River Flood Warning 92, NWS Seattle, WA

768 
WGUS86 KSEW 281725
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
925 AM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

  Nooksack River At North Cedarville affecting Whatcom County.

  South Fork Nooksack River At Saxon Bridge affecting Whatcom 
  County.

.Moderate to heavy rain has returned to the North Washington 
Cascades and will continue through Sunday night. The break in 
rainfall overnight has
delayed and lowered the expected river crests.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 530 PM PST.

&&


WAC057-290130-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-211130T0502Z/
/CONW1.1.ER.211128T1647Z.211129T0600Z.211129T1702Z.NO/
925 AM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Concrete.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood low areas and 
  sections of roads along the river from Rockport downstream to 
  Sedro Woolley. This level for this location on the Skagit 
  corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM PST Sunday the stage was 28.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 AM PST Sunday was 28.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 29.6
    feet late this evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    29.4 feet on 02/08/1945.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

WAC073-290130-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0088.000000T0000Z-211129T1925Z/
/NRKW1.1.ER.211128T2345Z.211129T0600Z.211129T1025Z.NO/
925 AM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Nooksack River At North Cedarville.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 146.5 feet, the Nooksack River will cause shallow 
  flooding of low pasture lands along the river downstream through 
  Lynden.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 AM PST Sunday the stage was 144.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this afternoon to a crest of 146.8 feet late this
    evening. It will then fall below flood stage just after
    midnight tonight.
  - Flood stage is 146.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    146.6 feet on 11/26/2009.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4880 12224 4885 12236 4889 12247 4896 12247
      4895 12233 4882 12215


$$

WAC073-290130-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-211129T1226Z/
/NSSW1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
925 AM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...No flooding is currently forecast.

* WHERE...South Fork Nooksack River At Saxon Bridge.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM PST Sunday the stage was 6.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage,
    at around a crest of 7.5 feet late this afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    7.2 feet on 10/17/2009.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4865 12219 4871 12226 4880 12224 4882 12215
      4873 12215 4865 12208


$$

JBB

243 
WGUS86 KSEW 290053
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
453 PM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

.Rain has turned into showers over the Northern Cascades this 
evening. The river is still reacting to rains earlier in the day 
which may allow for some additional rises before waters begin to 
recede Monday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by late tonight at 100 AM PST.

&&


WAC057-290900-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-211130T0502Z/
/CONW1.1.ER.211128T1647Z.211129T0600Z.211129T1702Z.NO/
453 PM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Concrete.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood low areas and 
  sections of roads along the river from Rockport downstream to 
  Sedro Woolley. This level for this location on the Skagit 
  corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM PST Sunday the stage was 28.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 AM PST Sunday was 28.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 29.2
    feet late this evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    29.4 feet on 02/08/1945.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

18

451 
WGUS46 KSEW 290827
FLWSEW

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1227 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Washington...

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

.Rain has turned into showers over the Northern Cascades this 
evening. The river is still reacting to rains earlier in the day 
which may allow for some additional rises before waters begin to 
recede Monday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 100 PM PST.

&&


WAC057-291800-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-211130T0752Z/
/CONW1.2.ER.211128T1647Z.211129T1200Z.211129T1952Z.NO/
1227 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Concrete.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood low areas and 
  sections of roads along the river from Rockport downstream to 
  Sedro Woolley. This level for this location on the Skagit 
  corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:45 PM PST Sunday the stage was 29.4 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:45 PM PST Sunday was 29.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 30.1 feet early this
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage late this
    morning to 23.5 feet.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    29.9 feet on 10/09/1928.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

45

924 
WGUS86 KSEW 291129
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
329 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

.Rain has turned into showers over the Northern Cascades. The river 
remains above flood stage but waters will continue to recede through 
the day today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 100 PM PST.

