this evening and continue falling. Additional rises are
    expected Wednesday.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    29.1 feet on 12/11/2004.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

WAC073-300900-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-211130T2019Z/
/NKSW1.2.ER.211129T0426Z.211129T2000Z.211130T1238Z.NO/
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Nooksack River At Ferndale.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.5 feet, the Nooksack River will overflow levees 
  and banks along the east bank of the river from Hovander Park 
  downstream to Marietta, causing widespread flooding from near 
  Ferndale downstream to the mouth...with swift waters in 
  residential areas and over farm lands and roads. Erosion may 
  damage some river banks.


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:15 PM PST Monday the stage was 20.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:15 PM PST Monday was 21.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tonight. It will then rise again Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    20.8 feet on 10/21/2003.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4889 12247 4887 12253 4878 12254 4876 12263
      4891 12262 4896 12247


$$

WAC045-300900-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-211130T1116Z/
/SRPW1.1.ER.211128T0633Z.211129T0600Z.211130T0216Z.NO/
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Skokomish River At Potlatch.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 16.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands, with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM PST Monday the stage was 16.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this evening and continue falling.
  - Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    16.5 feet on 01/07/2007.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308
      4721 12321 4738 12340


$$

WAC057-300315-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-211130T0304Z/
/CONW1.1.ER.211128T1647Z.211129T0815Z.211129T1504Z.NO/
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...No additional flooding is currently forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Concrete.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:30 PM PST Monday the stage was 26.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river fell below flood stage around 7 am this
    morning and will continue to fall. It will begin rising late
    tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    27.0 feet on 01/10/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

JBB

765 
WGUS86 KSEW 300839
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1239 AM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

.Rivers will continue to recede tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this morning at 845 AM PST.

&&


WAC057-301645-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-211130T1746Z/
/MVEW1.1.ER.211129T0348Z.211129T2030Z.211130T0911Z.NO/
1239 AM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE 
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...Until late this morning.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will cause minor flooding 
  from Sedro Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth...
  with shallow flooding in low pasture lands and over a few 
  low-lying roads near the river. This level for this location on 
  the Skagit corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County 
  flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 AM PST Tuesday the stage was 28.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 12:15 AM PST Tuesday was 29.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    early this morning and continue falling. Additional rises are
    expected Wednesday.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    28.2 feet on 11/26/1950.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

Pullin

631 
WGUS86 KSEW 301639
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
839 AM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

  Nooksack River At Ferndale affecting Whatcom County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 1215 PM PST.

&&


WAC057-302015-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-211130T2012Z/
/MVEW1.1.ER.211129T0348Z.211129T2030Z.211130T0812Z.NO/
839 AM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...No additional flooding is currently forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 AM PST Tuesday the stage was 27.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to continue falling for a
    few more hours then begin to rise, approaching flood stage,
    to a crest of 26.8 feet late tomorrow evening.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    26.1 feet on 11/28/2011.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

WAC073-010045-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-211201T0031Z/
/NKSW1.2.ER.211129T0426Z.211129T2000Z.211130T1503Z.NO/
839 AM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Nooksack River At Ferndale.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, the river begins overtopping its banks 
  within the City of Ferndale flooding low-lying areas within the 
  City and low pasture lands along the river from near Ferndale 
  downstream to the mouth.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 AM PST Tuesday the stage was 17.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will continue falling into this
    afternoon then will begin rising again late this evening. It
    will rise above flood stage tomorrow morning and continue to
    rise to 18.6 feet tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below
    flood stage tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    18.4 feet on 01/09/2002.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4889 12247 4887 12253 4878 12254 4876 12263
      4891 12262 4896 12247


$$

JBB

534 
WGUS86 KSEW 302004
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1204 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

WAC057-302115-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-211130T2004Z/
/MVEW1.1.ER.211129T0348Z.211129T2025Z.211130T0730Z.NO/
1204 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED THIS MORNING...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 AM PST Tuesday the stage was 26.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:30 AM PST Tuesday was 29.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is below flood stage and will continue
    to fall. It will then begin to rise again this afternoon. It
    is expected to rise above flood stage tomorrow morning to a
    crest of 29.8 feet late tomorrow evening. It will then fall
    below flood stage early Thursday afternoon.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

