River Flood Warning 18, NWS Portland, OR

863 
WGUS86 KPQR 131002
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
202 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Tualatin River near Dilley affecting Washington County.

  Luckiamute River near Suver affecting Polk and Benton Counties.

  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...
Washington...

  Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Multnomah and Clackamas 
  Counties.

  Cowlitz River at Kelso affecting Cowlitz County.

  Marys River near Philomath affecting Benton County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this morning at 1045 AM PST.

&&


ORC005-051-131800-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0018.210113T1002Z-210113T1922Z/
/SYCO3.1.ER.210113T1000Z.210113T1200Z.210113T1322Z.NO/
202 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Johnson Creek at Sycamore.
* From early this morning to this morning.
* At 1:30 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  this morning. It will then fall below flood stage later this 
  morning.
* Impact...Above 11.0 feet, minor flooding begins along Johnson 
  Creek between SE 92nd Street to SE 122nd Street and between 
  Johnson Creek and SE Harold Street.


&&

LAT...LON 4546 12262 4547 12262 4546 12259 4548 12256
      4548 12251 4549 12248 4549 12245 4548 12245
      4548 12248 4547 12251 4547 12256 4545 12259

$$

ORC067-131800-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0017.210113T1002Z-210115T0500Z/
/DLLO3.1.ER.210113T0720Z.210114T0000Z.210114T2000Z.NR/
202 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tualatin River near Dilley.
* From early this morning to Thursday evening.
* At 1:40 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 17.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. This 
  approaches the flood of record.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 1:40 AM PST Wednesday was 17.7 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.0 feet 
  late this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...Above 17.5 feet, several minor roads begin to flood and 
  may be closed. Widespread lowland agricultural flooding occurs at 
  this and higher stages.


&&

LAT...LON 4544 12314 4548 12313 4551 12309 4551 12308
      4550 12305 4549 12305 4549 12309 4543 12313

$$

ORC003-053-131800-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210114T1810Z/
/SUVO3.1.ER.210113T0806Z.210113T1800Z.210114T0910Z.NO/
202 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Luckiamute River near Suver.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 1:31 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 27.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 1:31 AM PST Wednesday was 27.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 29.3 feet 
  later this morning. It should fall below flood stage Wednesday 
  night.
* Impact...Above 29.0 feet, expect widespread flooding of the 
  lowland agricultural lands upstream from Falls City and Maple 
  Grove to the confluence with the Willamette River. Also expect 
  flooding and possible closure of numerous secondary roads near the 
  river.


&&

LAT...LON 4484 12340 4486 12340 4483 12333 4481 12333
      4479 12320 4477 12320 4476 12316 4473 12316
      4475 12323 4477 12323 4480 12336 4482 12336

$$

ORC005-131800-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-210114T0616Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.210113T0948Z.210113T1800Z.210114T0016Z.NO/
202 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Clackamas River at Estacada.
* Until this evening.
* At 11:45 PM PST Tuesday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 22.2 feet 
  late this morning. It will then fall below flood stage late this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...Above 23.0 feet, expect flooding to begin in the light 
  industrial areas near the confluence of the Clackamas and 
  Willamette Rivers. A trailer court at Carver is threatened at this 
  point. Some access roads are flooded and closed above this level 
  from Estacada downstream to Carver.


&&

LAT...LON 4539 12251 4540 12250 4540 12248 4539 12246
      4539 12242 4538 12239 4530 12235 4529 12236
      4530 12238 4532 12239 4536 12240 4538 12242
      4537 12247 4538 12250

$$

WAC015-131800-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0016.210113T2245Z-210114T0720Z/
/KELW1.1.ER.210113T2245Z.210114T0000Z.210114T0120Z.NO/
202 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowlitz River at Kelso.
* From this afternoon to this evening.
* At 1:45 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 20.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage late this 
  afternoon to 21.6 feet late this afternoon. It will fall below 
  flood stage this evening to 19.3 feet and then begin rising early 
  Friday morning.
* Impact...Above 21.5 feet, flooding of several low lying and 
  secondary roads begins, including the Cowlitz Gardens 
  neighborhood, along with flooding of pasture and lowland upstream 
  of Kelso.


