Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
213 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Our area will remain between low pressure over the midwest
and high pressure off the southeast coast through midweek. A
front approaches toward the second half of the week. So for the
next several days expect more humid weather with a daily threat
of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

Remaining humid with smattering of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening...

A blanket of stratus over most of the CWA has served to delay
storm initiation by limiting insolation and preventing
destabilization of the atmosphere. First couple of storms have
initiated in the west where the area from Tazewell to Lewisburg
has had clearer skies for the past few hours. Expecting further
storm initiation to be concentrated along and west of the Blue
Ridge, but scattered storms are possible everywhere. Any storms
further east will likely hold off until late afternoon because
of the aforementioned cloud cover.

There won't be widespread rain coverage, but with a PWAT of 1.4"
on the BCB sounding this morning, and model soundings indicating
most of the area having PWATs above 1.5", there is plenty of
moisture to tap into. Storm motion will be sluggish, so
locations that do experience a storm or shower could pick up a
quick half an inch to one inch within an hour. Storms will
dissipate into the evening.

Tuesday will be more of the same, with weak shortwaves swinging
around an upper low positioned in the Midwest. PoPs are a little
higher than today, because expecting less cloud cover than we
are experiencing today. Temperatures and humidity will be above
normal again tomorrow, with highs out east in the upper 80s,
highs in the west in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 103 PM EDT Monday...

The region will remain sandwiched between an upper level ridge over
the southeastern states and an upper low drifting over the upper
Mississippi Valley Wednesday. The combination of weak short waves
and diurnal heating will keep the threat for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Most of these storms will fade during the
mid to late evening. We will start to see a small change in the
weather on Thursday as the low opens into a trough over the Ohio
Valley. As the trough approaches the region, convection will become
a little more organized, moving across the mountains in the
afternoon and east of the Blue Ridge in the evening. Storms may
start out as multi-cellular then gel into lines as the day
progresses.

With dew points remaining in the 60s and PWAT values in the 1.50-
2.00 inch range, torrential downpours are likely and could lead to
localized flash flooding each day. Even though cloud cover will be
plentiful, temperatures will run warmer than normal in the foothills
and piedmont counties. This increased instabilities may help some
storms to become strong or severe. In both cases, flash flooding and
severe, none are expected to be widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Monday...

With the ridge in the Gulf and out of the way, an upper level trough
will track from the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic states Friday.
Also on Friday, a back door cold front is expected to approach the
area late in the day. The combination of all these features will
bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. This front
wedges south Saturday but may not clear the area completely until
Saturday night. High pressure should bring a few days of dry weather
into early next week.

Warmer than normal temperatures and high humidities are expected
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

A scattered/broken deck of stratus remains in place over much of
the area, exceptions being areas west of a line from LWB to TNB,
where towering cumulus and cumulonimbus has started to form with
showers and storms. Those scattered storms will be ongoing for
the entire forecast area through this evening.

Ceilings are sitting in a low VFR/high end MVFR range, where
clouds exist. As the stratus breaks up and becomes more of a
scattered cumulus pattern, sky cover will become scattered and
tend a little more towards VFR. Once storms dissipate this
evening, ceilings will lift into VFR for most sites. LWB and BLF
will likely see ceilings lower to IFR or below and patchy fog
fill in, depending on where rain fell the previous afternoon.

Wind will be 5-10kt from the southwest, veering more west
overnight. Vsbys will be VFR through tonight, with the exception
of storms with a high rain rate. Tuesday morning before daybreak
will see some patchy fog fill in where rain fell, especially at
LWB and BLF.

Confidence in parameters...

Ceilings - Moderate
Vsbys - Moderately High
Wind - High
Weather Conditions - Moderately High on scattered storms, but
particular locations of storm formation tough to identify

Extended Aviation Discussion...

This daily threat of showers/storms mainly afternoon/evening
will persist through the end of the week. Best threat will be in
the mountains, but more coverage will be likely by Friday as a
backdoor front moves into the mid-Atlantic. So outside of late
night fog and storms with sub-VFR, expect VFR through the
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

Warm lows at night may lead to some records being approached/broken
for a couple of areas, while not close for others. Below is a list
of our climate stations, the record warmest lows, and the forecast lows.
Some of these records date back to over 100 years.

