Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
321 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The convection seen on radar now from near Weatherford up through Watonga
and Enid is associated with convergence along the surface trough. The
convection is shallow, and winds are actually quite weak through 700-mb at
the moment, so they almost have a summer-like appearance in behavior (not
much motion). Mid-level lapse rates are fairly weak and without a decent
amount of surface heating it would be hard for this convection to attain
enough depth to become more organized and much of a concern for severe.
But, a landspout or two cannot be ruled out as vertical vorticity along
the boundary is stretched. Usually, for a more productive landspout day
you would want steeper low level lapse rates, however. Well continue to
monitor trends on this.

Later today, if enough surface based heating can occur, deeper more intense
convection could evolve along this axis, particularly along its southern
flanks into southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. If this happens,
effective shear would be more than supportive of organized storms including
supercells with mainly a hail/wind threat. But, stronger forcing/cooling
aloft will probably hold mostly west of this surface boundary having limited
influence into the evening. An alternate and probably more likely scenario
is for storms to develop and organized in the Lubbock forecast area closer
to the trough and along the western extent of instability, and then move
into our southwest by late afternoon or evening. The best low-level shear
for a tornado concern should be relegated to the southeast where the
environment is most stable.

Due to recent heavy rains and saturated ground, any additional heavy rain
from the above scenario later today/tonight could be problematic. It wont
take much. Flooding danger is likely the primary life safety concern for
this event.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

A very moist atmosphere will support numerous showers and
thunderstorms through tonight. Providing support for convection is
an upper-level low centered over southwest New Mexico. This low
will drift slowly over Chihuahua tonight through Saturday.
Meanwhile, a cold front, located approximately from Ponca City to
Vernon, will pass southeast through the remainder of our forecast
area tonight.

This progression of weather features will result in a continued
risk of heavy rain extending from a few counties behind the front
through the entire area ahead of the front. This heavy rain risk
will end slowly from northwest to southeast, more or less with
the progress of the surface front. Rain chances in general will
diminish as the drier air behind the front moves in. By Thursday
evening, rain chances will be confined to the southern part of
Oklahoma and north Texas.

CmS
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

A relatively cool and dry airmass will be in place over most of
Oklahoma and north Texas Thursday night, and a cut-off upper-
level low will still be residing over the Mexican state of
Chihuahua. With the upper low in relatively close proximity, low
rain chances will continue over most of Texas and parts of
southern Oklahoma through Saturday. As the surface airmass shifts
east with time, a return flow of increasing moisture will begin
during the weekend.

Then, the upper-level low will finally start moving northeast into
Texas, before being assimilated into the Westerlies. As the low
approaches north Texas and Oklahoma, rain chances will increase
over eastern and central Oklahoma Saturday night and Sunday.

Early next week, a shortwave trough aloft, combined with an
associated surface low, will maintain rain chances. This time,
the chances will be mainly over northern, then eastern Oklahoma.

CmS
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

The forecast is fairly messy with convective redevelopment
expected through the afternoon and evening along and ahead of a
front. Most of northwest Oklahoma behind the front should remain
clear, but the rest of the region will see on and off
thunderstorms through the evening. Ceilings will lift slightly
this afternoon, then drop again overnight. Winds at all sites will
shift to the north through the afternoon as the front pushes
through.

Day

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

No upper air flights are currently planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  72  51  74 /  80  10  10   0
Hobart OK         55  72  48  76 /  70  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  58  71  52  75 /  80  30  20  10
Gage OK           49  74  44  77 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  74  48  76 /  80  10   0   0
Durant OK         63  74  55  76 /  90  70  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ013-019-020-023>032-
     037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1152 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across
portions of the area through tonight. Strong to severe storms are
possible, with the highest potential in parts of southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Large hail up to the size of
golf balls and wind gusts up to 60 mph are the main concerns.
There is also a low potential for a tornado or two in parts of
south central and southeast Oklahoma later this afternoon and this
evening.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Additional heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding across
portions of central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas
through tonight, especially in those areas that received several
inches of rain overnight last night into this morning.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel should
prepare for severe weather operations through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms should exit the area Thursday morning. Additional
thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Tuesday of next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 PM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     FLOOD            4 S MOORE               35.28N 97.49W
04/28/2021                   CLEVELAND          OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: RIVER/CREEK OVERFLOWING;
            CROPLAND/YARD/BASEMENT FLOODING.

&&

RCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
448 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ023>025-027-038-282230-
Grady OK-Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-Caddo OK-Comanche OK-
448 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Grady...west central
Oklahoma...eastern Canadian...southern Caddo and north central
Comanche Counties Until 530 PM CDT...

AT 445 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Oklahoma City to 5 miles northwest of Cyril, nearly stationary.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the formation of funnel clouds, but the
threat posed by these funnel clouds is low. Most funnel clouds will
not reach the ground. If they do, weak tornadoes with brief wind
gusts in excess of 50 MPH may occur.

If you observe a funnel cloud or one is reported in your area, move
indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 9754 3517 9788 3476 9833 3497 9854
      3571 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 309DEG 16KT 3553 9770 3496 9826

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
501 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ008-012-013-019-020-282245-
Garfield OK-Payne OK-Logan OK-Kay OK-Noble OK-
501 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Garfield...
northwestern Payne...north central Logan...eastern Kay and Noble
Counties Until 545 PM CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
9 miles south of Kaw City to 5 miles southwest of Lake Carl
Blackwell, nearly stationary.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Conditions are favorable for the formation of funnel clouds, but the
threat posed by these funnel clouds is low. Most funnel clouds will
not reach the ground. If they do, weak tornadoes with brief wind
gusts in excess of 50 MPH may occur.

If you observe a funnel cloud or one is reported in your area, move
indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9675 3677 9682 3674 9683 3675 9689
      3668 9693 3670 9704 3667 9706 3659 9706
      3660 9691 3658 9689 3655 9690 3651 9703
      3633 9703 3633 9692 3632 9692 3619 9701
      3599 9729 3615 9756 3700 9693 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 292DEG 6KT 3664 9692 3609 9730

MAD