Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
622 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Our area will remain between low pressure over the midwest
and high pressure off the southeast coast through midweek. A
front approaches toward the second half of the week. So for the
next several days expect more humid weather with a daily threat
of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 620 PM EDT Monday...

Scattered locally heavy rain and a few strong storms with gusty
winds still a threat into mid evening hours.

Updated the PoP and weather grids to reflect more concentrated
areas from Mtn Empire region to SE WV and into Alleghany
Highlands, as well as foothill region of NC, shifting into
Piedmont and southside VA through early evening. Lowered pops
farther east except along and north of weak convergence zone
near and north of LYH area, where sfc-based capes are 2000-2500
J/kg. Do not think that area will completely fill in but some of
teh stronger storms for remainder of the evening will likely
shift to the far northern part of the fcst area. Given low
DCAPES, only an isolated threat for severe winds remainder of
evening, but rainfall rates are 3-5" an hour with some of the
stronger cores so any that slow down or with some back-building
will have a threat for localized flash flooding. As with last
night, storms should steadily weakening after about 8-9pm,
along with threats of localized flooding and any severe wind
potential too.

As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Remaining humid with smattering of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening...

A blanket of stratus over most of the CWA has served to delay
storm initiation by limiting insolation and preventing
destabilization of the atmosphere. First couple of storms have
initiated in the west where the area from Tazewell to Lewisburg
has had clearer skies for the past few hours. Expecting further
storm initiation to be concentrated along and west of the Blue
Ridge, but scattered storms are possible everywhere. Any storms
further east will likely hold off until late afternoon because
of the aforementioned cloud cover.

There won't be widespread rain coverage, but with a PWAT of 1.4"
on the BCB sounding this morning, and model soundings indicating
most of the area having PWATs above 1.5", there is plenty of
moisture to tap into. Storm motion will be sluggish, so
locations that do experience a storm or shower could pick up a
quick half an inch to one inch within an hour. Storms will
dissipate into the evening.

Tuesday will be more of the same, with weak shortwaves swinging
around an upper low positioned in the Midwest. PoPs are a little
higher than today, because expecting less cloud cover than we
are experiencing today. Temperatures and humidity will be above
normal again tomorrow, with highs out east in the upper 80s,
highs in the west in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 103 PM EDT Monday...

The region will remain sandwiched between an upper level ridge over
the southeastern states and an upper low drifting over the upper
Mississippi Valley Wednesday. The combination of weak short waves
and diurnal heating will keep the threat for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Most of these storms will fade during the
mid to late evening. We will start to see a small change in the
weather on Thursday as the low opens into a trough over the Ohio
Valley. As the trough approaches the region, convection will become
a little more organized, moving across the mountains in the
afternoon and east of the Blue Ridge in the evening. Storms may
start out as multi-cellular then gel into lines as the day
progresses.

With dew points remaining in the 60s and PWAT values in the 1.50-
2.00 inch range, torrential downpours are likely and could lead to
localized flash flooding each day. Even though cloud cover will be
plentiful, temperatures will run warmer than normal in the foothills
and piedmont counties. This increased instabilities may help some
storms to become strong or severe. In both cases, flash flooding and
severe, none are expected to be widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Monday...

With the ridge in the Gulf and out of the way, an upper level trough
will track from the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic states Friday.
Also on Friday, a back door cold front is expected to approach the
area late in the day. The combination of all these features will
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. This front
wedges south Saturday but may not clear the area completely until
Saturday night. High pressure should bring a few days of dry weather
into early next week.

Warmer than normal temperatures and high humidities are expected
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

A scattered/broken deck of stratus remains in place over much of
the area, exceptions being areas west of a line from LWB to TNB,
where towering cumulus and cumulonimbus has started to form with
showers and storms. Those scattered storms will be ongoing for
the entire forecast area through this evening.

Ceilings are sitting in a low VFR/high end MVFR range, where
clouds exist. As the stratus breaks up and becomes more of a
scattered cumulus pattern, sky cover will become scattered and
tend a little more towards VFR. Once storms dissipate this
evening, ceilings will lift into VFR for most sites. LWB and BLF
will likely see ceilings lower to IFR or below and patchy fog
fill in, depending on where rain fell the previous afternoon.

Wind will be 5-10kt from the southwest, veering more west
overnight. Vsbys will be VFR through tonight, with the exception
of storms with a high rain rate. Tuesday morning before daybreak
will see some patchy fog fill in where rain fell, especially at
LWB and BLF.

Confidence in parameters...

