Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
614 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

The cloud cover will continue a breaking trend throughout the rest
of the afternoon, with the return of periodic sunshine throughout
most of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Dry conditions are
expected to continue into Wednesday evening. During the evening
hours, storms will likely develop along a dryline in the
Oklahoma/Texas panhandles and begin to head towards northern and
western Oklahoma overnight. Initially while in the panhandles these
storms will likely be severe with ample instability and shear in
place, however their intensity will decrease as they move eastward
into less favorable conditions overnight. These storms may maintain
their intensity long enough to impact parts of western and northern
Oklahoma through Thursday morning.

On Thursday, an upper level trough begins digging southward through
the central Plains, which will provide upper level support for
storms later in the day. Overcast skies will return through most of
the day on Thursday, as a surface cold front begins to move
southeast through Kansas and arrive in far northwestern Oklahoma in
the late afternoon.

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Severe chances return to most of Oklahoma and western north Texas
Thursday evening as the cold front moves through the region. Along
with the upper level trough digging through the region, abundant
moisture (Precipitable water > 1.5 inches), CAPE (widespread MUCAPE
> 3000 J/kg), and wind shear (widespread 0-6km > 50kts) will provide
more than enough support for severe weather. Initial storms that
develop will likely develop into discrete supercells, however these
storms will quickly become bow and line segments 1-2 hours after
initiation. Large to significant hail will be the primary concern
initially with these storms, with damaging winds becoming an
increasing concern as the storms develop into line later in the
evening. A little more uncertainty lies with the tornado potential,
in particular the presence of low level shear heading into the
event. Outflow boundaries in the area, ejected from storms in Kansas
earlier in the day, will provide an enhancement in low level shear
throughout the event, and these boundary trends/positions will need
to be monitored closely for increases in severe/tornado potential.

Friday onward, precipitation chances continue. An additional upper
level shortwave move through the region Friday, with precipitation
developing along residual boundaries. An upper level ridge moves
through Saturday into Sunday, which will reduce the precipitation
chances, however >1" precipitable water values will still remain in
the region, resulting in lingering precipitation chances. Monday
onward, a longwave trough develops over the central Plains, and will
result in persistent rainfall chances through next week.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

VFR conditions will once again fall into MVFR and possible IFR
overnight into Thursday morning. Should see most rise back to VFR
by Thursday afternoon. Chance for some storms to impact WWR/CSM
this evening. By Thursday afternoon, a cold front will drop south
through northern Oklahoma with an associated wind shift as well as
storm development along this boundary that will impact WWR/PNC/SWO
late in the forecast.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 12Z Thursday, May 27..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  85  61  75 /  20  50  90  30
Hobart OK         68  88  60  76 /  30  40  70  40
Wichita Falls TX  72  90  65  79 /  10  20  70  50
Gage OK           65  87  54  74 /  30  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     69  82  55  73 /  30  60  60  10
Durant OK         71  87  67  80 /  10  10  80  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...30

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
727 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

OKZ004-270100-
Harper OK-
727 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Harper County Until 800
PM CDT...

AT 725 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
Slapout, moving east at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of ping pong balls...
Wind gusts to 60 MPH...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the situation closely. Be ready to act quickly if a warning
is issued or if storms threaten you.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9981 3662 9968 3662 10000 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 255DEG 29KT 3672 10023

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
745 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

OKZ004-270115-
Harper OK-
745 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Harper County Until 815
PM CDT...

AT 744 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Laverne, moving
east at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3693 9959 3661 9956 3660 10000 3685 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 254DEG 34KT 3673 9994

30