JUNE 7TH
SITE          WARMEST RECORD LOW/YEAR        FORECAST LOW
BLUEFIELD              73/1938                    64
BLACKSBURG             66/1941                    65
DANVILLE               73/1923                    70
LYNCHBURG              71/1952                    70
ROANOKE                71/2008                    70

JUNE 8TH
SITE          WARMEST RECORD LOW/YEAR        FORECAST LOW
BLUEFIELD              69/2008                    66
BLACKSBURG             65/1933                    66
DANVILLE               73/1925                    72
LYNCHBURG              71/1899                    70
ROANOKE                73/2008                    70

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VFJ
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...RR
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...WP
CLIMATE...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
327 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-080730-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
327 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

NCZ019-072045-
Wilkes-
350 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTY...

At 346 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Lake Hickory,
or 7 miles north of Hickory, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Wilkesboro...
Wilkesboro...
Boomer...
Windy Gap...
Cricket...
Wilkesboro Reservoir...
and Buck.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3602 8135 3605 8139 3626 8129 3611 8093
      3606 8098 3604 8105 3603 8106 3604 8114
      3603 8117 3604 8120 3603 8127 3600 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 206DEG 19KT 3584 8137

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
428 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

VAZ011-WVZ042>044-072100-
Giles-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
428 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GILES...SOUTHEASTERN SUMMERS...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 426 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Narrows, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pearisburg...
Narrows...
Pembroke...
Peterstown...
Rich Creek...
Glen Lyn...
and Red Sulphur Spring.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If you are on or near Bluestone Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3744 8044 3742 8048 3741 8047 3719 8081
      3730 8097 3763 8076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 224DEG 13KT 3731 8083

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
442 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

VAZ007-009-072145-
Tazewell-Smyth-
442 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN SMYTH AND TAZEWELL
COUNTIES...

At 441 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located near Abingdon,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richlands...
Tazewell...
Saltville...
Chilhowie...
Cedar Bluff...
Raven...
and Amonate.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3715 8190 3716 8187 3717 8187 3720 8176
      3724 8174 3724 8172 3720 8168 3720 8160
      3714 8144 3664 8159 3663 8162 3679 8170
      3693 8183 3695 8182 3696 8178 3705 8182
      3711 8189 3714 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 206DEG 23KT 3677 8196

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

NCZ003-019-020-072200-
Yadkin-Surry-Wilkes-
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SURRY... EASTERN
WILKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES...

At 458 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Harmony, or 14
miles north of Statesville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkin...
Yadkinville...
Jonesville...
Boonville...
East Bend...
Nebo...
and Buck Shoals.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3606 8096 3634 8086 3627 8045 3624 8045
      3623 8043 3622 8043 3621 8045 3617 8044
      3614 8044 3612 8046 3612 8049 3611 8051
      3608 8051 3605 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 215DEG 21KT 3599 8086

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

NCZ019-020-072145-
Yadkin-Wilkes-
500 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
EAST CENTRAL WILKES AND YADKIN COUNTIES...

At 459 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Harmony, or 14
miles north of Statesville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Yadkinville...
Jonesville...
Boonville...
East Bend...
Nebo...
Buck Shoals...
and Huntsville.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3606 8095 3626 8087 3624 8087 3625 8081
      3625 8080 3627 8078 3627 8068 3625 8067
      3625 8065 3627 8064 3627 8054 3626 8053
      3626 8047 3622 8043 3621 8045 3614 8044
      3612 8046 3611 8051 3605 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 215DEG 21KT 3599 8085

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
521 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

VAZ019-WVZ507-072200-
Alleghany-Eastern Greenbrier-
521 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTY
IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

At 521 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Alleghany,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alleghany...
White Sulphur Springs...
Neola...
Natural Well...
Alvon...
and Callaghan.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3804 8021 3804 8019 3797 8004 3795 8005
      3795 8004 3794 8003 3795 8001 3791 7992
      3769 8016 3781 8042 3805 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 208DEG 7KT 3777 8026

AS