Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
158 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread into
tonight as a cold front passes through the region. This front
will stall over the Southeast on Tuesday, and by Wednesday the
entire area will be rain-free. Another frontal passage is likely
for the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 158 PM EDT Monday...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into
tonight, some drier air will push in from the north on Tuesday.

A cold front will drop south across the region this afternoon
into Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead and along the frontal boundary. The airmass is unstable
with CAPEs at 2000 to 4000 j/kg. The deep layer shear is weak
around 20 kts. The PWATS have climb to 1.5 to 2 inches. Some of
the storms this afternoon will be severe with gusty winds and
heavy downpours. Convection will diminish with the loss of solar
heating tonight. Areas of fog and low clouds will develop
overnight especially where it rains. Isolated to scattered
showers will continue Tuesday as the front drops slowly south
across southern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 119 PM EDT Monday...

Drier and warmer weather is expected for Tuesday night through
Thursday, but a cold front should approach on Thursday night.

Showers and thunderstorms may depart the North Carolina Piedmont to
start Tuesday night, but drier air will arrive from the northwest. A
large upper level ridge will sit over the central Plains throughout
this week, while upper level troughing will persist across eastern
Canada and continue to influence the Mid Atlantic. With a stalled
frontal boundary over South Carolina and weak high pressure entering
the Appalachian Mountains during Tuesday night into Wednesday,
confidence has risen that the weather will turn dry through
Thursday. Less cloud cover and downslope flow east of the Blue Ridge
could bring highs into the mid 90s for Wednesday and Thursday, and
most of the mountains should reach the 80s.

Because of the persistent troughing across eastern Canada, another
cold front will emerge on Thursday over the Great Lakes and reach
West Virginia toward Thursday night. The GFS and the NAM models
remain a few hours faster than the Canadian and the ECMWF models
with the timing of this approaching cold front. Nevertheless, shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase, especially over southeast
West Virginia. If the storms can tap into the instability from the
heat and increasing lift ahead of the frontal boundary, there could
be a risk of strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 119 PM EDT Monday...

A cold front will cross overhead on Friday before high pressure
enters by Saturday, but another cold front may approach late Sunday.

With a cold front passing over Virginia on Friday and reaching North
Carolina toward Friday night, confidence has risen on the chances of
showers and thunderstorms during this time period. Any strong storms
may produce strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. The front
should eventually reach South Carolina on Saturday before stalling
as the boundary becomes more parallel with the upper level flow.
Another area of weak high pressure should enter the Mid Atlantic by
Saturday, but the persistent troughing over eastern Canada may allow
another cold front to venture eastward from the Ohio River Valley by
late Sunday to promote more afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Monday...

A cold front will drop south across the region this afternoon
into Tuesday. Scattered to numerous MVFR convection will develop
ahead and along the frontal boundary. KROA,KDAN and KLYH will
have the highest chances for TSRA this afternoon and evening as
the front sags south. Expecting very heavy rainfall with this
activity. Southwest to west winds will prevail through most of
the period. Winds will be erratic with thunderstorms. Winds
will become light and variable tonight into Tuesday. Patches of
low clouds and fog are expected overnight. Morning low clouds
and fog will lift by late morning return most areas to VFR
conditions Tuesday. Isolated MVFR convection in possible in the
south Tuesday.

Moderate confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during
the taf period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The front will stall to our south Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday, but may bring some SHRA/TSRA to mainly DAN. VFR
appears more likely toward BLF and LWB, with LYH/ROA/BCB seeing
a possibility for scattered showers and storms, but in general
will see prevailing VFR. Wednesday looks dry with prevailing VFR
everywhere.

Another cold front should arrive by late Thursday into Friday
with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms once
again. Given northwest flow aloft across the region thanks to a
building 599 dm ridge in the central/south central U.S.,
disturbances may bring unexpected convection to the area at
times throughout the week. Will need to keep an eye on the upper
midwest/Ohio Valley area. Unsettled weather will return Sunday
with showers and thunderstorms especially in the south and west.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/SH
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
201 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-271815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
201 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia
and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected for this afternoon and
tonight. Localized flooding and damaging winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ004>006-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-271815-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
201 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and
west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday.
Localized flooding and damaging winds are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VAZ018-023-024-034-262330-
Botetourt-Craig-Bedford-Rockbridge-
633 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
EAST CENTRAL CRAIG...SOUTHWESTERN ROCKBRIDGE...NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD
AND BOTETOURT COUNTIES...

At 633 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Arcadia to near Fincastle. Movement was
southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Buchanan...
Troutville...
Fincastle...
Lithia...
Nace...
Laymantown...
and Arcadia.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3769 7955 3746 7943 3735 7991 3736 7994
      3756 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 294DEG 17KT 3756 7966 3753 7995

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
637 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VAZ011-013-014-262330-
Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-
637 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
PULASKI...SOUTH CENTRAL GILES AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
AND THE CITY OF RADFORD...

At 637 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Poplar Hill,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Radford...
Pulaski...
Dublin...
Poplar Hill...
Claytor Dam...
Fairlawn...
and Claytor Lake State Park.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3729 8073 3702 8037 3701 8040 3702 8041
      3701 8041 3701 8042 3702 8043 3701 8044
      3702 8045 3700 8047 3699 8050 3701 8052
      3700 8052 3697 8055 3693 8071 3723 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 315DEG 16KT 3717 8074

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
641 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VAZ018-262315-
Craig-
641 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CRAIG COUNTY...

At 641 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Craig Springs,
or near Sinking Creek, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sinking Creek...
Abbott...
and Craig Springs.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3744 8005 3742 8008 3738 8015 3738 8020
      3734 8026 3736 8031 3746 8040 3749 8035
      3751 8030 3753 8028 3757 8022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 321DEG 16KT 3746 8026

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
702 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VAZ018-262330-
Craig-
702 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CRAIG COUNTY...

At 702 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Maggie, or near
Sinking Creek, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sinking Creek...
Huffman...
Maggie...
and Simmonsville.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3739 8026 3736 8032 3737 8033 3735 8035
      3732 8043 3733 8045 3734 8044 3742 8047
      3743 8046 3748 8037 3749 8036 3749 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 308DEG 19KT 3742 8036

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
708 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

NCZ006-270000-
Caswell-
708 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CASWELL COUNTY...

At 708 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Yanceyville,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Yanceyville...
Jericho...
Topnot...
and Hightowers.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3626 7942 3640 7947 3647 7932 3632 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 242DEG 13KT 3639 7932

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VAZ012-015-016-270015-
Grayson-Wythe-Carroll-
712 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
WYTHE...WESTERN CARROLL AND EASTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
CITY OF GALAX

At 711 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Cripple Creek to near Woodlawn. Movement
was southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Galax...
Hillsville...
Independence...
Fries...
Cana...
Speedwell...
and Fancy Gap.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3657 8114 3683 8117 3682 8079 3656 8065
      3656 8085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 316DEG 15KT 3679 8109 3678 8084

RAB