&&

LAT...LON 4621 12292 4621 12290 4620 12290 4619 12289
      4618 12289 4613 12290 4611 12288 4610 12290
      4613 12294

$$

ORC003-131800-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210114T0931Z/
/PHIO3.3.ER.210113T0522Z.210113T1200Z.210114T0331Z.NR/
202 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Marys River near Philomath.
* Until late tonight.
* At 1:15 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 21.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Major flooding is just beginning to occur and will continue 
  through this morning.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 1:15 AM PST Wednesday was 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  evening and continue falling to 13.8 feet by late Friday evening.
* Impact...Above 21.0 feet, expect major and widespread flooding 
  along the Marys River from Philomath to Corvallis, with numerous 
  homes and farms affected. Several roads will likely be flooded, 
  including Grange Hall Road, 13th Street / Fern Road, Chapel Drive, 
  and Bellfountain Road.


&&

LAT...LON 4453 12339 4454 12338 4453 12331 4454 12329
      4456 12328 4456 12327 4454 12327 4452 12329
      4451 12331

$$

Neuman

000 
WGUS86 KPQR 131348
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
548 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oregon...Washington...

  Tualatin River near Dilley affecting Washington County.

  Cowlitz River at Kelso affecting Cowlitz County.

  Marys River near Philomath affecting Benton County.

  Luckiamute River near Suver affecting Polk and Benton Counties.

  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County.

...Observed flooding changed to Minor severity and increased in 
duration for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Multnomah and Clackamas 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this morning at 1130 AM PST.

&&


ORC005-051-131945-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-210113T1938Z/
/SYCO3.1.ER.210113T1000Z.210113T1115Z.210113T1338Z.NO/
548 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...Observed flooding increased to Minor severity and increased in 
duration until late this morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Johnson Creek at Sycamore.
* Until this morning.
* At 5:30 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 5:30 AM PST Wednesday was 11.3 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage later 
  this morning.
* Impact...Above 11.0 feet, minor flooding begins along Johnson 
  Creek between SE 92nd Street to SE 122nd Street and between 
  Johnson Creek and SE Harold Street.


&&

LAT...LON 4546 12262 4547 12262 4546 12259 4548 12256
      4548 12251 4549 12248 4549 12245 4548 12245
      4548 12248 4547 12251 4547 12256 4545 12259

$$

ORC067-131945-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210115T0555Z/
/DLLO3.1.ER.210113T0720Z.210114T0000Z.210114T2055Z.NR/
548 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tualatin River near Dilley.
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 5:30 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 5:30 AM PST Wednesday was 17.9 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.0 feet 
  late this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late 
  Thursday.
* Impact...Above 18.5 feet, a few homes are threatened by 
  floodwaters. Numerous roads are flooded and may be closed, and 
  widespread lowland agricultural flooding occurs.


&&

LAT...LON 4544 12314 4548 12313 4551 12309 4551 12308
      4550 12305 4549 12305 4549 12309 4543 12313

$$

WAC015-131945-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0016.210113T1348Z-210114T1058Z/
/KELW1.1.ER.210113T1300Z.210114T0000Z.210114T0458Z.NO/
548 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowlitz River at Kelso.
* From early this morning to late tonight.
* At 5:30 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 21.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 5:30 AM PST Wednesday was 21.6 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 22 feet later today. It 
  will likely fall below flood stage either tonight or Thursday.
* Impact...Above 21.5 feet, flooding of several low lying and 
  secondary roads begins, including the Cowlitz Gardens 
  neighborhood, along with flooding of pasture and lowland upstream 
  of Kelso.


