Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Charleston, WV

884 
WGUS41 KRLX 282154
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
454 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

OHC167-WVC013-017-021-041-073-085-095-010400-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210301T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-Calhoun WV-Doddridge WV-Gilmer WV-Lewis WV-Pleasants
WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
454 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  East Central Washington County in southeastern Ohio...
  Calhoun County in north central West Virginia...
  Gilmer County in north central West Virginia...
  Doddridge County in northern West Virginia...
  Northwestern Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Tyler County in northern West Virginia...
  Pleasants County in northwestern West Virginia...
  Ritchie County in northwestern West Virginia...

* Until 1100 PM EST Sunday.

* At 454 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain moving into the 
  warned area. Flooding is ongoing. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain 
  have fallen with another inch possible this afternoon and evening.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Weston, Harrisville, St. Marys, Glenville, Middlebourne, 
  Grantsville, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Belmont, West Union, North 
  Bend State Park, Cedar Creek State Park, Arnoldsburg, Jackson 
  Mill, Newport, Matamoras, Ellenboro, Cairo, Sand Fork and Pullman.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Strong rises have been seen on Middle Island Creek, and 
the it is expected to go into flood at Middlebourne shortly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8140 3957 8110 3960 8085 3948 8072
      3942 8054 3929 8060 3920 8053 3917 8059
      3915 8047 3906 8048 3888 8059 3888 8070
      3863 8112 3864 8116 3891 8128 3903 8116
      3904 8125 3915 8133 3927 8125 3927 8124

$$

26

741 
WGUS81 KRLX 010229
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
929 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

OHC167-WVC013-017-021-041-073-085-095-010400-
/O.CON.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210301T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-Calhoun WV-Doddridge WV-Gilmer WV-Lewis WV-Pleasants
WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
929 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON, CALHOUN, GILMER, DODDRIDGE, NORTHWESTERN 
LEWIS, TYLER, PLEASANTS AND RITCHIE COUNTIES...

At 929 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain moving into the 
warned area. Flooding is ongoing. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain 
have fallen with another inch possible tonight.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Weston, Harrisville, St. Marys, Glenville, Middlebourne, 
  Grantsville, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Belmont, West Union, North 
  Bend State Park, Cedar Creek State Park, Arnoldsburg, Jackson 
  Mill, Newport, Matamoras, Ellenboro, Cairo, Sand Fork and Pullman.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8140 3957 8110 3960 8085 3948 8072
      3942 8054 3929 8060 3920 8053 3917 8059
      3915 8047 3906 8048 3888 8059 3888 8070
      3863 8112 3864 8116 3891 8128 3903 8116
      3904 8125 3915 8133 3927 8125 3927 8124

$$

26

439 
WGUS41 KRLX 010312
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1012 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

OHC167-WVC013-017-021-041-073-085-095-010900-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210301T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-Calhoun WV-Doddridge WV-Gilmer WV-Lewis WV-Pleasants
WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
1012 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  East Central Washington County in southeastern Ohio...
  Calhoun County in north central West Virginia...
  Gilmer County in north central West Virginia...
  Doddridge County in northern West Virginia...
  Northwestern Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Tyler County in northern West Virginia...
  Pleasants County in northwestern West Virginia...
  Ritchie County in northwestern West Virginia...

* Until 400 AM EST.

* At 1012 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated more rain moving into the 
  warned area. Flooding is ongoing. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain 
  have fallen with another inch possible tonight.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Weston, Harrisville, St. Marys, Glenville, Middlebourne, 
  Grantsville, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Belmont, West Union, North 
  Bend State Park, Cedar Creek State Park, Arnoldsburg, Jackson 
  Mill, Newport, Matamoras, Ellenboro, Cairo, Sand Fork and Pullman.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8140 3957 8110 3960 8085 3948 8072
      3942 8054 3929 8060 3920 8053 3917 8059
      3915 8047 3906 8048 3888 8059 3888 8070
      3863 8112 3864 8116 3891 8128 3903 8116
      3904 8125 3915 8133 3927 8125 3927 8124

$$

26

403 
WGUS41 KRLX 010832
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
332 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

OHC167-WVC013-017-021-041-073-085-095-011200-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-Calhoun WV-Doddridge WV-Gilmer WV-Lewis WV-Pleasants
WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
332 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  East Central Washington County in southeastern Ohio...
  Calhoun County in north central West Virginia...
  Gilmer County in north central West Virginia...
  Doddridge County in northern West Virginia...
  Northwestern Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Tyler County in northern West Virginia...
  Pleasants County in northwestern West Virginia...
  Ritchie County in northwestern West Virginia...

