Areal Flood Warning 10, NWS Charleston, WV

455 
WGUS81 KRLX 010154
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
854 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

WVC001-007-033-041-091-097-010300-
/O.CON.KRLX.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210301T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barbour WV-Braxton WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
854 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
BRAXTON, BARBOUR, UPSHUR, HARRISON, LEWIS AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 854 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated persistent rain across the 
warned area. Flooding is occurring or expected to begin in the 
warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen with an 
additional one half to one and a half inches possible. Flooding 
impacts will likely increase through the evening and overnight.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarksburg, Buckhannon, Grafton, Weston, Philippi, Sutton, Audra 
  State Park, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Belington, Stonewood, Nutter 
  Fort, Salem, Gassaway, Lumberport, Anmoore, Stonewall Jackson, 
  Jackson Mill, Rock Cave and West Milford.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 8064 3904 8051 3916 8060 3921 8053
      3929 8060 3947 8049 3939 8020 3944 7989
      3924 7981 3911 7982 3897 7990 3894 8009
      3876 8012 3868 8031 3874 8046 3853 8065
      3856 8078 3851 8088 3867 8103 3890 8061

$$

26

505 
WGUS41 KRLX 010227
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
927 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

WVC001-007-033-041-091-097-010700-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210301T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barbour WV-Braxton WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
927 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Braxton County in north central West Virginia...
  Barbour County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Upshur County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Harrison County in northern West Virginia...
  Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Taylor County in northern West Virginia...

* Until 200 AM EST.

* At 927 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated persistent rain across the 
  warned area. Flooding is occurring or expected to begin in the 
  warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen with an 
  additional one half to one and a half inches possible. Flooding 
  impacts will likely increase through the evening and overnight.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarksburg, Buckhannon, Grafton, Weston, Philippi, Sutton, Audra 
  State Park, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Belington, Stonewood, Nutter 
  Fort, Salem, Gassaway, Lumberport, Anmoore, Stonewall Jackson, 
  Jackson Mill, Rock Cave and West Milford.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 8064 3904 8051 3916 8060 3921 8053
      3929 8060 3947 8049 3939 8020 3944 7989
      3924 7981 3911 7982 3897 7990 3894 8009
      3876 8012 3868 8031 3874 8046 3853 8065
      3856 8078 3851 8088 3867 8103 3890 8061

$$

26

557 
WGUS41 KRLX 010625
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
125 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC001-007-033-041-091-097-010900-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210301T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barbour WV-Braxton WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
125 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Braxton County in north central West Virginia...
  Barbour County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Upshur County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Harrison County in northern West Virginia...
  Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Taylor County in northern West Virginia...

* Until 400 AM EST.

* At 125 AM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in 
  the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarksburg, Buckhannon, Grafton, Weston, Philippi, Sutton, Audra 
  State Park, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Belington, Stonewood, Nutter 
  Fort, Salem, Gassaway, Lumberport, Anmoore, Stonewall Jackson, 
  Jackson Mill, Rock Cave and West Milford.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 8064 3904 8051 3916 8060 3921 8053
      3929 8060 3947 8049 3939 8020 3944 7989
      3924 7981 3911 7982 3897 7990 3894 8009
      3876 8012 3868 8031 3874 8046 3853 8065
      3856 8078 3851 8088 3867 8103 3890 8061

$$

JP

501 
WGUS41 KRLX 010831
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
331 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC001-007-033-041-091-097-011400-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210301T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barbour WV-Braxton WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
331 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Braxton County in north central West Virginia...
  Barbour County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Upshur County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Harrison County in northern West Virginia...
  Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Taylor County in northern West Virginia...

* Until 900 AM EST.