&&

LAT...LON 4621 12292 4621 12290 4620 12290 4619 12289
      4618 12289 4613 12290 4611 12288 4610 12290
      4613 12294

$$

ORC003-131945-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210114T1333Z/
/PHIO3.3.ER.210113T0522Z.210113T1800Z.210114T0733Z.NR/
548 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Marys River near Philomath.
* Until late tonight.
* At 5:00 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 21.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. 
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 5:00 AM PST Wednesday was 21.2 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...Above 21.3 feet, expect major and widespread flooding in 
  Philomath and Corvallis and rural areas along the lower Marys 
  River. Grange Hall Road, Fern Road, Chapel Drive, and Bellfountain 
  Road will likely be flooded. The flow at this level is about 9,000 
  cfs and has a 20 percent chance of happening in a given year (aka 
  5-year flood)


&&

LAT...LON 4453 12339 4454 12338 4453 12331 4454 12329
      4456 12328 4456 12327 4454 12327 4452 12329
      4451 12331

$$

ORC003-053-131945-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210114T1829Z/
/SUVO3.1.ER.210113T0806Z.210113T1800Z.210114T0929Z.NO/
548 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Luckiamute River near Suver.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 5:21 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 28.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 5:21 AM PST Wednesday was 29.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage either 
  tonight or Thursday.
* Impact...Above 29.0 feet, expect widespread flooding of the 
  lowland agricultural lands upstream from Falls City and Maple 
  Grove to the confluence with the Willamette River. Also expect 
  flooding and possible closure of numerous secondary roads near the 
  river.


&&

LAT...LON 4484 12340 4486 12340 4483 12333 4481 12333
      4479 12320 4477 12320 4476 12316 4473 12316
      4475 12323 4477 12323 4480 12336 4482 12336

$$

ORC005-131945-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-210114T0940Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.210113T0948Z.210113T1800Z.210114T0340Z.NO/
548 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Clackamas River at Estacada.
* Until late tonight.
* At 4:45 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 19.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 22.7 feet 
  later today. It will then fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...Above 23.0 feet, expect flooding to begin in the light 
  industrial areas near the confluence of the Clackamas and 
  Willamette Rivers. A trailer court at Carver is threatened at this 
  point. Some access roads are flooded and closed above this level 
  from Estacada downstream to Carver.


&&

LAT...LON 4539 12251 4540 12250 4540 12248 4539 12246
      4539 12242 4538 12239 4530 12235 4529 12236
      4530 12238 4532 12239 4536 12240 4538 12242
      4537 12247 4538 12250

$$

Neuman

813 
WGUS86 KPQR 131945
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
1145 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is expired for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Johnson Creek at Sycamore affecting Multnomah and Clackamas 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oregon...Washington...

  Tualatin River near Dilley affecting Washington County.

  Cowlitz River at Kelso affecting Cowlitz County.

  Luckiamute River near Suver affecting Polk and Benton Counties.

  Marys River near Philomath affecting Benton County.

  Clackamas River at Estacada affecting Clackamas County.

  Clackamas River near Oregon City affecting Clackamas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by 730 PM PST.

&&


ORC005-051-132045-
/O.EXP.KPQR.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-210113T1938Z/
/SYCO3.1.ER.210113T1000Z.210113T1115Z.210113T1338Z.NO/
1145 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Johnson Creek at Sycamore has expired.

* At 5:30 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 5:30 AM PST Wednesday was 11.3 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 3.0 feet early 
  Saturday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 4546 12262 4547 12262 4546 12259 4548 12256
      4548 12251 4549 12248 4549 12245 4548 12245
      4548 12248 4547 12251 4547 12256 4545 12259

$$

ORC067-140345-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-210115T0640Z/
/DLLO3.1.ER.210113T0720Z.210113T1905Z.210114T2140Z.NO/
1145 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tualatin River near Dilley.
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 11:10 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 11:10 AM PST Wednesday was 18.1 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage early 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...Above 17.5 feet, several minor roads begin to flood and 
  may be closed. Widespread lowland agricultural flooding occurs at 
  this and higher stages.