JBB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
849 AM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

.UPDATE /0900 AM/...Multiple river flood warnings are in effect
this morning as persistent rainfall occurred during the
overnight. This band of precipitation is still situated over the
North Olympic Peninsula as well as Whatcom and Skagit counties.
This band is expected to be shifting southward throughout the day.
Rain is still expected to be persistent into Monday afternoon,
especially for the Central Cascade region. This rain will taper
off just in time for the next weather system to make its way to
the area Tuesday.

The river forecast as well as river flood warnings will change
throughout the day. Everyone is urged to stay aware of changing
conditions not only around them but throughout the region. And
remember do not drive through flooded streets, not only is the
depth of the water uncertain but the stability of the ground below
the surface is as well.

The previous forecast discussion with updated aviation and marine
sections is below.

Butwin

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Persistent rainfall will continue across Western
Washington through today, yielding river and aerial flooding, as
well as the threat for landslides. Following additional rainfall
during the day Monday, another AR will reach Western Washington by
midweek bringing additional excessive rainfall to the region.
Drier and cooler conditions possible Friday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The persistent moderate
rainband has shifted northward with the warm front at this hour
with the heaviest rain occuring north of the border in SW British
Columbia. That said, rainfall continues across the northwestern
Olympic Peninsula, as well as northern Skagit and Whatcom counties
at this hour. In the past 6 hours, points in these locations have
seen anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with amounts
already in the 2 to 3 inch range at elevation in the past 24
hours. Rainfall efficiency remains high at this hour in this band
as a tongue of PWAT values ranging from 1 to 1.25" is draped
across these areas. The potential for impacts associated with
areal flooding and landslides will remain high across these areas
through much of the day. Excess runoff is already causing rivers
in these areas to rise, with additional rainfall expected through
this afternoon.

To the south of this corridor, rainfall has tapered off at this
hour, with higher winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Southerly
winds will generally gust between 30 to 40 mph at times across Puget
Sound, with a few isolated gusts to 45 mph possible - particularly
from the Admiralty Inlet area, Whidbey Island and into coastal
portions of Snohomish County. Expect winds to remain elevated
through the mid-morning hours before steady rain returns to the area.

Confidence is high in the band of persistent rainfall sagging
southward across the region, starting after daybreak and continuing
through the day as the cold front pushes southeastward across the
region. Most individual members of the HREF stall the front
somewhere between Tacoma and Chehalis this evening with steady
rain remaining focused in this area. Short range ensemble guidance
shows a shortwave trough axis swinging through the region between
12 and 18Z and amplifying the band of rain on Monday before rain
tapers off Monday evening. As a result, QPF in the central and
southern Cascades is higher on Monday with the forecast package
tonight. Given the environment in place, expect short-fused urban
and small stream flooding to be a threat along with landslides and
rising rivers through the day. See the hydrology section below
for specific details.

Also associated with the aforementioned trough will be the potential
for an isolated thunderstorm or two across Whatcom and Skagit
Counties. Mid-level (H500) temperatures will cool to around -25
degrees C as the trough axis swings through. This, coupled with a
speed max crossing the region will provide an environment capable of
briefly supporting thunder Monday afternoon.

Expect temperatures to remain steady across the region today, with
only minimal dynamic cooling in areas of rain as the front comes
through. High temperature readings have likely already occurred this
morning as warm air advection was still notable at midnight and has
since leveled off. Temperatures will remain relatively warm and
steady on Monday, with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low
50s.