* At 331 AM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  heavy rain had fallen due to persistent showers. Between 1.5 and 2 
  inches of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarksburg, Buckhannon, Grafton, Weston, Philippi, Sutton, Audra 
  State Park, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Belington, Stonewood, Nutter 
  Fort, Salem, Gassaway, Lumberport, Anmoore, Stonewall Jackson, 
  Jackson Mill, Rock Cave and West Milford.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 8064 3904 8051 3916 8060 3921 8053
      3929 8060 3947 8049 3939 8020 3944 7989
      3924 7981 3911 7982 3897 7990 3894 8009
      3876 8012 3868 8031 3874 8046 3853 8065
      3856 8078 3851 8088 3867 8103 3890 8061

$$

JP

887 
WGUS41 KRLX 011333
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
833 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC001-007-033-041-091-097-011700-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210301T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barbour WV-Braxton WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
833 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Braxton County in north central West Virginia...
  Barbour County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Upshur County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Harrison County in northern West Virginia...
  Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Taylor County in northern West Virginia...

* Until noon EST.

* At 833 AM EST, Flooding continues across much of the warned area 
  with creeks, streams, and even main stem rivers experiencing 
  significant rises. Many roadways remain closed due to high water. 
  The high water levels will persist through the morning.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarksburg, Buckhannon, Grafton, Weston, Philippi, Sutton, Audra 
  State Park, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Belington, Stonewood, Nutter 
  Fort, Salem, Gassaway, Lumberport, Anmoore, Stonewall Jackson, 
  Jackson Mill, Rock Cave and West Milford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 8064 3904 8051 3916 8060 3921 8053
      3929 8060 3947 8049 3939 8020 3944 7989
      3924 7981 3911 7982 3897 7990 3894 8009
      3876 8012 3868 8031 3874 8046 3853 8065
      3856 8078 3851 8088 3867 8103 3890 8061

$$

HART

848 
WGUS81 KRLX 011552
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1052 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC001-007-033-041-091-097-011700-
/O.CON.KRLX.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210301T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barbour WV-Braxton WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
1052 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BRAXTON, 
BARBOUR, UPSHUR, HARRISON, LEWIS AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 1052 AM EST, Flooding continues across much of the warned area 
with creeks, streams, and even main stem rivers experiencing 
significant rises. Many roadways remain closed due to high water. 
The high water levels will persist through the morning.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarksburg, Buckhannon, Grafton, Weston, Philippi, Sutton, Audra 
  State Park, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Belington, Stonewood, Nutter 
  Fort, Salem, Gassaway, Lumberport, Anmoore, Stonewall Jackson, 
  Jackson Mill, Rock Cave and West Milford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.



&&

LAT...LON 3894 8064 3904 8051 3916 8060 3921 8053
      3929 8060 3947 8049 3939 8020 3944 7989
      3924 7981 3911 7982 3897 7990 3894 8009
      3876 8012 3868 8031 3874 8046 3853 8065
      3856 8078 3851 8088 3867 8103 3890 8061

$$

HART

272 
WGUS41 KRLX 011653 RRB
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1153 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC001-007-033-041-091-097-020300-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210302T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barbour WV-Braxton WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
1153 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Braxton County in north central West Virginia...
  Barbour County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Upshur County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Harrison County in northern West Virginia...
  Lewis County in northern West Virginia...
  Taylor County in northern West Virginia...

* Until 1000 PM EST Monday.

* At 1153 AM EST, Flooding, significant in many areas, persists 
  across the area. Many roads remain closed as a result, especially 
  secondary roads. Despite rain having ended, flood waters will 
  remain high for much of the remainder of the day. In addition, 
  flood waters along many creeks, streams, and rivers remain high. 
  Do not cross flooded roadways.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarksburg, Buckhannon, Grafton, Weston, Philippi, Sutton, Audra 
  State Park, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Belington, Stonewood, Nutter 
  Fort, Salem, Gassaway, Lumberport, Anmoore, Stonewall Jackson, 
  Jackson Mill, Rock Cave and West Milford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.