&&

LAT...LON 4544 12314 4548 12313 4551 12309 4551 12308
      4550 12305 4549 12305 4549 12309 4543 12313

$$

WAC015-140345-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-210114T1059Z/
/KELW1.1.ER.210113T1300Z.210114T0000Z.210114T0700Z.NO/
1145 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowlitz River at Kelso.
* Until late tonight.
* At 11:00 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 22.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 11:00 AM PST Wednesday was 22.2 feet.
* Forecast...It will fall below flood stage just after midnight 
  tonight.
* Impact...Above 21.5 feet, flooding of several low lying and 
  secondary roads begins, including the Cowlitz Gardens 
  neighborhood, along with flooding of pasture and lowland upstream 
  of Kelso.


&&

LAT...LON 4621 12292 4621 12290 4620 12290 4619 12289
      4618 12289 4613 12290 4611 12288 4610 12290
      4613 12294

$$

ORC003-140345-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210114T1056Z/
/PHIO3.3.ER.210113T0522Z.210113T1200Z.210114T0456Z.NO/
1145 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Marys River near Philomath.
* Until late tonight.
* At 11:00 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 21.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 11:00 AM PST Wednesday was 21.2 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  evening.
* Impact...Above 21.0 feet, expect major and widespread flooding 
  along the Marys River from Philomath to Corvallis, with numerous 
  homes and farms affected. Several roads will likely be flooded, 
  including Grange Hall Road, 13th Street / Fern Road, Chapel Drive, 
  and Bellfountain Road.


&&

LAT...LON 4453 12339 4454 12338 4453 12331 4454 12329
      4456 12328 4456 12327 4454 12327 4452 12329
      4451 12331

$$

ORC003-053-140345-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210115T1138Z/
/SUVO3.1.ER.210113T0806Z.210114T0000Z.210115T0238Z.NO/
1145 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Friday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Luckiamute River near Suver.
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 11:01 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 30.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 11:01 AM PST Wednesday was 30.8 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 31.0 feet 
  late this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow 
  evening.
* Impact...Above 29.0 feet, expect widespread flooding of the 
  lowland agricultural lands upstream from Falls City and Maple 
  Grove to the confluence with the Willamette River. Also expect 
  flooding and possible closure of numerous secondary roads near the 
  river.


&&

LAT...LON 4484 12340 4486 12340 4483 12333 4481 12333
      4479 12320 4477 12320 4476 12316 4473 12316
      4475 12323 4477 12323 4480 12336 4482 12336

$$

ORC005-140345-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-210114T0344Z/
/ESTO3.1.ER.210113T0948Z.210113T1745Z.210113T2144Z.NO/
1145 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Clackamas River at Estacada.
* Until this evening.
* At 10:45 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 10:45 AM PST Wednesday was 20.9 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...Above 20.0 feet, expect lowland flooding from Estacada 
  several miles downstream to Carver.


&&

LAT...LON 4539 12251 4540 12250 4540 12248 4539 12246
      4539 12242 4538 12239 4530 12235 4529 12236
      4530 12238 4532 12239 4536 12240 4538 12242
      4537 12247 4538 12250

$$

ORC005-140345-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0022.210113T2314Z-210114T0618Z/
/COCO3.1.ER.210113T2314Z.210114T0000Z.210114T0018Z.UU/
1145 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Clackamas River near Oregon City.
* From this afternoon to this evening.
* At 10:45 AM PST Wednesday the stage was 38.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 39.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late 
  this afternoon to a crest of 39.1 feet late this afternoon. It 
  will then fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
* Impact...Above 39.0 feet, expect minor flooding of low areas along 
  the lower Clackamas River, including Clackamette Park, the Oregon 
  City shopping center, and some agricultural land downstream of 
  Carver Bridge.