Pullin

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Wet and active weather
will persist through the long term period as several systems will
bring additional rainfall and periods of gusty winds to Western
Washington that will exacerbate impacts region wide. Another AR
event of similar strength as the one currently affecting the
region will reach the area on Tuesday with rainfall persisting
through Thursday. New ensemble guidance brings the plume of
moisture further south than the 00Z and 12Z guidance from
yesterday. Freezing levels look similar as well - generally
ranging from 9,000 to 10,000 feet at event onset before settling
between 8,000 to 9,000 feet through the event. Rainfall amounts
look similar to the current event, with the interior lowlands
generally seeing 1- 2" of rainfall, the Olympics and
Central/Northern Cascades seeing 2- 4", locally up to 6" in spots,
and the Olympic coast seeing 1-3", with the highest totals on the
north coast. This additional rainfall will cause another response
on area rivers, with additional flooding possible. Saturated
soils will also keep the threat for landslides and aerial flooding
high through this event.

As has been the case with this system, a period of rain shadowing
will be possible across the central and northern Puget Sound, which
would promote a period of gusty winds. Given saturated ground, more
notable impacts with respect to power outages and tree damage are
not out of the question. This will also likely add extra pressure to
area bluffs, potentially being a trigger for landslides.

Current model guidance has precipitation tapering off on Thursday
with Western Washington remaining in a quasi-zonal flow regime with
high pressure remaining stout over the southwest coast. This will
keep the door open for additional systems bringing periods of rain
Friday into next weekend.

Temperatures wise, expect 50s for highs and upper 40s for lows
through Thursday before temperatures cool into the 30s and 40s for
the weekend.

Pullin

&&

.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft will continue today and tonight. A
cold front draped across the northwest part of the state this
morning will slide southeast through the area this afternoon and
evening. The air mass will be moist and stable today. It will
become slightly unstable across the far north part of the area
tonight.

Ceilings have lifted a bit over the central and south part of the
interior this morning after a warm front lifted through the area
last night. Ceilings should lower back down as the cold front
slides through later today.

KSEA...Ceilings should lower again late this morning or early
afternoon as rain returns. It looks to stay pretty soupy in the
wake of the front tonight with lower clouds lingering into Monday
morning. Gusty south winds 10-20 knots should ease today. 16

&&

.MARINE...A front will slide southeast through the area today.
Small craft advisory strength winds for parts of the area will
gradually ease today. West swell around 9 feet at 9 seconds will
linger over the Coastal Waters and West Entrance Strait of Juan de
Fuca today then subside tonight.

There will be lull in the active weather on Monday in between
weather systems. A second frontal system will move through the
area Tuesday and Tuesday night for another round of small craft
advisory strength winds most waters. Winds will be lighter
Wednesday and Thursday with weak onshore flow.

West swell over the Coastal Waters and West Entrance Strait of
Juan de Fuca will build to 10-13 feet Tuesday night and remain in
that general range through Thursday. 16

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A wet and warm frontal system will continue to bring
rain to the area through the day today, possibly into early Monday.
The focus of precipitation went further north and for longer than
forecast, and this bigger break will delay, and to some not-
fully- known extent, lower the river crests. Still, river flooding
remains an issue into the start of the new week = especially for
rivers flowing out of the Olympics and the northern and central
Washington Cascades. A flood watch remains in effect for much of
the area, with flood warnings also in effect for several
locations. The extent of expected river flooding varies throughout
the region, with minor to moderate flooding the general rule.
Major flooding no long looks likely. The current forecast
continues to reflect most locations cresting sometime today
-
however - the Skagit River at Mount Vernon and the Nooksack River at
Ferndale will likely not crest until sometime much later - likely
Monday afternoon.

A second frontal system will affect the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, and although confidence is still lower with this system -
ensembles now suggesting a shift in the precipitation further south.
This scenario starting to look very similar to what is expected
through the day today - that is, the heaviest precipitation expected
over the Olympics, and North and Central Washington Cascades. This
certainly would complicate the impacts on area rivers as it would be
following on the heels of a very similar event. The ongoing
precipitation will keep the risk of landslides elevated well into
next week.

Cook/JBB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Admiralty Inlet Area-
     Bellevue and Vicinity-Cascades of Snohomish and King
     Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Central
     Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de
     Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis
     Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-Seattle and Vicinity-
     Western Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-
     Western Whatcom County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Admiralty Inlet
     Area-Everett and Vicinity.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Admiralty
     Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-
     Puget Sound and Hood Canal.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for West
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

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