&&

LAT...LON 3894 8064 3904 8051 3916 8060 3921 8053
      3929 8060 3947 8049 3939 8020 3944 7989
      3924 7981 3911 7982 3897 7990 3894 8009
      3876 8012 3868 8031 3874 8046 3853 8065
      3856 8078 3851 8088 3867 8103 3890 8061

$$

HART

268 
WGUS81 KRLX 011931
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
231 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC001-007-033-041-091-097-020300-
/O.CON.KRLX.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210302T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barbour WV-Braxton WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
231 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
BRAXTON, BARBOUR, UPSHUR, HARRISON, LEWIS AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 231 PM EST, Flooding, significant in many areas, persists across 
the area. Many roads remain closed as a result, especially secondary 
roads. Despite rain having ended, flood waters will remain high for 
much of the remainder of the day. In addition, flood waters along 
many creeks, streams, and rivers remain high. Do not cross flooded 
roadways.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Clarksburg, Buckhannon, Grafton, Weston, Philippi, Sutton, Audra 
  State Park, Bridgeport, Shinnston, Belington, Stonewood, Nutter 
  Fort, Salem, Gassaway, Lumberport, Anmoore, Stonewall Jackson, 
  Jackson Mill, Rock Cave and West Milford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 8064 3904 8051 3916 8060 3921 8053
      3929 8060 3947 8049 3939 8020 3944 7989
      3924 7981 3911 7982 3897 7990 3894 8009
      3876 8012 3868 8031 3874 8046 3853 8065
      3856 8078 3851 8088 3867 8103 3890 8061

$$

HART

584 
WGUS81 KRLX 020200
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
900 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC001-007-033-041-091-097-020210-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FA.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210302T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barbour WV-Braxton WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-Taylor WV-Upshur WV-
900 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR BRAXTON, BARBOUR, UPSHUR, 
HARRISON, LEWIS AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat, although any remaining backwater issues may linger. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3894 8064 3904 8051 3916 8060 3921 8053
      3929 8060 3947 8049 3939 8020 3944 7989
      3924 7981 3911 7982 3897 7990 3894 8009
      3876 8012 3868 8031 3874 8046 3853 8065
      3856 8078 3851 8088 3867 8103 3890 8061

$$

26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1246 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of moderate to heavy rain today and tonight. Cold front
exiting Monday morning brings drier conditions for the start of
the work week. Low pressure passes south Wednesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Sunday...

Minor adjustments to PoPs were made this morning, but the
general trend remains of brief lulls in rain plausible during
the day before the more prolonged rainfall arrives tonight. A
few areal flood warnings have gone into effect today as rainfall
totals top out between 1.5-2 inches in portions of our western
areas. Multiple reports across the Kanawha Valley have been
relayed to the office this morning of flooded roadways, so
continue to heed caution if going out and about today.

As of 330 AM Sunday...

Made some updates to QPF based on latest WPC guidance to
maintain a more consistent forecast picture with the outlooked
moderate risk of excessive rainfall. This reflects more
potential overlap between multiple rain swaths this morning and
this afternoon, mainly along and north the I-64/79 corridor.
Rapid update guidance dprog/dt trends continue to suggest the
axis of heaviest rainfall totals could shift even father north.
Additional changes are possible this morning if these trends
continue.

As of 130 AM Sunday...

Moderate to heavy rainfall will work its way north through the mid
to late morning hours supported by low level convergence at the nose
of a strengthening H850 jet down low and the fringes of the right
entrance region of a 150KT H300 jet streak across the Great Lakes.
Modest elevated instability of 200-400j/kg this morning will
likely yield at least some embedded thunder. It is possible for
a few storms to become surface based along the southern fringe
of the precipitation shield this afternoon where surface
temperatures could reach the mid 60s. Given the presence of
large looping low level hodographs, MLCAPE values of 300-400j/kg
and a near saturated column will have a non-zero risk of a
brief spin-up along this effective boundary, should any storms
be able to become attached to it. Based on current guidance, the
most likely area for this to occur is NE KY eastward into the
Metro Valley.

As favorable jet dynamics begin to shift northeast this afternoon
into this evening and resultant H850 response weakens slightly,
effective warm front will stall in the vicinity of the Ohio River
with some tempering of rainfall rates expected. Frontolysis of this
feature is expected as support is lost, however lingering juicy low
level moisture will eventually be squeezed out by a cold front
approaching during the late overnight.

