Flood Watch 2, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

652 
WGUS63 KPAH 111931
FFAPAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Paducah KY
131 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-085>088-KYZ004-005-007-010-013>016-
018>020-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-121100-
/O.CON.KPAH.FA.A.0002.210311T2100Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-
Spencer-Ballard-McCracken-Livingston-Crittenden-Caldwell-Union KY-
Webster-Hopkins-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Perry MO-Bollinger-
Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-
Including the cities of Mount Vernon, Fairfield, Albion, 
Mount Carmel, Pinckneyville, West Frankfort, McLeansboro, Carmi, 
Carbondale, Murphysboro, Herrin, Harrisburg, Shawneetown, 
Jonesboro, Vienna, Golconda, Elizabethtown, Cairo, Mound City, 
Metropolis, Fort Branch, Poseyville, Evansville, Boonville, 
Rockport, Wickliffe, Paducah, Smithland, Marion, Princeton, 
Morganfield, Dixon, Madisonville, Henderson, Owensboro, Calhoun, 
Perryville, Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Piedmont, 
Van Buren, Doniphan, Poplar Bluff, Bloomfield, and Sikeston
131 PM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western
  Kentucky, and southeast Missouri

* Through Saturday afternoon

* Several rounds of rain, heavy at times, are forecast from late 
  this afternoon through Saturday. A cold front will bring the 
  first round of showers and scattered thunderstorms late this 
  afternoon and tonight as it pushes through the area. Another 
  round or two of heavy rainfall is expected from Friday into 
  Saturday as waves of energy stream along and north of the 
  frontal boundary stalled to our south. Through Saturday, 
  widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are forecast, and 
  locally higher amounts are possible. 

* Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and into tonight may 
  bring rain heavy enough to result in localized flash flooding. 
  Repeat rounds of rain through Saturday will saturate soils and 
  cause local creeks and streams to rise, resulting in more 
  widespread flooding potential. 

* In addition, some main stem rivers in the area are currently in
  flood. Additional heavy rainfall could exacerbate or prolong
  this ongoing river flooding.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop.

&&

$$

884 
WGUS63 KPAH 121005
FFAPAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Paducah KY
405 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-085>088-KYZ004-005-007-010-013>016-018>020-
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-122215-
/O.CON.KPAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-White-
Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-
Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-
Ballard-McCracken-Livingston-Crittenden-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-
Hopkins-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-
Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-
Including the cities of Murphysboro, Jackson, McLeansboro, Calhoun, 
Fairfield, Dixon, Shawneetown, Carbondale, Fort Branch, Piedmont, 
Vienna, Perryville, Metropolis, Evansville, Poseyville, Princeton, 
Van Buren, Herrin, Harrisburg, Mound City, Carmi, Jonesboro, 
Henderson, Cape Girardeau, Mount Vernon, Poplar Bluff, Doniphan, 
Paducah, Smithland, West Frankfort, Boonville, Mount Carmel, Albion, 
Golconda, Pinckneyville, Cairo, Sikeston, Bloomfield, Morganfield, 
Owensboro, Marion, Wickliffe, Rockport, Marble Hill, Elizabethtown, 
and Madisonville
405 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southern Illinois...southwest Indiana...western 
  Kentucky and southeast Missouri, including the following areas, in 
  southern Illinois, Alexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, 
  Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Massac, Perry IL, 
  Pope, Pulaski, Saline, Union, Wabash, Wayne IL, White and 
  Williamson. In southwest Indiana, Gibson, Posey, Spencer, 
  Vanderburgh and Warrick. In western Kentucky, Ballard, Caldwell, 
  Crittenden, Daviess, Henderson, Hopkins, Livingston, McCracken, 
  McLean, Union KY and Webster. In southeast Missouri, Bollinger, 
  Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry MO, Ripley, Scott, Stoddard 
  and Wayne MO.

* Through Saturday afternoon

* A couple more rounds of rain, heavy at times, are forecast through 
  Saturday morning. The heaviest rain is expected to fall tonight 
  into Saturday morning across southeast Missouri, far southern 
  Illinois, and into western Kentucky as waves of energy stream 
  along and north of a stalled frontal boundary. Through Saturday, 
  additional rainfall amounts in the watch area of 1 to 2 inches are 
  forecast, with locally higher amounts possible.