Ceilings - Moderate
Vsbys - Moderately High
Wind - High
Weather Conditions - Moderately High on scattered storms, but
particular locations of storm formation tough to identify

Extended Aviation Discussion...

This daily threat of showers/storms mainly afternoon/evening
will persist through the end of the week. Best threat will be in
the mountains, but more coverage will be likely by Friday as a
backdoor front moves into the mid-Atlantic. So outside of late
night fog and storms with sub-VFR, expect VFR through the
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

Warm lows at night may lead to some records being approached/broken
for a couple of areas, while not close for others. Below is a list
of our climate stations, the record warmest lows, and the forecast lows.
Some of these records date back to over 100 years.

JUNE 7TH
SITE          WARMEST RECORD LOW/YEAR        FORECAST LOW
BLUEFIELD              73/1938                    64
BLACKSBURG             66/1941                    65
DANVILLE               73/1923                    70
LYNCHBURG              71/1952                    70
ROANOKE                71/2008                    70

JUNE 8TH
SITE          WARMEST RECORD LOW/YEAR        FORECAST LOW
BLUEFIELD              69/2008                    66
BLACKSBURG             65/1933                    66
DANVILLE               73/1925                    72
LYNCHBURG              71/1899                    70
ROANOKE                73/2008                    70

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VFJ
NEAR TERM...SK/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RR
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...WP
CLIMATE...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
327 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-080730-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
327 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
555 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

NCZ003-004-020-072245-
Stokes-Yadkin-Surry-
555 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SURRY...
STOKES AND EASTERN YADKIN COUNTIES...

At 554 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Enon to near Cooleemee. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pilot Mountain...
Walnut Cove...
East Bend...
Danbury...
Sandy Ridge...
King...
and Huntsville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If you are on or near Belews Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3639 8058 3654 8008 3654 8003 3626 8004
      3626 8045 3624 8045 3622 8043 3621 8045
      3614 8044 3612 8046 3611 8051 3608 8051
      3605 8050 3605 8058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 229DEG 20KT 3616 8050 3582 8052

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
608 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

VAZ019-020-WVZ507-072245-
Bath-Alleghany-Eastern Greenbrier-
608 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ALLEGHANY...
SOUTHWESTERN BATH COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND EASTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

At 607 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Neola. The
storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Neola...
Hot Springs...
Lake Moomaw...
Ingalls Field...
Carloover...
Bacova Junction...
and Natural Well.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If you are on or near Lake Moomaw, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3799 7976 3782 7999 3795 8022 3806 8010
      3806 7996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 154DEG 2KT 3796 8004

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
648 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

NCZ003>005-VAZ016-017-032-033-043-072345-
Stokes-Rockingham-Surry-Henry-Franklin-Patrick-Floyd-Carroll-
648 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SURRY...
STOKES...ROCKINGHAM...CENTRAL FLOYD...EASTERN CARROLL...WESTERN
HENRY...SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND PATRICK COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
MARTINSVILLE...

At 647 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Laurel Fork to Meadows. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Eden...
Reidsville...
Martinsville...
Wentworth...
Mayodan...
Madison...
and Pilot Mountain.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3626 8028 3626 8045 3625 8046 3686 8069
      3700 8011 3629 7953 3624 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 237DEG 17KT 3672 8053 3635 8019

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW WHITE SULPHUR SPR 37.79N 80.30W
06/07/2021                   GREENBRIER         WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER WAS WASTE DEEP ON MAIN STREET AND
            FLOWING ACROSS SPRING STREET AND AT LEAST
            ONE OTHER STREET IN TOWN ALSO CLOSED DUE TO
            RAPIDLY RISING WATER.

&&

SK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
730 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

VAZ019-023-080000-
Botetourt-Alleghany-
730 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALLEGHANY AND
NORTHWESTERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
CITY OF COVINGTON...

At 729 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Covington,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Covington...
Clifton Forge...
Jordan Mines...
Iron Gate...
Low Moor...
Glen Wilton...
and Longdale Furnace.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3789 7989 3788 7981 3788 7979 3782 7966
      3761 8002 3766 8003 3763 8009 3769 8018
      3794 7993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 233DEG 18KT 3771 8002

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
747 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

VAZ033-043-080015-
Henry-Franklin-
747 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF MARTINSVILLE...

At 746 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Horse Pasture,
or near Martinsville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Martinsville...
Bassett...
Sydnorsville...
Axton...
Spencer...
Leatherwood...
and Villa Heights.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3667 8007 3671 8009 3691 7983 3675 7967
      3654 7972 3654 7994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 225DEG 17KT 3666 7992

AS