Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
339 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

Mid level short wave energy will rotate southeast into the mid MS
River Valley today. An associated weak surface front will also
move southeast and approach the lower OH River Valley by early
this afternoon. Though surface dew points are only expected to
make it up to near 50 or the lower 50s ahead of the front, enough
marginal instability (SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) and moisture should
be available for shower/thunderstorm development ahead of the
front during the heat of the day. This, along with steep mid level
lapse rates and moderate deep layer shear could lead to a few
stronger to marginally severe storms across the region, where
latest SPC Day 1 maintains a marginal risk for severe storms.

Drier air will move in behind the front tonight/Friday as surface
high pressure builds southeast into the lower MS River Valley.
However, the rain-free conditions may be fairly brief. A warm
front will develop out to the east of a surface low over the
western high Plains on Saturday, and lift north through the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Though this
could lead to an increase in shower coverage, esp Saturday
afternoon/evening, it does not appear to be a wash at this time,
as there seems to be little if any mid/upper level support. In
fact, rainfall amounts with the frontal passage are now expected
to average around a quarter inch or less at most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

The extended forecast period begins with progressive, but
increasingly sheared low/middle level shortwave moving over
northwest Missouri with a corresponding low over south central
Missouri around the noon hour on Sunday.

The timing and positioning of positive vorticity lobes rotating
around the base of the low amplitude shortwave are most similar in
the ECMWF and Canadian deterministic and ensemble guidance on
Sunday, suggesting a more disorganized and episodic convective
development during the day. This will likely inhibit consistent
coverage of heavy rainfall focusing the greater precipitation
chances south of the warm front (generally located north of the WFO
PAH forecast area). The best potential for any organized convective
development on Sunday will likely be during the morning hours over
foothills region of southeast Missouri where 0-1km/0-3km CAPE values
could peak as high as 1400 j2/kg2, before being expended further
east across the WFO PAH forecast area.

There is a greater preference toward the ECMWF (and to a lesser
degree, the Canadian) Ensemble solutions on the progressive nature
of this system through the WFO PAH forecast Sunday night. Although
the NBM initialization appears to high with PoPs Sunday night, kept
at least low PoPs in place for collaborative reason with surrounding
NWS offices. The NBM QPF forecast for the same time period appears
reasonable (little no measurable QPF).

Forecast confidence for the occurrence of PoPs and Weather goes down
significantly from Monday night through Wednesday night, as model
guidance from the ECMWF/Canadian/GFS ensembles have subtle changes
in the position of the mean zonal flow (directly impacting the WFO
PAH forecast area, and more amplified flow further north.  This
split flow scenario does not warrant a much more than slight/chance
PoPs at the most. Attempted to lower PoPs from Tuesday through
Wednesday, reflecting lesser coverage within collaboration limits.
Depending on the evolution of the western U.S. trough Sunday, rain
chances could be curbed even further.

NBM temperature initialization appears reasonable in the extended
forecast period, but dewpoints could be closer to the ECMWF guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Wed May 5 2021

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period.
Light and variable winds tonight will become southwesterly around
10 knots ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead
of this front during the late morning and into the afternoon.
Winds could be strong and gusty in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
Winds will shift to the west/northwest during the afternoon in the
wake of the front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RJP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 AM CDT THU MAY 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     HAIL             1 W VAN BUREN           37.01N 91.03W
05/06/2021  M0.75 INCH       CARTER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL JUST WEST OF VAN BUREN,
            NORTH OF EASTWOOD. RELAYED BY TRAINED
            SPOTTER THRU THE CARTER COUNTY EM.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1147 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

ILZ084-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>110-061745-
Jackson IL-Butler MO-Carter MO-Stoddard MO-Wayne MO-Bollinger MO-
Cape Girardeau MO-Perry MO-Ripley MO-
1147 AM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON... BOLLINGER...EASTERN
CARTER...PERRY...RIPLEY...WAYNE...STODDARD...BUTLER AND CAPE
GIRARDEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1145 AM CDT, trained weather spotters reported strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles west of
Fredericktown to 8 miles northwest of Doniphan. Dime size hail was
reported in Carter County. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Poplar Bluff, Perryville, Doniphan, Piedmont, Marble Hill, Advance,
Ellsinore, Altenburg, Williamsville, Fisk, Dudley and Wappapello.

LAT...LON 3705 9084 3705 9078 3714 9078 3717 9074
      3727 9072 3727 9055 3732 9055 3732 9014
      3764 9015 3769 9010 3773 8951 3663 9011
      3661 9017 3650 9022 3650 9071 3671 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 303DEG 43KT 3754 9042 3672 9090

York

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1226 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

ILZ075-076-080-081-084-MOZ076-061815-
Perry IL-Franklin IL-Jackson IL-Jefferson IL-Wayne IL-Perry MO-
1226 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY...WAYNE...
JEFFERSON...JACKSON...FRANKLIN AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Nashville Illinois to near St.
Mary Missouri. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Perryville, Murphysboro, Du Quoin, Pinckneyville,
Christopher, Rend Lake Area, and Sesser.

LAT...LON 3845 8851 3766 8940 3776 9004 3787 8994
      3787 8990 3791 8985 3788 8980 3785 8979
      3785 8974 3780 8968 3782 8968 3796 8959
      3822 8959 3821 8915 3846 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 275DEG 32KT 3841 8933 3782 8997

York

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1242 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

MOZ086-100-107>110-061830-
Butler MO-Carter MO-Stoddard MO-Wayne MO-Bollinger MO-Ripley MO-
1242 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOLLINGER...CARTER...
RIPLEY...WAYNE...STODDARD AND BUTLER COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Piedmont to near Alton.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Poplar Bluff, Dexter, Doniphan, Piedmont, Marble Hill, Van Buren,
Greenville, Lake Wappapello State Park, and Ellsinore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
southeastern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3710 9102 3710 9096 3705 9096 3705 9078
      3727 9073 3727 9055 3732 9055 3731 9015
      3757 9015 3758 8995 3663 9000 3663 9015
      3650 9022 3651 9101
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 287DEG 33KT 3729 9055 3665 9141

York