Another jet streak is expected to move into a favorable position for
forcing for ascent and resultant low level response by late this
evening yielding a second effective warm front, roughly bisecting
the region from west to east. This is expected to provide a renewed
focus for banded moderate to heavy precipitation slowly working
south as the jet streak shifts southeast. The big forecast question
is, how much of this area of rainfall will overlap the higher
precipitation totals from earlier in the day that will significantly
compromise moisture holding ability of the soil.

Finally, the aforementioned cold front sweeps through during the late
overnight into Monday morning yielding yet another area of moderate
precipitation. This should be a bit more progressive than the
previous two areas, however, given potential antecedent soil
moisture will likely cause some additional issues over the Lowlands.
In the mountains where upslope is maximized with this feature, could
see some more significant issues on the tail end of the event,
although this again will largely be contingent on what falls today.

Event total rainfall (inclusive of what fell yesterday) forecast has
not changed much, generally 1 to 1.5 inches across SE OH, 2 to 3
inches across central WV and 2.5 to 4 inches across SW VA and S WV.
These values should be reasonably representative of basin averages,
with locally higher values in the vicinity of the aforementioned warm
fronts and lesser values away from these features. Local impacts to
smaller creeks, streams as well as any high water trouble spots will
be highly contingent on the ultimate position of these more
significant swaths of heavy rainfall, while larger water bodies
should see a little more predictable response.

In addition to high water impacts, given the time of year with
weakened ground cover and a winter long freeze/thaw cycle, mud
slides as well as rock slides will be possible in any steeper
terrain with heavier rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Cold front and upper level short wave trough exit first thing
Monday morning, taking the moderate to heavy rain with it, with
little additional accumulation. Stratus/stratocu beneath the
frontal inversion will mix out from northwest to southeast
Monday midday and afternoon, as much drier air arrives. Even
drier air arrives behind a reinforcing moisture starved cold
front that crosses Monday night.

High pressure crosses Tuesday. After providing a cold start amid
clear, nearly calm conditions by dawn Tuesday, the strengthening
early March sun will take advantage of a lowering subsidence
inversion to take temperatures back up into the 40s for
afternoon highs.

Clouds increase Tuesday night, ahead of a southern stream
closed low that tracks south of the area Wednesday morning.
Models are still diverged on how far north precipitation sneaks
Wednesday morning, before exiting to the east by afternoon.

The column starts out cold enough for snow overnight Tuesday
night, but with surface temperatures climbing above freezing
Wednesday morning, any snow will become a wet, non-accumulating
snow and, ultimately, rain, from south to north, before ending
from west to east by Wednesday afternoon.

Temperatures close to central guidance, except a bit lower in
the valleys Tuesday morning, and otherwise a little below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Saturday...

A northern stream short wave trough drops a reinforcing
moisture starved cold front through the area Wednesday night,
as the short wave drops into a long wave trough position along
the east coast. Arctic high pressure then builds toward the
area, but the arctic air mass will have time to be modified
under the strengthening early March sun, as it takes until at
least Sunday for the high to settle in over the area. With
another southern stream low opening up as it passes south of the
area Friday night into Saturday, shunted south by the
aforementioned northern stream troughing, a period of dry, quiet
weather appears to be on tap for the latter portion of the
upcoming week.

Central guidance temperatures accepted, which reflect near
normal temperatures to start out, before dropping back below
normal as the high of arctic origin builds toward the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Sunday...

Warm front lifting north through the area at the time of writing
has allowed for a few terminals (CRW, HTS, BKW) to break free of
flight restrictions for a fleeting moment this afternoon.
Otherwise, northern terminals will remain under the constraints
of a combination of vsbys/ceiling restrictions as the front and
its accompanying rain shield, heavy at times, continues its
northward progression.

