Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...New AVIATION, UPPER AIR...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Thunderstorm initiation has begun in west Texas and this activity
will spread and expand northeast this afternoon and this evening.
Clearing of the mid and high level clouds will allow
destabilization across the west this afternoon, so instability
will increase this afternoon in these area. It is still a little
more in question about how much destabilization we will get
farther northeast as to whether storms toward central Oklahoma
will be surface-based or more elevated. But with time overnight,
the threat will shift more from severe thunderstorm potential to
heavy rain potential as thunderstorm coverage increases. We issued
a Flood Watch already for this scenario as forecast precipitable
water amounts of 1.75" to 2" are quite extreme for late April.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

The storm system over the southern Plains will be slow to move
away, so rain/thunderstorm chances will diminish only slowly
Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will end gradually from
northwest to southeast, while drier air moves into the region from
the northwest.

The upper-level system responsible for the current rain/storms is
forecast to cut off over Texas. The various models have very
different ideas as to how the cutoff low will evolve, as is
commonly the case. This leads to rather low-confidence forecasts
from the weekend into early next week.

The most likely scenario is that the upper low will drift slowly
east, similar to, but a little faster than, the 12Z ECMWF outlook.
This would cause a bit of moisture return over our southeast this
weekend, leading to low chances for showers on Sunday. Beyond
that, there is no clear preference in outcomes, so the forecast is
basically a mix of the possibilities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

Widespread TSRA are expected through the period. There will be
early breaks in the activity over southeast and northwest
Oklahoma, but rain and storms should fill in over most of the
region overnight and especially early Wednesday. Ceilings are
expected to be lowest within a few hours either side of sunrise
Wednesday, with slight improvement through the day.

CmS
&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

No upper air flights are currently planned for tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  64  75  56 /  40  70  80  60
Hobart OK         82  62  78  53 /  30  70  70  40
Wichita Falls TX  83  67  79  57 /  30  70  80  50
Gage OK           82  56  75  48 /  20  30  40  40
Ponca City OK     81  64  77  55 /  20  70  80  60
Durant OK         76  67  79  61 /  40  50  80  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ008-013-019-020-
     023>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1241 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight. A
Slight Risk covers most of Oklahoma and all of western north
Texas. While large hail will be the primary hazard over the
larger area, all severe weather hazards are possible, especially
across western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. The greatest
risk for severe weather will be late afternoon into the early
evening.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding is possible
tonight.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across northwest
Oklahoma late morning into this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk of thunderstorms south of line from near
Woodward, to Enid, and to Stillwater. Thunderstorms are forecast
to exit to the east Wednesday morning with additional
thunderstorms expected to redevelop by the afternoon. While large
hail will be the primary hazard over the larger area, all severe
weather hazards are possible, especially across western north
Texas and southwest Oklahoma. Thunderstorms should exit the area
early Thursday morning.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Heavy rainfall and flooding will continue to be a hazard on
Wednesday into early Thursday. During this period, the greatest
risk for flooding will be across southeast and south central
Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
624 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

OKZ036-037-TXZ083>085-087-088-280000-
Tillman OK-Jackson OK-Foard TX-Knox TX-Wilbarger TX-Baylor TX-
Hardeman TX-
624 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR western Tillman...southeastern
Jackson...southeastern Foard...northeastern Knox...Wilbarger...
northwestern Baylor and southeastern Hardeman Counties Until 700 PM
CDT...

AT 622 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles northwest of Odell to 7 miles southeast of Medicine Mound to
10 miles south of Thalia, moving northeast at 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3358 9967 3441 9959 3464 9910 3464 9908
      3393 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 232DEG 47KT 3437 9947 3413 9949 3383 9950

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CDT TUE APR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 SW LOVELAND           34.24N 98.85W
04/27/2021                   TILLMAN            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
743 PM CDT TUE APR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W GRANDFIELD          34.23N 98.74W
04/27/2021  M63 MPH          TILLMAN            OK   MESONET

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT TUE APR 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             ELECTRA                 34.03N 98.91W
04/27/2021  E1.25 INCH       WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

&&

RCB

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