&&


WAC057-292100-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-211130T0713Z/
/CONW1.1.ER.211128T1647Z.211129T0815Z.211129T1913Z.NO/
329 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Concrete.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood low areas and 
  sections of roads along the river from Rockport downstream to 
  Sedro Woolley. This level for this location on the Skagit 
  corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:15 AM PST Monday the stage was 29.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 3:15 AM PST Monday was 29.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 29.5 feet early this
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage late this
    morning to 23.7 feet.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    29.4 feet on 02/08/1945.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

45

424 
WGUS86 KSEW 291823
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1023 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Samish River At Burlington affecting Skagit County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

.Clouds and a few showers today will allow the rivers to 
crest and recede today.Flooding will continue until the flood waters 
have drained out of the area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this afternoon at 245 PM PST.

&&


WAC057-292245-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-211129T2237Z/
/SMRW1.1.ER.211128T2326Z.211129T0530Z.211129T1337Z.NO/
1023 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...No additional flooding is currently forecast.

* WHERE...Samish River At Burlington.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 AM PST Monday the flow was 2760.0 cfs.
  - Forecast...The river has fallen below flood flow and will
    continue to fall. Flooding will continue until the flood wave
    has passed downstream.
  - Flood flow is 3000.0 cfs.
  - Flood History...No available flood history.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4851 12233 4850 12241 4856 12248 4858 12244
      4853 12238 4856 12234


$$

WAC057-300230-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-211130T1809Z/
/MVEW1.1.ER.211129T0348Z.211130T0000Z.211130T0609Z.NO/
1023 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will cause minor flooding 
  from Sedro Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth...
  with shallow flooding in low pasture lands and over a few 
  low-lying roads near the river. This level for this location on 
  the Skagit corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County 
  flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM PST Monday the stage was 29.3 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:45 AM PST Monday was 29.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will crest around 29.4 feet late this
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late this
    evening. It will begin rising again early Wednesday morning
    but is forecast to remain below flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    29.3 feet on 07/10/1997.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

WAC057-300230-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-211130T0304Z/
/CONW1.1.ER.211128T1647Z.211129T0815Z.211129T1504Z.NO/
1023 AM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...No additional flooding is currently forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Concrete.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM PST Monday the stage was 27.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river has fallen below flood flow and will
    continue to fall. Flooding will continue until the flood wave
    has passed downstream.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    27.0 feet on 01/10/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

JBB

355 
WGUS86 KSEW 300048
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.

  Nooksack River At Ferndale affecting Whatcom County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River At Potlatch affecting Mason County.

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

.Clouds and a few showers today will allow the rivers to 
recede tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this evening at 715 PM PST.

&&


WAC057-300900-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-211130T1908Z/
/MVEW1.1.ER.211129T0348Z.211129T2030Z.211130T0708Z.NO/
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Mt. Vernon.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will cause minor flooding 
  from Sedro Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth...
  with shallow flooding in low pasture lands and over a few 
  low-lying roads near the river. This level for this location on 
  the Skagit corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County 
  flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:15 PM PST Monday the stage was 29.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:15 PM PST Monday was 29.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this evening and continue falling. Additional rises are
    expected Wednesday.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    29.1 feet on 12/11/2004.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250
      4845 12240 4853 12227


$$

WAC073-300900-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-211130T2019Z/
/NKSW1.2.ER.211129T0426Z.211129T2000Z.211130T1238Z.NO/
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Nooksack River At Ferndale.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 20.5 feet, the Nooksack River will overflow levees 
  and banks along the east bank of the river from Hovander Park 
  downstream to Marietta, causing widespread flooding from near 
  Ferndale downstream to the mouth...with swift waters in 
  residential areas and over farm lands and roads. Erosion may 
  damage some river banks.


* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:15 PM PST Monday the stage was 20.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 4:15 PM PST Monday was 21.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tonight. It will then rise again Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    20.8 feet on 10/21/2003.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4889 12247 4887 12253 4878 12254 4876 12263
      4891 12262 4896 12247


$$

WAC045-300900-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-211130T1116Z/
/SRPW1.1.ER.211128T0633Z.211129T0600Z.211130T0216Z.NO/
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Skokomish River At Potlatch.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 16.5 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands, with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM PST Monday the stage was 16.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this evening and continue falling.
  - Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    16.5 feet on 01/07/2007.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308
      4721 12321 4738 12340


$$

WAC057-300315-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-211130T0304Z/
/CONW1.1.ER.211128T1647Z.211129T0815Z.211129T1504Z.NO/
448 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...No additional flooding is currently forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Concrete.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:30 PM PST Monday the stage was 26.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river fell below flood stage around 7 am this
    morning and will continue to fall. It will begin rising late
    tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    27.0 feet on 01/10/2006.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

JBB

392 
WGUS86 KSEW 300308
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
708 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...The Flood Warning is expired for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

.The river continues to fall this evening.