&&

LAT...LON 4537 12260 4538 12260 4538 12259 4539 12258
      4540 12256 4540 12253 4541 12252 4541 12251
      4540 12250 4539 12251 4539 12256 4538 12257

$$

01

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Portland OR
910 PM PST Tue Jan 12 2021

Updated Hydrology discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...A warm front has pushed inland while a weak cold front
will trail behind. Moderate to heavy rain will persist through
Wednesday with the potential for river, rural, and urban flooding.
Strong winds are expected along the Oregon coast through tonight,
with breezy conditions for the Willamette Valley this evening. Large
surf and high tides will result in hazardous conditions for the
beaches and low-lying coastal areas through Wednesday. Dry weather on
Thursday will allow rivers to recede before the next weaker front
that is expected Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Quite an active day
composed of rain, wind and flooding which will persist through
Wednesday. Synoptically, the pattern is comprised of a broad area of
low pressure with several embedded fronts within the general flow.
The jet stream at 30,000 ft is southwest to northeast oriented with
the main jet streak sitting just north of the forecast area over
north and central Washington. Within the streak wind speeds are
reaching around 120 kt. This jet stream is supporting the surface
fronts which is allowing them to be quite strong and active.

The first front of the series was a quasi-stationary warm front which
produced a significant amount of rain overnight into today. This
front has continued to be a big rain maker although satellite and
radar do show some slight erosion and weakening of rainfall. With the
prolonged period of moderate and sometimes heavy rain, there have
been several urban and rural rivers throughout the area that have
reached bank full or have flooded. Tidal overflow was also a major
concern this afternoon with high tides to nearly 13 ft along the
south Washington coast. As high tide has passed, it should no longer
be a concern but it may take a while for water to recede, especially
due to local rivers being quite full. High winds along the coast are
likely to persist for several more hours but should slowly dissipate
overnight.

The second front, a slightly cooler front, is beginning to drop down
towards the area this evening. This front is rejuvenating the rain
along the coast and will continue to do so overnight. Likely going to
see another bout of heavier rain overnight tonight into early
Wednesday morning. This will especially be true along the coast and
the central Cascades. Hi-res model guidance and the track of the
front shows the bulk of the rain avoiding the northern portions of
the forecast area and the south Washington Cascades...although can't
rule out more rain than what is currently forecast. Either way,
expect additional rainfall accumulations which will likely keep
rivers full.

On Wednesday though a change is in store. The fronts will have both
passed and a weak area of high pressure will build in behind them.
This ridge will allow for a few sun breaks and the rain will taper
off through the early afternoon. this will be the trend through
Thursday as well. Southwesterly flow will dominate the area Wednesday
night through Thursday which will usher in dry and warmer air from
the CONUS southwest. Temperatures around 5000 ft will range from 5-9C
so expecting daytime temperatures to be slightly warmer. The break
will be much needed as another front will advance over the area very
early Friday.	-Muessle

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night...Another front is expected
to move onshore Thursday evening but it will be a bit weaker than the
ones experienced earlier in the week. Recent model runs are
suggesting a weak atmospheric river event with IVT values near 250
kg/ms. As there is still quite a bit of time between now and this
event, not hanging a hat on an atmospheric river forecast. There is
also significantly less upper level support as the jet stream is much
weaker and is falling apart just before reaching the area. While
there is ample moisture available to this system, the lack of
dynamics means that there will need to be some sort of change in
order to tap into it, and create the heavier rain. The front
should move through the area rather quickly and over by Friday
afternoon with rainfall totals likely remaining below an inch even
across the terrain favored areas. Snow levels will be at or above
5000 feet and do not anticipate much if any snow from this front.
High pressure rebuilds Friday night and Saturday for a brief period
of dry weather in the wake of this front. Models are in good
agreement on another non impressive front Saturday night through
Sunday followed by dry weather next Monday. -Muessle/TJ

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The next round of moderate to heavy rainfall is
currently ongoing Tuesday evening with the main frontal band surging
along the Oregon/Washington coast. As it pushes inland expect max
hourly rainfall rates to increase during a 2-3 hour period. Mainstem
rivers currently above flood stage include the Grays River near
Rosburg, Wilson River near Tillamook, and Siuslaw River near
Mapleton. The Grays and Wilson Rivers have already crested but are
not expected to fall below flood stage until Wednesday morning.
Other coastal and inland rivers at bankfull that are expected to rise
above minor flood stage include the Cowlitz River at Kelso, Nehalem
River at Foss, Siletz River at Siletz, Tualatin River near Dilley,
Marys River near Philomath, Luckiamute River near Suver, as well as
the Clackamas River near Estacada.

