River Flood Warning 19, NWS Portland, OR

151 
WGUS86 KPQR 131109
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
309 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Siletz River at Siletz affecting Lincoln County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...
Washington...

  Nehalem River near Vernonia affecting Columbia County.

  Alsea River near Tidewater affecting Lincoln and Benton Counties.

  Trask River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County.

  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County.

  Nehalem River near Foss affecting Tillamook and Clatsop Counties.

  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County.

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this morning at 1100 AM PST.

&&


ORC009-131915-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-210113T2018Z/
/VENO3.1.ER.210113T1013Z.210113T1200Z.210113T1418Z.NO/
309 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Nehalem River near Vernonia.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 2:50 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:50 AM PST Wednesday was 12.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.2 feet 
  early this morning. It will then fall below flood stage later this 
  morning.
* Impact...Above 12.0 feet, expect minor flooding of low-lying areas 
  in and near Vernonia.


&&

LAT...LON 4582 12392 4584 12327 4585 12325 4585 12321
      4586 12320 4586 12318 4587 12318 4589 12316
      4590 12316 4590 12315 4588 12314 4587 12316
      4586 12316 4585 12317 4585 12319 4584 12320
      4584 12322 4582 12327 4580 12327

$$

ORC041-131915-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210114T1059Z/
/SILO3.2.ER.210113T0410Z.210113T1030Z.210114T0459Z.NO/
309 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Siletz River at Siletz.
* Until late tonight.
* At 2:30 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 21.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:30 AM PST Wednesday was 21.3 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday night.
* Impact...Above 20.0 feet, expect widespread flooding downstream. 
  Increased flooding can be expected in the housing development 
  downstream from Mack Landing. Numerous private roads and a trailor 
  park between mile post 2.5 and mile post 5 near Sunset Landing to 
  Coyote Rock are flooded. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.


&&

LAT...LON 4488 12399 4489 12398 4489 12394 4488 12391
      4485 12393 4481 12393 4480 12389 4475 12388
      4475 12379 4473 12379 4471 12388 4471 12394
      4473 12395 4479 12395 4480 12402 4486 12400

$$

ORC003-041-131915-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-210114T0718Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.210113T0908Z.210113T1800Z.210114T0118Z.NO/
309 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alsea River near Tidewater.
* Until this evening.
* At 2:00 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:00 AM PST Wednesday was 18.6 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 19.8 feet 
  late this morning. It will then fall below flood stage later today.
* Impact...Above 20.0 feet, water begins to surround houses at the 
  'Little Albany' community on Highway 34 near Milepost 8. 
  Widespread pasture and dairy land flooding can be expected. 
  Flooding of numerous roads along and near the river occurs at this 
  level.


&&

LAT...LON 4443 12400 4442 12391 4440 12382 4438 12382
      4439 12370 4437 12369 4439 12363 4439 12360
      4437 12360 4437 12363 4434 12368 4434 12373
      4437 12373 4436 12380 4434 12384 4435 12386
      4438 12386 4439 12400

$$

ORC057-131915-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-210114T0142Z/
/TRAO3.1.ER.210113T0904Z.210113T1000Z.210113T1942Z.NO/
309 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trask River near Tillamook.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 2:00 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 16.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:00 AM PST Wednesday was 16.9 feet.
* Forecast...The river is currently near its crest at 16.9 feet. It 
  will fall below flood stage towards midday.
* Impact...Above 16.5 feet, expect minor flooding along the lower 
  Trask River. Dairy farms, buildings, and a few residences adjacent 
  to the Trask in the vicinity of Hwy 101 may be threatened.


&&

LAT...LON 4546 12388 4547 12387 4544 12382 4545 12378
      4545 12374 4546 12369 4545 12369 4543 12372
      4543 12378 4542 12381 4543 12384

$$

ORC039-131915-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210114T0358Z/
/MPLO3.1.ER.210113T0133Z.210113T1200Z.210113T2158Z.NO/
309 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* Until this evening.
* At 2:15 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 20.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:15 AM PST Wednesday was 20.6 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.7 feet 
  early this morning. It will then fall below flood stage this 
  afternoon or evening.
* Impact...Above 20.0 feet, expect water over East Mapleton Road. 
  Flooding of some low-lying homes and structures begins. Flooding 
  may be exacerbated by high tide.