* Until 700 AM EST.

* At 332 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Flooding is 
  ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 
  1.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Weston, Harrisville, St. Marys, Glenville, Middlebourne, 
  Grantsville, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Belmont, West Union, North 
  Bend State Park, Cedar Creek State Park, Arnoldsburg, Jackson 
  Mill, Newport, Matamoras, Ellenboro, Cairo, Sand Fork and Pullman.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8140 3957 8110 3960 8085 3948 8072
      3942 8054 3929 8060 3920 8053 3917 8059
      3915 8047 3906 8048 3888 8059 3888 8070
      3863 8112 3864 8116 3891 8128 3903 8116
      3904 8125 3915 8133 3927 8125 3927 8124

$$

JP

123 
WGUS41 KRLX 011136
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
636 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

OHC167-WVC013-017-021-041-073-085-095-011400-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210301T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-Calhoun WV-Doddridge WV-Gilmer WV-Lewis WV-Pleasants
WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
636 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  East Central Washington County in southeastern Ohio...
  Calhoun County in north central West Virginia...
  Gilmer County in north central West Virginia...
  Doddridge County in northern West Virginia...
  Northwestern Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Tyler County in northern West Virginia...
  Pleasants County in northwestern West Virginia...
  Ritchie County in northwestern West Virginia...

* Until 900 AM EST.

* At 636 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain indicated heavy 
  rain had occurred in the warned area and flooding is already 
  occurring. While rain has tapered off to light showers with 
  minimal additional accumulations expected, high water impacts will 
  linger into the morning with several streams and creeks out of 
  their banks.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Weston, Harrisville, St. Marys, Glenville, Middlebourne, 
  Grantsville, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Belmont, West Union, North 
  Bend State Park, Cedar Creek State Park, Arnoldsburg, Jackson 
  Mill, Newport, Matamoras, Ellenboro, Cairo, Sand Fork and Pullman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8140 3957 8110 3960 8085 3948 8072
      3942 8054 3929 8060 3920 8053 3917 8059
      3915 8047 3906 8048 3888 8059 3888 8070
      3863 8112 3864 8116 3891 8128 3903 8116
      3904 8125 3915 8133 3927 8125 3927 8124

$$

JP

268 
WGUS41 KRLX 011334
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
834 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

OHC167-WVC013-017-021-041-073-085-095-011700-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210301T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-Calhoun WV-Doddridge WV-Gilmer WV-Lewis WV-Pleasants
WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
834 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  East Central Washington County in southeastern Ohio...
  Calhoun County in north central West Virginia...
  Gilmer County in north central West Virginia...
  Doddridge County in northern West Virginia...
  Northwestern Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Tyler County in northern West Virginia...
  Pleasants County in northwestern West Virginia...
  Ritchie County in northwestern West Virginia...

* Until noon EST.

* At 834 AM EST, Flooding continues across much of the warned area 
  with creeks, streams, and even main stem rivers experiencing 
  significant rises. Many roadways remain closed due to high water. 
  The high water levels will persist through the morning.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Weston, Harrisville, St. Marys, Glenville, Middlebourne, 
  Grantsville, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Belmont, West Union, North 
  Bend State Park, Cedar Creek State Park, Arnoldsburg, Jackson 
  Mill, Newport, Matamoras, Ellenboro, Cairo, Sand Fork and Pullman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8140 3957 8110 3960 8085 3948 8072
      3942 8054 3929 8060 3920 8053 3917 8059
      3915 8047 3906 8048 3888 8059 3888 8070
      3863 8112 3864 8116 3891 8128 3903 8116
      3904 8125 3915 8133 3927 8125 3927 8124

$$

HART

560 
WGUS41 KRLX 011653 RRC
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1153 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

OHC167-WVC013-017-021-041-073-085-095-020300-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210302T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-Calhoun WV-Doddridge WV-Gilmer WV-Lewis WV-Pleasants
WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
1153 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  East Central Washington County in southeastern Ohio...
  Calhoun County in north central West Virginia...
  Gilmer County in north central West Virginia...
  Doddridge County in northern West Virginia...
  Northwestern Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Tyler County in northern West Virginia...
  Pleasants County in northwestern West Virginia...
  Ritchie County in northwestern West Virginia...