Besides Mainstem rivers, small streams and creeks will also rise,
and possibly flood tonight. Minor urban flooding in poorly drained
areas is also possible. Will continue the Flood Watch for the same
areas to account for all of the flooding concerns. The saturated
soils will also likely lead to land slides. /DDH

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread MVFR conditions, occasionally dipping into
IFR category especially along the coast, will continue with periods
of rain through the evening ahead of a cold front. A few areas in
the Willamette Valley will continue to see areas of VFR conditions
as well. A cold front moving southeast across the region tonight
will allow the rain to taper off behind the front after 03Z-09Z.
Expect gusty southerly winds to temporarily pick up as the front
moves through between 02Z and 08Z along the coast, and from 05Z-09Z
inland. MVFR ceilings will still be widespread behind the front
after 07Z-09Z, but improvement to VFR category can be expected
Wednesday, as early as 09-12Z on the north coast, to as late as 18
to 22Z in the South Willamette Valley.

For detailed regional Pac NW weather information, go online to:
http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR conditions, occasionally IFR conditions
can be expected to continue through about 09Z tonight. Gusty south
winds may pick up temporarily ahead of a cold front between 05Z and
09Z. Behind the front rain will taper off, but it is likely MVFR
ceilings continue into the morning Wednesday, before VFR conditions
return after 17Z-20Z.
&&

.MARINE...A westerly swell continues tonight and through Wednesday,
with a slow decrease in heights and periods expected. Southerly
Gales will continue through the evening ahead of a southeast moving
cold front, with a few storm force gusts still likely south of Cape
Shoalwater. As the cold front moves through during the evening,
winds will switch around to the west and decrease to under 30 kt.
Steep wind driven seas out of the south will continue as a fresh
swell, decreasing late tonight and Wednesday. Combined seas from the
west and southerly swells were running 20 to 24 ft Tuesday
afternoon, and should begin to drop under 20 ft late tonight.

As high pressure moves in behind the front Wednesday, winds and seas
will continue to diminish, likely below 20 kt by Wednesday afternoon
and below 15 ft by Wednesday evening.

A much weaker cold front is expected to move into the waters
Thursday night bringing small craft advisory level winds, followed
by another long period westerly swell train arriving Friday and
building seas back into the range of 15 to 20 ft late Friday
and Friday night.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Cascade Foothills in
     Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-Central Coast Range of
     Western Oregon-Central Columbia River Gorge-Central Oregon
     Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest
     Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-North
     Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-Northern
     Oregon Cascades-South Willamette Valley-Western Columbia
     River Gorge.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Central
     Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Central
     Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

     High Wind Warning until 2 AM PST Wednesday for Central Oregon
     Coast.

     High Wind Warning until midnight PST tonight for North Oregon
     Coast.

WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Central Columbia
     River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz
     County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington
     Cascades-South Washington Coast-Western Columbia River
     Gorge-Willapa Hills.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for South
     Washington Coast.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for South
     Washington Coast.

PZ...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for coastal waters
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60
     NM.Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Wednesday for Columbia
     River Bar.

     Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal waters
     from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 NM.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
510 PM PST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW HILLSBORO         45.49N 122.96W
01/12/2021  M1.40 INCH       WASHINGTON         OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
535 PM PST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE CAMAS             45.60N 122.38W
01/12/2021  M1.41 INCH       CLARK              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
928 PM PST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E MAPLETON            44.03N 123.83W
01/12/2021  M1.25 INCH       LANE               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY WINDY AS WELL.

&&