&&

LAT...LON 4399 12407 4403 12398 4403 12387 4405 12390
      4407 12390 4408 12388 4408 12386 4406 12379
      4405 12379 4405 12381 4406 12387 4405 12387
      4403 12384 4401 12385 4401 12398 4397 12405

$$

ORC007-057-131915-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210114T0839Z/
/FSSO3.1.ER.210113T0558Z.210113T1200Z.210114T0239Z.NO/
309 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Nehalem River near Foss.
* Until late tonight.
* At 2:15 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:15 AM PST Wednesday was 17.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near 18.0 feet this 
  morning and will likely fall below flood stage later today or 
  tonight.
* Impact...Above 18.0 feet, expect widespread flooding of low lying 
  farm land and structures downstream of the Foss gauging station to 
  Nehalem. Street flooding in the town of Nehalem begins at this 
  point, usually during the high tide.


&&

LAT...LON 4570 12390 4572 12390 4574 12388 4574 12386
      4573 12385 4571 12385 4570 12380 4571 12377
      4571 12376 4570 12375 4569 12377 4569 12383

$$

ORC057-131915-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-210114T0505Z/
/TLMO3.2.ER.210112T1504Z.210113T1030Z.210113T2305Z.UU/
309 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Wilson River near Tillamook.
* Until this evening.
* At 2:30 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 16.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:30 AM PST Wednesday was 16.7 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this afternoon or evening.
* Impact...Above 16.5 feet, expect flooding to start in the Wilson 
  River RV park east of Tillamook.  Expect flooding of low areas on 
  Hwy 101 and Hwy 6 in and near Tillamook, along with flooding of 
  numerous low areas on rural roads and property in the area.


&&

LAT...LON 4548 12387 4549 12386 4548 12384 4548 12377
      4549 12371 4547 12370 4546 12375 4546 12384

$$

WAC069-131915-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210114T2127Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210112T1131Z.210113T1200Z.210114T1527Z.UU/
309 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 2:15 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 15.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 2:15 AM PST Wednesday was 15.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 15.8 feet 
  early this morning. It will then fall below flood stage early 
  Thursday.
* Impact...Above 16.0 feet, expect major flooding of lowland areas 
  and roads in the vicinity of Hwy 4 and Rosburg. Numerous road 
  closures are likely. Some buildings in low areas near the river 
  are threatened with flooding above this level.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

Neuman

629 
WGUS86 KPQR 131504
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
704 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Alsea River near Tidewater affecting Lincoln and Benton Counties.

  Siuslaw River near Mapleton affecting Lane County.

  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Nehalem River near Vernonia affecting Columbia County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...
Washington...

  Trask River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County.

  Siletz River at Siletz affecting Lincoln County.

  Nehalem River near Foss affecting Tillamook and Clatsop Counties.

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this morning at 800 AM PST.

&&


ORC009-131615-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-210113T1504Z/
/VENO3.1.ER.210113T1013Z.210113T1200Z.210113T1418Z.NO/
704 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Nehalem River near Vernonia has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Nehalem River near Vernonia.
* At 6:35 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has fallen below minor flood stage and should 
  continue to recede this morning.


&&

LAT...LON 4582 12392 4584 12327 4585 12325 4585 12321
      4586 12320 4586 12318 4587 12318 4589 12316
      4590 12316 4590 12315 4588 12314 4587 12316
      4586 12316 4585 12317 4585 12319 4584 12320
      4584 12322 4582 12327 4580 12327

$$

ORC003-041-132200-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-210114T1050Z/
/TIDO3.1.ER.210113T0908Z.210113T1800Z.210114T0450Z.NO/
704 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Alsea River near Tidewater.
* Until late tonight.
* At 6:15 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 20.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:15 AM PST Wednesday was 20.7 feet.
* Forecast...The river is currently cresting and the river is 
  expected to drop below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...Above 21.0 feet, expect widespread flooding along the 
  Alsea. Flood waters will likely inundate property around homes and 
  structures in communities along the Alsea, such as Tidewater, 
  Alsea Riviera, Little Switzerland, and Little Albany. Erosion 
  along the Alsea and tributary creeks may also cause localized 
  damage.