* Until 1000 PM EST Monday.

* At 1153 AM EST, Flooding, significant in many areas, persists 
  across the area. Many roads remain closed as a result, especially 
  secondary roads. Despite rain having ended, flood waters will 
  remain high for much of the remainder of the day. In addition, 
  flood waters along many creeks, streams, and rivers remain high. 
  Do not cross flooded roadways.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Weston, Harrisville, St. Marys, Glenville, Middlebourne, 
  Grantsville, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Belmont, West Union, North 
  Bend State Park, Cedar Creek State Park, Arnoldsburg, Jackson 
  Mill, Newport, Matamoras, Ellenboro, Cairo, Sand Fork and Pullman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8140 3957 8110 3960 8085 3948 8072
      3942 8054 3929 8060 3920 8053 3917 8059
      3915 8047 3906 8048 3888 8059 3888 8070
      3863 8112 3864 8116 3891 8128 3903 8116
      3904 8125 3915 8133 3927 8125 3927 8124

$$

HART

217 
WGUS81 KRLX 011834 RRC
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
134 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

OHC167-WVC013-017-021-041-073-085-095-020300-
/O.CON.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210302T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-Calhoun WV-Doddridge WV-Gilmer WV-Lewis WV-Pleasants
WV-Ritchie WV-Tyler WV-
134 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON, CALHOUN, GILMER, DODDRIDGE, NORTHWESTERN 
LEWIS, TYLER, PLEASANTS AND RITCHIE COUNTIES...

At 134 PM EST, Flooding, significant in many areas, persists across 
the area. Many roads remain closed as a result, especially secondary 
roads. Despite rain having ended, flood waters will remain high for 
much of the remainder of the day. In addition, flood waters along 
many creeks, streams, and rivers remain high. Do not cross flooded 
roadways.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Weston, Harrisville, St. Marys, Glenville, Middlebourne, 
  Grantsville, Sistersville, Pennsboro, Belmont, West Union, North 
  Bend State Park, Cedar Creek State Park, Arnoldsburg, Jackson 
  Mill, Newport, Matamoras, Ellenboro, Cairo, Sand Fork and Pullman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 8140 3957 8110 3960 8085 3948 8072
      3942 8054 3929 8060 3920 8053 3917 8059
      3915 8047 3906 8048 3888 8059 3888 8070
      3863 8112 3864 8116 3891 8128 3903 8116
      3904 8125 3915 8133 3927 8125 3927 8124

$$

HART

653 
WGUS81 KRLX 020207
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
907 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

OHC167-WVC013-017-021-041-085-020217-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210302T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington OH-Calhoun WV-Doddridge WV-Gilmer WV-Lewis WV-Ritchie WV-
907 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON, CALHOUN, 
GILMER, DODDRIDGE, NORTHWESTERN LEWIS AND RITCHIE COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat, although lingering 
backwater issues remain possible. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3944 8112 3952 8100 3952 8088 3948 8088
      3946 8096 3942 8101 3942 8105 3939 8109
      3937 8112 3936 8115 3938 8119 3941 8119

$$

WVC073-095-020300-
/O.CON.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210302T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pleasants WV-Tyler WV-
907 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
WEST CENTRAL TYLER AND NORTHEASTERN PLEASANTS COUNTIES...

At 907 PM EST, Middle Island Creek from just downstream of 
Middlebourne to the Ohio remains elevated, and Little remains above 
flood stage. Backwater issues on feeder streams and creeks linger as 
well.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  St. Marys, Middlebourne, Arvilla and Point Lookout.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 8112 3952 8100 3952 8088 3948 8088
      3946 8096 3942 8101 3942 8105 3939 8109
      3937 8112 3936 8115 3938 8119 3941 8119

$$

26

078 
WGUS41 KRLX 020223 RRA
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
923 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC073-095-021100-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210302T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pleasants WV-Tyler WV-
923 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  West Central Tyler County in northern West Virginia...
  Northeastern Pleasants County in northwestern West Virginia...

* Until 600 AM EST Tuesday.

* At 923 PM EST, Middle Island Creek from just downstream of 
  Middlebourne to the Ohio remains elevated, and Little remains 
  above flood stage. Backwater issues on feeder streams and creeks 
  linger as well.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  St. Marys, Middlebourne, Arvilla and Point Lookout.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 8112 3952 8100 3952 8088 3948 8088
      3946 8096 3942 8101 3942 8105 3939 8109
      3937 8112 3936 8115 3938 8119 3941 8119

$$

26

109 
WGUS81 KRLX 020845
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
345 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

WVC073-095-020855-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FA.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210302T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pleasants WV-Tyler WV-
345 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL TYLER AND 
NORTHEASTERN PLEASANTS COUNTIES...