WAC057-300415-
/O.EXP.KSEW.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-211130T0304Z/
/CONW1.1.ER.211128T1647Z.211129T0815Z.211129T1504Z.NO/
708 PM PST Mon Nov 29 2021

...FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED THIS EVENING...

The Flood Warning has expired for
  the Skagit River Near Concrete.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:30 PM PST Monday the stage was 26.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will fall to 24.8 feet and then begin
    rising late tomorrow morning. It will then rise again to 27.3
    feet late Wednesday morning, before falling to 26.4 feet late
    Wednesday.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
312 AM PST Sun Nov 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Persistent rainfall will continue across Western
Washington through today, yielding river and aerial flooding, as
well as the threat for landslides. Following additional rainfall
during the day Monday, another AR will reach Western Washington by
midweek bringing additional excessive rainfall to the region.
Drier and cooler conditions possible Friday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...The persistent moderate
rainband has shifted northward with the warm front at this hour
with the heaviest rain occuring north of the border in SW British
Columbia. That said, rainfall continues across the northwestern
Olympic Peninsula, as well as northern Skagit and Whatcom counties
at this hour. In the past 6 hours, points in these locations have
seen anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with amounts
already in the 2 to 3 inch range at elevation in the past 24
hours. Rainfall efficiency remains high at this hour in this band
as a tongue of PWAT values ranging from 1 to 1.25" is draped
across these areas. The potential for impacts associated with
areal flooding and landslides will remain high across these areas
through much of the day. Excess runoff is already causing rivers
in these areas to rise, with additional rainfall expected through
this afternoon.

To the south of this corridor, rainfall has tapered off at this
hour, with higher winds aloft mixing down to the surface. Southerly
winds will generally gust between 30 to 40 mph at times across Puget
Sound, with a few isolated gusts to 45 mph possible - particularly
from the Admiralty Inlet area, Whidbey Island and into coastal
portions of Snohomish County. Expect winds to remain elevated
through the mid-morning hours before steady rain returns to the area.

Confidence is high in the band of persistent rainfall sagging
southward across the region, starting after daybreak and continuing
through the day as the cold front pushes southeastward across the
region. Most individual members of the HREF stall the front
somewhere between Tacoma and Chehalis this evening with steady
rain remaining focused in this area. Short range ensemble guidance
shows a shortwave trough axis swinging through the region between
12 and 18Z and amplifying the band of rain on Monday before rain
tapers off Monday evening. As a result, QPF in the central and
southern Cascades is higher on Monday with the forecast package
tonight. Given the environment in place, expect short-fused urban
and small stream flooding to be a threat along with landslides and
rising rivers through the day. See the hydrology section below
for specific details.

Also associated with the aforementioned trough will be the potential
for an isolated thunderstorm or two across Whatcom and Skagit
Counties. Mid-level (H500) temperatures will cool to around -25
degrees C as the trough axis swings through. This, coupled with a
speed max crossing the region will provide an environment capable of
briefly supporting thunder Monday afternoon.

Expect temperatures to remain steady across the region today, with
only minimal dynamic cooling in areas of rain as the front comes
through. High temperature readings have likely already occurred this
morning as warm air advection was still notable at midnight and has
since leveled off. Temperatures will remain relatively warm and
steady on Monday, with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low
50s.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Wet and active weather
will persist through the long term period as several systems will
bring additional rainfall and periods of gusty winds to Western
Washington that will exacerbate impacts region wide. Another AR
event of similar strength as the one currently affecting the
region will reach the area on Tuesday with rainfall persisting
through Thursday. New ensemble guidance brings the plume of
moisture further south than the 00Z and 12Z guidance from
yesterday. Freezing levels look similar as well - generally
ranging from 9,000 to 10,000 feet at event onset before settling
between 8,000 to 9,000 feet through the event. Rainfall amounts
look similar to the current event, with the interior lowlands
generally seeing 1- 2" of rainfall, the Olympics and
Central/Northern Cascades seeing 2- 4", locally up to 6" in spots,
and the Olympic coast seeing 1-3", with the highest totals on the
north coast. This additional rainfall will cause another response
on area rivers, with additional flooding possible. Saturated
soils will also keep the threat for landslides and aerial flooding
high through this event.