&&

LAT...LON 4443 12400 4442 12391 4440 12382 4438 12382
      4439 12370 4437 12369 4439 12363 4439 12360
      4437 12360 4437 12363 4434 12368 4434 12373
      4437 12373 4436 12380 4434 12384 4435 12386
      4438 12386 4439 12400

$$

ORC057-132200-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-210113T2217Z/
/TRAO3.1.ER.210113T0904Z.210113T1145Z.210113T1617Z.NO/
704 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Trask River near Tillamook.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 6:00 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:00 AM PST Wednesday was 17.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  morning.
* Impact...Above 16.5 feet, expect minor flooding along the lower 
  Trask River. Dairy farms, buildings, and a few residences adjacent 
  to the Trask in the vicinity of Hwy 101 may be threatened.


&&

LAT...LON 4546 12388 4547 12387 4544 12382 4545 12378
      4545 12374 4546 12369 4545 12369 4543 12372
      4543 12378 4542 12381 4543 12384

$$

ORC039-132200-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210114T0902Z/
/MPLO3.1.ER.210113T0133Z.210113T1800Z.210114T0302Z.NO/
704 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Siuslaw River near Mapleton.
* Until late tonight.
* At 6:00 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 21.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:00 AM PST Wednesday was 21.3 feet.
* Forecast...The river is current nearing its crest and is expected 
  to fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...Above 22.0 feet, expect widespread flooding of low-lying 
  land. Several homes and structures in low areas of Mapleton start 
  to flood. Numerous rural roads along and near the Siuslaw River 
  will likely be flooded, and water begins to cover the lower 
  sections of Hwy 126 at this stage. Flooding may be exacerbated 
  during high tide.


&&

LAT...LON 4399 12407 4403 12398 4403 12387 4405 12390
      4407 12390 4408 12388 4408 12386 4406 12379
      4405 12379 4405 12381 4406 12387 4405 12387
      4403 12384 4401 12385 4401 12398 4397 12405

$$

ORC041-132200-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-210114T1057Z/
/SILO3.2.ER.210113T0410Z.210113T1145Z.210114T0457Z.NO/
704 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Siletz River at Siletz.
* Until late tonight.
* At 6:30 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 20.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:30 AM PST Wednesday was 21.6 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below moderate flood 
  stage this morning and it should drop below minor flood stage 
  tonight.
* Impact...Above 20.0 feet, expect widespread flooding downstream. 
  Increased flooding can be expected in the housing development 
  downstream from Mack Landing. Numerous private roads and a trailor 
  park between mile post 2.5 and mile post 5 near Sunset Landing to 
  Coyote Rock are flooded. Flooding may be exacerbated during high 
  tide.


&&

LAT...LON 4488 12399 4489 12398 4489 12394 4488 12391
      4485 12393 4481 12393 4480 12389 4475 12388
      4475 12379 4473 12379 4471 12388 4471 12394
      4473 12395 4479 12395 4480 12402 4486 12400

$$

ORC007-057-132200-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-210114T0739Z/
/FSSO3.1.ER.210113T0558Z.210113T1315Z.210114T0139Z.NO/
704 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Nehalem River near Foss.
* Until this evening.
* At 6:15 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:15 AM PST Wednesday was 17.7 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage either 
  this afternoon or evening.
* Impact...Above 18.0 feet, expect widespread flooding of low lying 
  farm land and structures downstream of the Foss gauging station to 
  Nehalem. Street flooding in the town of Nehalem begins at this 
  point, usually during the high tide.


&&

LAT...LON 4570 12390 4572 12390 4574 12388 4574 12386
      4573 12385 4571 12385 4570 12380 4571 12377
      4571 12376 4570 12375 4569 12377 4569 12383

$$

ORC057-132200-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-210114T0645Z/
/TLMO3.2.ER.210112T1504Z.210113T1045Z.210114T0045Z.UU/
704 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Wilson River near Tillamook.
* Until this evening.
* At 6:30 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 15.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 6:30 AM PST Wednesday was 16.7 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  afternoon or evening.
* Impact...Above 15.5 feet, expect widespread flooding in the north 
  part of Tillamook along Hwy 101 to the vicinity of the Tillamook 
  Cheese Factory, especially during high tides. The most noticable 
  flood impacts are to low-lying roads and some buildings near 
  Dougherty Slough and the lower Wilson River. Widespread flooding 
  of low lying dairy and pasture land and some rural access roads 
  outside of Tillamook can be expected as well.