Middle Island Creek will continue to recede to below action stage 
by  daybreak. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3944 8112 3952 8100 3952 8088 3948 8088
      3946 8096 3942 8101 3942 8105 3939 8109
      3937 8112 3936 8115 3938 8119 3941 8119

$$

JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
931 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of moderate to heavy rain today and tonight. Cold front
exiting Monday morning brings drier conditions for the start of
the work week. Low pressure passes south Wednesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Sunday...

Minor adjustments to PoPs were made this morning, but the
general trend remains of brief lulls in rain plausible during
the day before the more prolonged rainfall arrives tonight. A
few areal flood warnings have gone into effect today as rainfall
totals top out between 1.5-2 inches in portions of our western
areas. Multiple reports across the Kanawha Valley have been
relayed to the office this morning of flooded roadways, so
continue to heed caution if going out and about today.

As of 330 AM Sunday...

Made some updates to QPF based on latest WPC guidance to
maintain a more consistent forecast picture with the outlooked
moderate risk of excessive rainfall. This reflects more
potential overlap between multiple rain swaths this morning and
this afternoon, mainly along and north the I-64/79 corridor.
Rapid update guidance dprog/dt trends continue to suggest the
axis of heaviest rainfall totals could shift even father north.
Additional changes are possible this morning if these trends
continue.

As of 130 AM Sunday...

Moderate to heavy rainfall will work its way north through the mid
to late morning hours supported by low level convergence at the nose
of a strengthening H850 jet down low and the fringes of the right
entrance region of a 150KT H300 jet streak across the Great Lakes.
Modest elevated instability of 200-400j/kg this morning will
likely yield at least some embedded thunder. It is possible for
a few storms to become surface based along the southern fringe
of the precipitation shield this afternoon where surface
temperatures could reach the mid 60s. Given the presence of
large looping low level hodographs, MLCAPE values of 300-400j/kg
and a near saturated column will have a non-zero risk of a
brief spin-up along this effective boundary, should any storms
be able to become attached to it. Based on current guidance, the
most likely area for this to occur is NE KY eastward into the
Metro Valley.

As favorable jet dynamics begin to shift northeast this afternoon
into this evening and resultant H850 response weakens slightly,
effective warm front will stall in the vicinity of the Ohio River
with some tempering of rainfall rates expected. Frontolysis of this
feature is expected as support is lost, however lingering juicy low
level moisture will eventually be squeezed out by a cold front
approaching during the late overnight.

Another jet streak is expected to move into a favorable position for
forcing for ascent and resultant low level response by late this
evening yielding a second effective warm front, roughly bisecting
the region from west to east. This is expected to provide a renewed
focus for banded moderate to heavy precipitation slowly working
south as the jet streak shifts southeast. The big forecast question
is, how much of this area of rainfall will overlap the higher
precipitation totals from earlier in the day that will significantly
compromise moisture holding ability of the soil.

Finally, the aforementioned cold front sweeps through during the late
overnight into Monday morning yielding yet another area of moderate
precipitation. This should be a bit more progressive than the
previous two areas, however, given potential antecedent soil
moisture will likely cause some additional issues over the Lowlands.
In the mountains where upslope is maximized with this feature, could
see some more significant issues on the tail end of the event,
although this again will largely be contingent on what falls today.

Event total rainfall (inclusive of what fell yesterday) forecast has
not changed much, generally 1 to 1.5 inches across SE OH, 2 to 3
inches across central WV and 2.5 to 4 inches across SW VA and S WV.
These values should be reasonably representative of basin averages,
with locally higher values in the vicinity of the aforementioned warm
fronts and lesser values away from these features. Local impacts to
smaller creeks, streams as well as any high water trouble spots will
be highly contingent on the ultimate position of these more
significant swaths of heavy rainfall, while larger water bodies
should see a little more predictable response.