* Repeat rounds of rain through Saturday morning will saturate soils 
  and cause local creeks and streams to rise, resulting in the 
  potential for flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

RJP

682 
WGUS63 KPAH 121952
FFAPAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Paducah KY
152 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

ILZ075>078-080>083-086-087-INZ081-085>088-KYZ014>016-018>020-122100-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-White-
Saline-Gallatin-Gibson-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-Union KY-
Webster-Hopkins-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Including the cities of Albion, Madisonville, Pinckneyville, 
Morganfield, McLeansboro, Poseyville, West Frankfort, Calhoun, 
Fairfield, Harrisburg, Fort Branch, Owensboro, Carmi, Rockport, 
Boonville, Shawneetown, Mount Carmel, Evansville, Mount Vernon, 
Henderson, and Dixon
152 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of southern Illinois...southwest 
Indiana and western Kentucky, has been cancelled. The area cancelled 
is generally north of a line extending from Du Quoin, Illinois to 
Greenville, Kentucky.

The threat of widespread heavy rainfall has diminished. 

$$

ILZ084-085-088>094-KYZ004-005-007-010-013-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-
130400-
/O.CON.KPAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jackson-Williamson-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-
Massac-Ballard-McCracken-Livingston-Crittenden-Caldwell-Perry MO-
Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-
Scott-
Including the cities of Murphysboro, Jackson, Carbondale, Piedmont, 
Vienna, Perryville, Metropolis, Paducah, Van Buren, Herrin, Mound 
City, Jonesboro, Poplar Bluff, Doniphan, Princeton, Smithland, 
Golconda, Cairo, Sikeston, Bloomfield, Marion, Wickliffe, Cape 
Girardeau, Marble Hill, and Elizabethtown
152 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southern Illinois...western Kentucky and southeast 
  Missouri, including the following areas, in southern Illinois, 
  Alexander, Hardin, Jackson, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski, Union 
  and Williamson. In western Kentucky, Ballard, Caldwell, 
  Crittenden, Livingston and McCracken. In southeast Missouri, 
  Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry MO, Ripley, 
  Scott, Stoddard and Wayne MO.

* Through Saturday afternoon

* Another round of rain, possibly heavy at times, is forecast to 
  spread across the area tonight through Saturday morning. This area 
  of heaviest rainfall will be generally south of a Perryville, 
  Illinois to Princeton, Kentucky line. Additional rainfall amounts 
  in the watch area of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, with locally 
  higher amounts possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

GREG

440 
WGUS63 KPAH 130404
FFAPAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1004 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

ILZ084-085-088>094-KYZ004-005-007-010-013-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-
131000-
/O.CON.KPAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jackson-Williamson-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-
Massac-Ballard-McCracken-Livingston-Crittenden-Caldwell-Perry MO-
Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-
Scott-
Including the cities of Murphysboro, Jackson, Carbondale, Piedmont, 
Vienna, Perryville, Metropolis, Paducah, Van Buren, Herrin, Mound 
City, Jonesboro, Poplar Bluff, Doniphan, Princeton, Smithland, 
Golconda, Cairo, Sikeston, Bloomfield, Marion, Wickliffe, Cape 
Girardeau, Marble Hill, and Elizabethtown
1004 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southern Illinois...western Kentucky and southeast 
  Missouri, including the following areas, in southern Illinois, 
  Alexander, Hardin, Jackson, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski, Union 
  and Williamson. In western Kentucky, Ballard, Caldwell, 
  Crittenden, Livingston and McCracken. In southeast Missouri, 
  Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry MO, Ripley, 
  Scott, Stoddard and Wayne MO.

* Through Saturday afternoon

* Another round of rain, possibly heavy at times, will spread across 
  the area tonight through Saturday morning. This area of heaviest 
  rainfall will be generally south of a Perryville, Missouri, to 
  Princeton, Kentucky line. Additional rainfall amounts in the watch 
  area of 1 to 3 inches are forecast, with locally higher amounts 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

DWS

258 
WGUS63 KPAH 130657
FFAPAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1257 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

ILZ084-085-089>091-KYZ007-010-013-130800-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jackson-Williamson-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Livingston-Crittenden-
Caldwell-
Including the cities of Murphysboro, Princeton, Smithland, Herrin, 
Golconda, Marion, Carbondale, Elizabethtown, and Vienna
1257 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of southern Illinois and western 
Kentucky, including the following areas, in southern Illinois, 
Hardin, Jackson, Johnson, Pope and Williamson. In western Kentucky, 
Caldwell, Crittenden and Livingston has been cancelled.