&&

LAT...LON 4548 12387 4549 12386 4548 12384 4548 12377
      4549 12371 4547 12370 4546 12375 4546 12384

$$

WAC069-132200-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210114T2127Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210112T1131Z.210112T1800Z.210114T1527Z.UU/
704 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 5:15 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 15.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 5:15 AM PST Wednesday was 15.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage 
  Thursday.
* Impact...Above 16.0 feet, expect major flooding of lowland areas 
  and roads in the vicinity of Hwy 4 and Rosburg. Numerous road 
  closures are likely. Some buildings in low areas near the river 
  are threatened with flooding above this level.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

Neuman

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Portland OR
910 PM PST Tue Jan 12 2021

Updated Hydrology discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...A warm front has pushed inland while a weak cold front
will trail behind. Moderate to heavy rain will persist through
Wednesday with the potential for river, rural, and urban flooding.
Strong winds are expected along the Oregon coast through tonight,
with breezy conditions for the Willamette Valley this evening. Large
surf and high tides will result in hazardous conditions for the
beaches and low-lying coastal areas through Wednesday. Dry weather on
Thursday will allow rivers to recede before the next weaker front
that is expected Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Quite an active day
composed of rain, wind and flooding which will persist through
Wednesday. Synoptically, the pattern is comprised of a broad area of
low pressure with several embedded fronts within the general flow.
The jet stream at 30,000 ft is southwest to northeast oriented with
the main jet streak sitting just north of the forecast area over
north and central Washington. Within the streak wind speeds are
reaching around 120 kt. This jet stream is supporting the surface
fronts which is allowing them to be quite strong and active.

The first front of the series was a quasi-stationary warm front which
produced a significant amount of rain overnight into today. This
front has continued to be a big rain maker although satellite and
radar do show some slight erosion and weakening of rainfall. With the
prolonged period of moderate and sometimes heavy rain, there have
been several urban and rural rivers throughout the area that have
reached bank full or have flooded. Tidal overflow was also a major
concern this afternoon with high tides to nearly 13 ft along the
south Washington coast. As high tide has passed, it should no longer
be a concern but it may take a while for water to recede, especially
due to local rivers being quite full. High winds along the coast are
likely to persist for several more hours but should slowly dissipate
overnight.

The second front, a slightly cooler front, is beginning to drop down
towards the area this evening. This front is rejuvenating the rain
along the coast and will continue to do so overnight. Likely going to
see another bout of heavier rain overnight tonight into early
Wednesday morning. This will especially be true along the coast and
the central Cascades. Hi-res model guidance and the track of the
front shows the bulk of the rain avoiding the northern portions of
the forecast area and the south Washington Cascades...although can't
rule out more rain than what is currently forecast. Either way,
expect additional rainfall accumulations which will likely keep
rivers full.

On Wednesday though a change is in store. The fronts will have both
passed and a weak area of high pressure will build in behind them.
This ridge will allow for a few sun breaks and the rain will taper
off through the early afternoon. this will be the trend through
Thursday as well. Southwesterly flow will dominate the area Wednesday
night through Thursday which will usher in dry and warmer air from
the CONUS southwest. Temperatures around 5000 ft will range from 5-9C
so expecting daytime temperatures to be slightly warmer. The break
will be much needed as another front will advance over the area very
early Friday.	-Muessle

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night...Another front is expected
to move onshore Thursday evening but it will be a bit weaker than the
ones experienced earlier in the week. Recent model runs are
suggesting a weak atmospheric river event with IVT values near 250
kg/ms. As there is still quite a bit of time between now and this
event, not hanging a hat on an atmospheric river forecast. There is
also significantly less upper level support as the jet stream is much
weaker and is falling apart just before reaching the area. While
there is ample moisture available to this system, the lack of
dynamics means that there will need to be some sort of change in
order to tap into it, and create the heavier rain. The front
should move through the area rather quickly and over by Friday
afternoon with rainfall totals likely remaining below an inch even
across the terrain favored areas. Snow levels will be at or above
5000 feet and do not anticipate much if any snow from this front.
High pressure rebuilds Friday night and Saturday for a brief period
of dry weather in the wake of this front. Models are in good
agreement on another non impressive front Saturday night through
Sunday followed by dry weather next Monday. -Muessle/TJ

