Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
238 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions prevail with daily afternoon
thunderstorm chances through Tuesday. Remnants of Ida arrive
Tuesday night into Wednesday with heavy rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

A weak upper level disturbance has created a bunch of showers
and thunderstorms early this afternoon over northeastern
Kentucky and southeastern Ohio. With plenty of instability over
the area this afternoon, have increased chances of precipitation
in most areas, especially near this disturbance.

Models vary over how long showers and thunderstorms will last
tonight and if addition precipitation will form late tonight.
Due to differences between the models, have kept POPs fairly
generic, with better chances in the north.

Moisture remains over the area on Monday as a cold front
approaches from the north. With plenty on instability over the
area and another weak upper level disturbance, expect numerous
showers and thunderstorms with the best chances across the north
closer to the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

For Monday night, expect rain chances to spread across the area
with likely shower activity for the northern half of the CWA.
This will be a result from a frontal boundary draped west to
east just north of the area. This boundary should stay north as
Tropical Cyclone Ida approaches from our south which will
likely keep the boundary stationary to the north as Ida pushes
a warm frontal north through the CWA. If for some reason the
frontal boundary moves south as Ida slides through this
northerly flow perpendicular to the frontal boundary with a
modest low level jet of at least 40KT, plus a deepening upper
level trough and isentropic ascent will set up a Maddox Frontal
event which will promote even more of a flooding potential with
flash flooding. This will have to be carefully looked at for a
decision on a widespread flood watch issuance in the next shift
or two.

Most models/ensembles keep the eye tracking just south of our
center which will keep the higher rainfall amounts in the
northern parts of the area while they get hit the hardest in
the northeastern sector and wrap around flow of Ida where the
heavier rain usually occurs. Steady light rain should become
apparent by Tuesday morning/afternoon and continue into
Wednesday The main threat will be flooding with maybe some gusty
strong wind within any convection that may occur. This possible
wind threat from convection could potentially take down some
trees, especially with the help of heavier rain/showers. Also,
we cannot rule out a weak tornado within any convection
particularly in the northeastern sector of Ida or within any
convection associated in heavy rain banding.

By midday Tuesday, Ida will have moved in and rainfall rates will
have moved up in intensity dropping 3 to 4 inches (total) going
into Wednesday with localized higher amounts of 4-5+.
Continuous light to moderate rainfall or heavier showers in
convection will likely fall and stick around until Wednesday
evening at which point Ida will make a move and exit to the
east-northeast. Temperatures will take a tumble and fall well
below seasonable for a nice cool down associated with Ida's
visit.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, remnants of Ida will
be traversing toward the east leaving very little in the way of
any chances for rain the rest of Thursday. Any activity that may
come to fruition would be mainly confined to the mountains, if
any. Temperatures will continue to fall well below seasonable
into the weekend with a high pressure system from the midwest
building in and hopefully shielding the area from any unsettled
weather into the weekend. Temperatures will try and rebound
from Ida rising to right around seasonable by Saturday. As
heights flatten and high pressure weakens some slight chances
for a diurnal shower or storm will be possible for maybe
Saturday afternoon and more likely on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

VFR cumulus can be expected this afternoon, with scattered showers
and thunderstorms causing brief IFR restrictions.

While showers and thunderstorms will become less numerous
this evening, a few could continue overnight and into Monday
morning. Fog can be expected tonight in areas that receive
rainfall today.

A cumulus deck can be expected again Monday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR valley fog possible each morning through Tuesday. Brief IFR
possible in thunderstorms each afternoon/evening through
Tuesday, and at any time Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
302 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

WVZ523>526-300715-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
302 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will produce
locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized high water
issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will increase Tuesday
and Wednesday as the remnants of Ida move into region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-515>522-300715-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-
302 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will increase Tuesday
and Wednesday as the remnants of Ida move into region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-085>087-WVZ005>009-013>018-024>030-039-300715-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Jackson OH-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Upshur-
302 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern
West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Afternoon heat indices are expected to rise into the mid 90s to near
100 degrees today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will increase Tuesday
and Wednesday as the remnants of Ida move into region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-WVZ010-011-019-020-031-032-040-300715-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Vinton-Pleasants-Tyler-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Harrison-Taylor-Barbour-
302 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Afternoon heat indices are expected to rise into the mid 90s to near
100 degrees today.

Slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will produce
locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized high water
issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will increase Tuesday
and Wednesday as the remnants of Ida move into region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1159 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

OHZ066-291645-
Perry OH-
1159 AM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Perry
County through 1245 PM EDT...

At 1157 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Lexington, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Lexington, Perry State Forest, Crooksville and Junction City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 8208 3973 8208 3972 8204 3971 8202
      3966 8203 3962 8228 3972 8233 3981 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 253DEG 16KT 3969 8227

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1222 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

OHZ084-291700-
Vinton OH-
1222 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Vinton
County through 100 PM EDT...

At 1222 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of Chillicothe, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eagle Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8275 3936 8264 3937 8263 3937 8252
      3940 8251 3939 8240 3922 8275 3923 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1622Z 226DEG 16KT 3932 8274

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
122 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

KYZ105-291800-
Lawrence KY-
122 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Lawrence County through 200 PM EDT...

At 122 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Galen, or near Paintsville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Charley, Clifford and Gallup.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 8268 3799 8251 3796 8255 3795 8258
      3793 8258 3792 8260 3791 8260 3788 8263
      3790 8270 3798 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 226DEG 16KT 3791 8280

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
254 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

KYZ101-291945-
Greenup KY-
254 PM EDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Greenup
County through 345 PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Letitia, or 9 miles southwest of Portsmouth, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Portsmouth, Letitia, South Shore, Grays Branch and South Portsmouth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 8305 3866 8305 3868 8303 3870 8304
      3873 8303 3872 8298 3876 8290 3875 8288
      3873 8287 3869 8288 3866 8286 3864 8286
      3862 8307 3863 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 247DEG 11KT 3867 8309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

11