$$

ILZ088-092>094-KYZ004-005-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-131500-
/O.CON.KPAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Union-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Ballard-McCracken-Perry MO-Bollinger-
Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-
Including the cities of Perryville, Doniphan, Metropolis, Jackson, 
Paducah, Cairo, Sikeston, Marble Hill, Van Buren, Bloomfield, Mound 
City, Wickliffe, Cape Girardeau, Jonesboro, Piedmont, and Poplar 
Bluff
1257 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southern Illinois...western Kentucky and southeast 
  Missouri, including the following areas, in southern Illinois, 
  Alexander, Massac, Pulaski and Union. In western Kentucky, Ballard 
  and McCracken. In southeast Missouri, Bollinger, Butler, Cape 
  Girardeau, Carter, Perry MO, Ripley, Scott, Stoddard and Wayne MO.

* Through this afternoon

* Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches may result in flooding across 
  the Watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings.

&&

$$

08

952 
WGUS63 KPAH 131241
FFAPAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Paducah KY
641 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

ILZ088-092>094-KYZ004-005-131345-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Union-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Ballard-McCracken-
Including the cities of Metropolis, Paducah, Cairo, Mound City, 
Wickliffe, and Jonesboro
641 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of southern Illinois and western 
Kentucky, including the following areas, in southern Illinois, 
Alexander, Massac, Pulaski and Union. In western Kentucky, Ballard 
and McCracken has been cancelled.

$$

MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-132045-
/O.CON.KPAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-
Stoddard-Scott-
Including the cities of Perryville, Doniphan, Jackson, Cape 
Girardeau, Sikeston, Marble Hill, Van Buren, Bloomfield, Poplar 
Bluff, and Piedmont
641 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Missouri, including the following areas, 
  Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry MO, Ripley, 
  Scott, Stoddard and Wayne MO.

* Until 6 PM CST this evening

* Rain will continue this morning. Some isolated minor flooding 
  cannot be ruled out given saturated grounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

08

485 
WGUS63 KPAH 131645
FFAPAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1045 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-131745-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210314T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-
Stoddard-Scott-
Including the cities of Perryville, Doniphan, Jackson, Cape 
Girardeau, Sikeston, Marble Hill, Van Buren, Bloomfield, Poplar 
Bluff, and Piedmont
1045 AM CST Sat Mar 13 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Missouri, including the 
following areas, Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry 
MO, Ripley, Scott, Stoddard and Wayne MO has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

GREG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
346 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

The primary forecast concerns through the end of the week include
the potential for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon, in
addition to the potential for heavy rain and flooding from late
this afternoon through Saturday. Forecast confidence in the
overall synoptic pattern through the period is relatively high,
but continued variability in frontal position and mesoscale
influences temper that confidence to some extent.

The upper level pattern through the end of the week will be
influenced by an upper level ridge from the Gulf of Mexico into
the Southeast, with an upper low forecast to slowly churn east
from California into the Four Corners region of the southwestern
U.S. by Saturday. The resultant atmospheric river of increasing
Gulf and Pacific moisture combined with waves of energy streaming
northeast from the low within the southwesterly flow aloft will
result in occasional showers across the region through Saturday.

At the same time, a cold front currently draped from low pressure
over Lake Superior southwest across Illinois and Missouri is
forecast to pass through the forecast area late this afternoon and
tonight, stalling just south of the region by Friday night. The
atmosphere is forecast to become marginally unstable this
afternoon across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, which
should allow for the development of thunderstorms. In addition,
enough deep layer bulk shear exists for storm organization. As a
result, localized strong to severe storms are possible in about a
4 hour window from about 2 PM until 6 PM this afternoon across
much of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois and as far east
as the Wabash River Valley. This is an area outlooked by SPC in a
marginal risk for severe weather, with primary concerns of locally
damaging wind gusts.

Both the NAEFS and ECENS ensembles indicate a prolonged period of
anomalously high integrated water vapor transport, specific
humidity, and precipitable water values in association with that
atmospheric river of moisture from late today into Saturday. As a
result, periods of heavy rain are possible, which may eventually
lead to at least some localized flooding. By Saturday afternoon,
model guidance indicates that storm total precipitation amounts
could range from less than an inch near the Tennessee border to
as high as 2 to 3 inches in portions of southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois. The precipitation will occur in waves, the
first with the cold frontal passage from late this afternoon into
tonight. That could last well into Friday, followed by another
round of heavy rain from late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Given the prospect for repeat heavy rain in some locations, will
issue a Flood Watch starting at 3 PM this afternoon and running
through 6 PM Saturday. The watch generally covers areas along and
north of a line from roughly Poplar Bluff Missouri to Paducah and
Madisonville Kentucky.