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The next round of moderate to heavy rainfall is
currently ongoing Tuesday evening with the main frontal band surging
along the Oregon/Washington coast. As it pushes inland expect max
hourly rainfall rates to increase during a 2-3 hour period. Mainstem
rivers currently above flood stage include the Grays River near
Rosburg, Wilson River near Tillamook, and Siuslaw River near
Mapleton. The Grays and Wilson Rivers have already crested but are
not expected to fall below flood stage until Wednesday morning.
Other coastal and inland rivers at bankfull that are expected to rise
above minor flood stage include the Cowlitz River at Kelso, Nehalem
River at Foss, Siletz River at Siletz, Tualatin River near Dilley,
Marys River near Philomath, Luckiamute River near Suver, as well as
the Clackamas River near Estacada.

Besides Mainstem rivers, small streams and creeks will also rise,
and possibly flood tonight. Minor urban flooding in poorly drained
areas is also possible. Will continue the Flood Watch for the same
areas to account for all of the flooding concerns. The saturated
soils will also likely lead to land slides. /DDH

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread MVFR conditions, occasionally dipping into
IFR category especially along the coast, will continue with periods
of rain through the evening ahead of a cold front. A few areas in
the Willamette Valley will continue to see areas of VFR conditions
as well. A cold front moving southeast across the region tonight
will allow the rain to taper off behind the front after 03Z-09Z.
Expect gusty southerly winds to temporarily pick up as the front
moves through between 02Z and 08Z along the coast, and from 05Z-09Z
inland. MVFR ceilings will still be widespread behind the front
after 07Z-09Z, but improvement to VFR category can be expected
Wednesday, as early as 09-12Z on the north coast, to as late as 18
to 22Z in the South Willamette Valley.

For detailed regional Pac NW weather information, go online to:
http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions, occasionally IFR conditions
can be expected to continue through about 09Z tonight. Gusty south
winds may pick up temporarily ahead of a cold front between 05Z and
09Z. Behind the front rain will taper off, but it is likely MVFR
ceilings continue into the morning Wednesday, before VFR conditions
return after 17Z-20Z.
&&

.MARINE...A westerly swell continues tonight and through Wednesday,
with a slow decrease in heights and periods expected. Southerly
Gales will continue through the evening ahead of a southeast moving
cold front, with a few storm force gusts still likely south of Cape
Shoalwater. As the cold front moves through during the evening,
winds will switch around to the west and decrease to under 30 kt.
Steep wind driven seas out of the south will continue as a fresh
swell, decreasing late tonight and Wednesday. Combined seas from the
west and southerly swells were running 20 to 24 ft Tuesday
afternoon, and should begin to drop under 20 ft late tonight.

As high pressure moves in behind the front Wednesday, winds and seas
will continue to diminish, likely below 20 kt by Wednesday afternoon
and below 15 ft by Wednesday evening.

A much weaker cold front is expected to move into the waters
Thursday night bringing small craft advisory level winds, followed
by another long period westerly swell train arriving Friday and
building seas back into the range of 15 to 20 ft late Friday
and Friday night.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Cascade Foothills in
     Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-Central Coast Range of
     Western Oregon-Central Columbia River Gorge-Central Oregon
     Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest
     Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-North
     Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-Northern
     Oregon Cascades-South Willamette Valley-Western Columbia
     River Gorge.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Central
     Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Central
     Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

     High Wind Warning until 2 AM PST Wednesday for Central Oregon
     Coast.

     High Wind Warning until midnight PST tonight for North Oregon
     Coast.

WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Central Columbia
     River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz
     County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington
     Cascades-South Washington Coast-Western Columbia River
     Gorge-Willapa Hills.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for South
     Washington Coast.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for South
     Washington Coast.

PZ...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for coastal waters
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60
     NM.Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Wednesday for Columbia
     River Bar.

     Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal waters
     from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 NM.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
928 PM PST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E MAPLETON            44.03N 123.83W
01/12/2021  M1.25 INCH       LANE               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY WINDY AS WELL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1119 PM PST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     FLOOD            2 S RALEIGH HILLS       45.46N 122.75W
01/12/2021                   WASHINGTON         OR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ASH CREEK JUMPED ITS BANKS, WITH WATER
            ENTERING FINISHED BASEMENT OF HOME.

&&

SMW