In addition to high water impacts, given the time of year with
weakened ground cover and a winter long freeze/thaw cycle, mud
slides as well as rock slides will be possible in any steeper
terrain with heavier rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Cold front and upper level short wave trough exit first thing
Monday morning, taking the moderate to heavy rain with it, with
little additional accumulation. Stratus/stratocu beneath the
frontal inversion will mix out from northwest to southeast
Monday midday and afternoon, as much drier air arrives. Even
drier air arrives behind a reinforcing moisture starved cold
front that crosses Monday night.

High pressure crosses Tuesday. After providing a cold start amid
clear, nearly calm conditions by dawn Tuesday, the strengthening
early March sun will take advantage of a lowering subsidence
inversion to take temperatures back up into the 40s for
afternoon highs.

Clouds increase Tuesday night, ahead of a southern stream
closed low that tracks south of the area Wednesday morning.
Models are still diverged on how far north precipitation sneaks
Wednesday morning, before exiting to the east by afternoon.

The column starts out cold enough for snow overnight Tuesday
night, but with surface temperatures climbing above freezing
Wednesday morning, any snow will become a wet, non-accumulating
snow and, ultimately, rain, from south to north, before ending
from west to east by Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures close to central guidance, except a bit lower in
the valleys Tuesday morning, and otherwise a little below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Saturday...

A northern stream short wave trough drops a reinforcing
moisture starved cold front through the area Wednesday night,
as the short wave drops into a long wave trough position along
the east coast. Arctic high pressure then builds toward the
area, but the arctic air mass will have time to be modified
under the strengthening early March sun, as it takes until at
least Sunday for the high to settle in over the area. With
another southern stream low opening up as it passes south of the
area Friday night into Saturday, shunted south by the
aforementioned northern stream troughing, a period of dry, quiet
weather appears to be on tap for the latter portion of the
upcoming week.

Central guidance temperatures accepted, which reflect near
normal temperatures to start out, before dropping back below
normal as the high of arctic origin builds toward the area.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 620 AM Sunday...

Moderate to heavy rainfall lifts north through late morning,
weakens slightly this afternoon and migrates back to the south late
this afternoon into the overnight. Highly variable conditions are
expected at the terminals with this activity with embedded heavier
cells reducing visibility to near 1 mile at times. In addition, any
brief lulls in precipitation likely fill in with fog or low stratus,
especially through the mid morning hours - CRW and HTS will be the
most vulnerable to this sitting on the edge of the heavier
precipitation this morning. BKW will be the major exception with
only light showers this morning and a mainly dry afternoon with any
additional heavier rain holding off until this evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings likely waver significantly during
periods of moderate to heavy rain. Terminals near the edge of
precipitation may be in and out of fog.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    M    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions linger early Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>008-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/MEK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
512 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>020-024>034-039-
040-515>526-011015-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-
Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-
Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
512 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ075-076-083>085-WVZ009>011-011015-
Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-
512 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio
and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A low pressure system will bring rounds of rain today and tonight.
This will lead to strong rises of area creeks and rivers, which may
result in high water issues. Poor drainage flooding and hydroplaning
are also possible. This area is in a marginal to slight risk for
excessive rainfall today through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-011015-
Perry-Morgan-
512 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Perry and Morgan counties in
interior southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

A low pressure system will bring rounds of rain today and tonight.
This could lead to rises of area creeks and rivers, which may result
in high water issues. Poor drainage flooding and hydroplaning are
also possible. This area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
today through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

JP / TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     FLOOD            1 WNW ELKVIEW           38.44N 81.49W
02/28/2021                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING ALONG ELK RIVER ROAD SOUTH.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
934 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     FLOOD            JEFFERSON               38.37N 81.77W
02/28/2021                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            MACCORKLE AVE FLOODED IN JEFFERSON.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
935 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 AM     FLOOD            1 SW CROSS LANES        38.42N 81.79W
02/28/2021                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            BIG TYLER ROAD AND SUN VALLEY DR FLOODED IN
            CROSS LANES.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
938 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     FLOOD            TORNADO                 38.34N 81.84W
02/28/2021                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF FLOODING IN THE TORNADO AREA.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1059 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     FLOOD            WEST HAMLIN             38.29N 82.19W
02/28/2021                   LINCOLN            WV   PUBLIC

            PICTURES SUBMITTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF ROUTE
            10 FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE JUST OUTSIDE OF
            HAMLIN.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1102 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     FLOOD            1 SSE HUNTINGTON        38.40N 82.43W
02/28/2021                   CABELL             WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIDEO OF FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE ROADWAYS IN
            ENSLOW PARK AREA OF HUNTINGTON.

&&

HART