Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

Approaching cold front now on doorstep of FA, setting off active
convection, strong-severe, across FA along/ahead of its approach.
There will continue to be a marginal to slight risk of severe as
the front approaches, with low topped supercells possible. With
freezing level near -8C and -20C level roughly 10K higher, large
hail also possible along with damaging wind gusts. Should be
short-lived during peak heating/tied to front.

Afterward, drier dew points sweep in, with potentially some 30s
dew points forecast thru tmrw. These will begin moderating again
by tmrw night as a warm frontal boundary returns to the area,
bringing the next chance of rain.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

The wet weekend signal is still there, but storm total qpf amounts
appear to be improving, as the heaviest qpf axis shifts north and
west of the FA. Still, with the warm front's lift across the area
Saturday, then warm sectoring Saturday night, ahead of the
approaching cold front Sunday (passage Sunday night), anticipate
gradual re-moistening/destabilizing environ with high pops
returning, including thunder chances. By the end of the weekend,
storm total average qpf in the 1 to 2 inch range seems likely.

Behind the cold fropa, a cooler than climo norm airmass settles
across the FA next week. 60s for highs and 40s for lows can be
expected each day. While spotty rain chances cannot be completely
ruled out any day, an early week drier, versus mid week wetter,
approach appears the most likely scenario given the synoptic scale
evolution from quasi zonal (early) to more amplified troffing
(mid-late) week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

Lower bases/cigs and potential thunderstorms with vsby
restrictions are anticipated at terminals, at least in vicinity
fashion if not categorical, thru late pm hours. A cold front's
passage will then end restrictions associated with frontal
convection, and improve skies overnight. Winds will shift to gusty
northwest behind the front, then wane as higher pressure moves
in/takes over, returning all Visual Flight Rules for the latter
half of the flight forecast package.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

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