Highs today are forecast to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, then
cool back to near 60 on Friday and into the 50s on Saturday with
the region on the north side of the front. Lows should cool from
the upper 40s and lower 50s tonight back into the 40s area wide by
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

While Saturday morning continues to look wet, the trend will be for
the area to dry out as we head into Saturday night. An upper level
ridge will develop late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, as a
large upper level low moves out of the four corners region and into
the eastern Rockies. While PoPs will not be zero, the overall
coverage of precipitation should decrease Saturday evening and into
the overnight hours.

On Sunday, we continue to try and hone in on the best chances for
our next round of precipitation, as the aforementioned upper level
low continues to slowly migrate east into the central Plains states.
It seems like the deterministic GFS has slowed down a bit but is
still the fastest in bringing our next round of rain through the
area. The latest consensus is that the majority of our area should
be fairly dry Sunday morning, with any rain chances being favored in
the far north and far western areas, closer to the deeper moisture.

As we head into Sunday afternoon, a large swath of showers will
begin moving west to east into southeast Missouri. How fast this
area of activity moves through is still in question. The GFS blasts
it west to east during the Sunday evening and overnight time period,
with the entire area dry by 12Z Monday. The ECMWF and Canadian are
slower and indicate the bulk of the activity moving through Sunday
night into Monday morning.

Many of the GFS ensemble members indicate a bit slower of a
solution, closer to what the operational ECMWF is suggesting. Will
center the highest PoPs on Sunday afternoon out west and then area
wide for the Sunday night period, showing them tapering off from
west to east early Monday. There will continue to be fine tuning
done with regards to these PoPs as the corridor of highest rain
chances narrows. QPF does not look too overwhelming with most areas
picking up 0.25 to 0.75 inches. The 24 hr total QPF of greater than
an inch probabilities from the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles are very
low. However, PWs are fairly high so we could see some localized
areas receiving a bit more rain than forecast. The speed at which
the activity will move through will make a difference as well.

Given that we never become warm sectored since the boundary stays to
our south, not expecting much in the way of thunderstorms or severe
weather at this time. Even the best elevated instability stays to
our south. However, gradient winds will definitely be picking up
throughout the day on Sunday and into Sunday evening as this low
approaches.

While there will be a period where our area becomes dry slotted, we
will still have to deal with the eventual passage of the surface low
across our area, which may lead to additional shower development on
Monday and possibly into early Monday evening. By Tuesday, any
chances for rain will be out of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Lower MVFR ceilings are expected to develop throughout the area
quickly near 12Z, and some drizzle or showers will be possible. As
a cold front approaches, showers will become more numerous near
KMVN in the afternoon. The showers may reach KCGI and KEVV by 00Z,
but the other sites should mostly be impacted in the evening. IFR
ceilings cannot be ruled out in the evening over southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. South winds will remain strong
with gusts to 25kts or more possible until the front approaches
later Thursday. The wind shift will likely occur at all sites in
the evening. TSRA will be possible initially in the KMVN area
through the afternoon and farther south mostly into the evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch from 3 PM CST this afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch from 3 PM CST this afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.

IN...Flood Watch from 3 PM CST this afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for INZ081-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch from 3 PM CST this afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for KYZ004-005-007-010-013>016-018>020.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
353 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-112200-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
353 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Southerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are forecast this afternoon.
Some gusts may reach 40 mph or slightly higher across portions of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Despite an increase in humidity, the combination of strong gusty
winds and dry fuels will result in elevated fire potential.

Minor to moderate flooding will continue on several areas rivers.
Please refer to the River Flood Warnings and Statements for
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Southerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are forecast again on
Thursday.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. A few stronger storms with gusty winds cannot
be ruled out.

Heavy rain is forecast from late Thursday afternoon through
Friday, with a chance of thunderstorms contributing to the heavy
rain potential. As a result, there is a slight risk for localized
flooding issues to develop by Friday.

Yet another round of heavy rain will be possible Friday night into
Saturday, especially over portions of southeast Missouri.

Finally, there is the potential for a few strong to locally
severe storms over parts of Southeast Missouri late afternoon or
evening on Sunday. At this time, damaging winds may be the
greatest concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.