All terminals return to IFR or worse overnight as a renewed area
of rain enters in from eastern Kentucky. Flight conditions
overnight will be bleak beneath low stratus holding dominance
overhead. Heavy rainfall will maintain low visibility at most,
if not all, sites through the predawn hours.

A cold front will cross through the region on Monday morning,
prompting one last shot of showers, but will prove to be more
progressive than its predecessors and quickly rid the area of
rain from west to east. By the conclusion of the current TAF
period, all sites outside of the mountains are expected to have
returned to VFR as drier air filters in from the west. For our
mountain terminals, lingering stratus/stratocu will hug the
higher terrain through the remainder of the day Monday, before a
reinforcing cold front dismisses loitering moisture overnight
into Tuesday.

Winds today will be primarily out of the south/southwest in
response to the warm front lifting north and could create a few
gusts at TAF sites as it passes through. Steady winds of 5-10
kts remain prevalent overnight out of the southwest, then veers
more westerly in the wake of the cold front by Monday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings likely waver significantly during
periods of moderate to heavy rain through the overnight hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No IFR conditions in the foreseeable future after Monday
afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>008-013>020-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/MEK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MEK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
512 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>020-024>034-039-
040-515>526-011015-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-
Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-
Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
512 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ075-076-083>085-WVZ009>011-011015-
Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-
512 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio
and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A low pressure system will bring rounds of rain today and tonight.
This will lead to strong rises of area creeks and rivers, which may
result in high water issues. Poor drainage flooding and hydroplaning
are also possible. This area is in a marginal to slight risk for
excessive rainfall today through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-011015-
Perry-Morgan-
512 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Perry and Morgan counties in
interior southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

A low pressure system will bring rounds of rain today and tonight.
This could lead to rises of area creeks and rivers, which may result
in high water issues. Poor drainage flooding and hydroplaning are
also possible. This area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
today through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

JP / TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 AM     FLOOD            PEACH RIDGE ROAD        38.46N 82.01W
02/28/2021                   PUTNAM             WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            INDIVIDUAL DROVE VEHICLE INTO FLOOD WATERS
            THAT COMPLETELY COVERED PEACH RIDGE ROAD,
            BUT BECAME STRANDED WITH WATERS RAPIDLY
            RISING. INDIVIDUAL WAS SAFELY RESCUED BY
            FIRE DEPT. PICTURES INDICATED SIGNIFICANT
            FLOODING OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1247 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLOOD            TEAYS VALLEY RD         38.44N 81.98W
02/28/2021                   PUTNAM             WV   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RESERVOIR IN HURRICANE NEXT TO TEAYS VALLEY
            RD IS OVERFLOWING ONTO TEAYS VALLEY RD (HWY
            34) WITH THAT SECTION CLOSED THIS
            ESSENTIALLY CUTS OFF TEAYS VALLEY FROM
            HURRICANE UNLESS YOU TAKE THE INTERSTATE.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
101 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     FLOOD            4 SSE HURRICANE         38.39N 82.00W
02/28/2021                   PUTNAM             WV   PUBLIC

            SYCAMORE RIDGE ROAD AND CHARLEYS CREED RD
            BOTH FLOODED.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
103 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 AM     FLOOD            CULLODEN                38.42N 82.06W
02/28/2021                   CABELL             WV   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED IN CULLODEN AREA.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     FLOOD            FALLSBURG CAMPGROUND    38.13N 82.66W
02/28/2021                   LAWRENCE           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM RELAYED VIDEO OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
            ALONG MUCH OF KY3. FALLSBURG CAMPGROUND
            NEARLY COMPLETELY UNDER WATER. WATER INTO
            HOMES ALONG KENTUCKY ROUTE 3.

&&

HART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
130 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     FLOOD            PEEWEE                  38.96N 81.49W
02/28/2021                   WIRT               WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED SEVERAL ROADS IN THE AREA
            CLOSED, INCLUDING CR30 AND CRANESNEST RD DUE
            TO FLOODING OF RIGHT REEDY CREEK.

&&

HART