Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
225 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, UPPER AIR...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue into the evening
across most of the area as a cold front moves into minimally-
capped environment (per 18Z special upper air sounding). The
ongoing storms could push out an outflow boundary or two, which
could lead to slight enhancement of a tornado threat if any storms
can form along it, as winds ahead of the boundary could be backed
slightly. Currently, as storms form along the aforementioned cold
front later this afternoon, there may be a brief window for some
discrete storms. The deep-layer shear vector being mostly
parallel to the boundary will foster storm conglomeration shortly
after initiation, and eventually forming into a line that will
move through west-central and central OK. The main threats still
appear to be damaging winds in excess of 80mph and hail up to the
size of baseballs, as SPC mesoanalysis suggests there is at least
MLCAPE values upwards of at least 3000 J/kg across the area. With
numerous storms producing heavy rain rates across areas with
already moist soils, flooding and flash flooding could be possible
across central OK into northern and northeast OK.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Over the weekend mid-level heights will gradually increase as an
approaching mid-level ridge moves into the area. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible on Sunday as a shortwave trough
traverses the area and attendant upslope flow along the Rockies.
Another shortwave should move through on Monday morning, bringing
with it additional chances for showers and storms. A longwave
trough will move in by Tuesday morning and an associated cold
front will bring in showers and storms across the area. Northerly
surface flow should persist through much of the long term, with
slight chances for showers and storms. High temperatures should
stay in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area throughout
the period.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the period. The first round of storms will start around
17Z and will initiate in western OK, and move towards the east
into central OK. The next round will be later this afternoon
associated with a cold front that will sweep through the area.
These storms will move from the north to the south. Otherwise,
some MVFR ceilings are possible through the period, along with a
wind shift associated with the cold front. Some sites could see
some IFR ceilings associated with the aforementioned
thunderstorms.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned later this evening if time permits..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  72  54  72 /  90   0  10  10
Hobart OK         60  75  56  74 /  70  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  65  77  60  76 /  80  30  30  20
Gage OK           53  72  53  73 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     53  72  50  72 /  50   0   0   0
Durant OK         66  80  59  75 /  90  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for OKZ008-012-013-018>020-
     024>031.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1141 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening across most of Oklahoma into parts of
western north Texas. Two rounds of storms are possible this
afternoon. The first round is likely to start around the early
afternoon and move from western OK into central OK. Later in the
afternoon, storms will fire along a cold front in northern OK and
move south across the area. Large hail up to the size of baseballs
and damaging winds up to 80 mph will be the main threats, though
during the early evening there will also be a low tornado risk.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Localized heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible late on
Thursday, mainly across central and southern Oklahoma and north
Texas.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
Oklahoma and western north Texas should prepare for severe
weather operations this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Friday and Saturday will see thunderstorm chances across mainly
southern Oklahoma and north Texas. More widespread chances for
showers and storms will return Sunday through Wednesday of next
week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>