As has been the case with this system, a period of rain shadowing
will be possible across the central and northern Puget Sound, which
would promote a period of gusty winds. Given saturated ground, more
notable impacts with respect to power outages and tree damage are
not out of the question. This will also likely add extra pressure to
area bluffs, potentially being a trigger for landslides.

Current model guidance has precipitation tapering off on Thursday
with Western Washington remaining in a quasi-zonal flow regime with
high pressure remaining stout over the southwest coast. This will
keep the door open for additional systems bringing periods of rain
Friday into next weekend.

Temperatures wise, expect 50s for highs and upper 40s for lows
through Thursday before temperatures cool into the 30s and 40s for
the weekend.

Pullin

&&

.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft across the region today. The warm
front is across the region, with plenty of low ceilings and reduced
visibility in clouds and rain, though VFR conditions have developed
in the clearing in the warm sector of the frontal system. Cold front
will push through today with heavy rain that will reduce
visibilities and lower ceilings again today. Breezy southerly winds
early this morning, but winds ease considerably behind the cold
front later today.

KSEA...Expect continued gusty southerly surface winds through the
morning.  Light rain may continue at times with ceilings mostly
around 2500-3000 feet, though expect some fluctuation as main front
remains north. Cold front slowly returns with steady rain and low
MVFR to IFR ceilings around 19-20z into the evening. Moist and
stable air mass likely maintains MVFR ceilings through tonight,
though winds ease late afternoon.

Cullen

&&

.MARINE...Winds will peak in the next few hours, with trailing
small craft advisories over most waters into the afternoon due to
winds (and seas over the coastal waters). Winds will ease later
Sunday with a break in between systems for Monday. Another frontal
system brings a return of advisory strength winds to most waters on
Tuesday. Winds will be lighter Wednesday and Thursday with weak
onshore flow. Seas remain 8 to 11 feet over the coastal waters much
of today, dominated by a short-period component. Seas then gradually
subside to 5-6 feet early in the week, but will likely again build
above 10 feet Tuesday evening behind the next front as a larger west
swell arrives.

Cullen

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A wet and warm frontal system will continue to bring
rain to the area through the day today, possibly into early Monday.
River flooding remains an issue into the start of the new week =
especially for rivers flowing out of the Olympics and the northern
and central Washington Cascades. A flood watch remains in effect for
much of the area, with flood warnings also in effect for several
locations. The extent of expected river flooding varies throughout
the region, with minor to moderate flooding the general rule with
major flooding possible at a few locations. The current forecast
continues to reflect most locations cresting sometime today -
however - the Skagit River at Mount Vernon and the Nooksack River
at Ferndale will likely not crest until sometime much later -
likely Monday afternoon.

A second frontal system will affect the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, and although confidence is still lower with this system -
ensembles now suggesting a shift in the precipitation further south.
This scenario starting to look very similar to what is expected
through the day today - that is, the heaviest precipitation expected
over the Olympics, and North and Central Washington Cascades. This
certainly would complicate the impacts on area rivers as it would be
following on the heels of a very similar event. The ongoing
precipitation will keep the risk of landslides elevated well into
next week.

Cook

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Admiralty Inlet Area-
     Bellevue and Vicinity-Cascades of Snohomish and King
     Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Central
     Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de
     Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis
     Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-Seattle and Vicinity-
     Western Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-
     Western Whatcom County.

PZ...Gale Warning until 8 AM PST this morning for Coastal Waters From
     Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Gale Warning until 5 AM PST early this morning for Admiralty
     Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for Puget Sound and
     Hood Canal.

&&

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