Severe Thunderstorm Warning 524, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
557 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Will need to be relatively brief given the workload today. From a
meteorological standpoint here are our concerns/uncertainties.

1. Magnitude of low-level warm/moist advection will be the primary
driver for instability through the night. This is typical with
significant mid-latitude systems in the fall especially.

2. The potential for discrete/semi-discrete convective initiation
further south where DCVA forcing/height falls are less. This is
shown in some of the CAMs (i.e., HRRR, and FV3).

3. The degree of near-surface buoyancy and thus specifically where
convection will primarily be rooted could potentially modulate the
tornado threat to some degree. Low-level thermodynamic details are
always important for this.

Significant negative 500-mb height anomalies are associated with the
trough/closed low moving northeastward through the central Rockies
late today. The low-level response is quite significant and
impressive with a broad and strong low-level jet quickly modifying
the atmosphere with strong moisture advection. The net result will
be an instability/shear parameter space that is anomalous and quite
supportive of tornadoes. The primary limiting factors to a more
significant tornado event could be how convection initiates/evolves,
the details of near-ground buoyancy, and if timing of stronger
forcing for ascent/cap removal are out of phase. This is primarily
an issue for the Panhandles into southwest Kansas.

There is a conditional scenario of some development in the southwest
later this evening working toward central Oklahoma (re: some of the
HREF members). This may be primarily rooted within deeper moisture
surge and just above the ground, so may be slightly elevated.
Nevertheless, strong effective shear and steepening mid-level lapse
rates could yield at least a large hail damaging wind threat if this
scenario does evolve.

Ultimately, later in the evening, shear vector orientation and
surging Pacific front should result in an evolution toward linear
mode, likely before the bulk of the convection enters our area.
Regardless of a more positive (north-northeast to south-southwest)
orientation of the linear convective system limiting the angle to
the deep shear vectors, the shear magnitudes will be enough for
some QLCS mesovortices and a QLCS tornado concern into the night,
and as far east as central Oklahoma. We will watch for rear-
inflow jets, surges/bows for localized enhanced wind/tornado
threat into the night.

BRB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Will be brief with the long term. Ensemble mean amounts are more
than reasonable for another wave of convection Wednesday night
into Thursday across our southeast. This is induced by the next
low- amplitude shortwave but exacerbated by deep eastern Pacific
tropical connection with deep moisture driving precipitable water
values to quite anomalous levels. We issued a Flood Watch for this
concern. A quieter pattern will settle in this weekend into early
next week.

BRB

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

MVFR conditions this evening at most sites. There will be a few
storms across western Oklahoma this evening and will intro a
mention at WWR with better storm chances at most sites after
midnight into the first part of the morning tomorrow. Rain should
end of from west to east toward the end of the forecast with
clearing skies out west and ceilings rising to VFR farther east.
Gusty southeast winds will shift to the south and southwest and
decrease overnight.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 00Z and 03Z this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  77  60  75 / 100  30  30  30
Hobart OK         58  77  57  80 / 100   0  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  66  80  63  80 /  90  40  40  30
Gage OK           48  73  47  77 /  70   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     63  75  54  75 / 100  30  10  30
Durant OK         69  79  65  78 /  60  90  90  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
     OKZ043-047-048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1207 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered showers and some storms will remain possible through the
afternoon hours. The severe potential with these storms is low
although small hail could be possible with the stronger storms.

There is a risk for severe storms later this evening into
Wednesday morning. Individual storms are expected to develop in
the Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma this evening and
eventually develop into a line as they move east across the area.
In addition to this activity, a few storms may develop ahead of
the line across southwest Oklahoma by sunset and move into
central Oklahoma this evening. Large hail up to baseballs,
damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
with the initial storms but then damaging winds will become an
increasing concern with the line of storms overnight.

With the severe weather expected to take place during the
nighttime into morning hours, make sure you have multiple ways to
receive warnings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will be needed this evening into Wednesday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

.Thunderstorms...
Ongoing severe weather will be possible across portions of
Oklahoma and north Texas Wednesday morning as thunderstorms and a
cold front continues to move across the area. Damaging winds will
be the primary concern.

Thunderstorms will remain possible across portions of central and
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas through Wednesday
evening before rain chances spread back north and continue
Thursday. The severe potential will diminish by Wednesday
afternoon. However, heavy rain will to be a concern.

.Heavy Rain...
Heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday could cause flooding in some
areas, especially in parts of south central and southeastern
Oklahoma where a Flood Watch is in effect for Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
303 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

OKZ013-019-020-122045-
Payne OK-Logan OK-Noble OK-
303 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Noble, north
central Logan and west central Payne Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 303 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Orlando, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Red Rock, Orlando, Sooner Lake, Lake Carl Blackwell and Ceres.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 172 and 198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3647 9703 3640 9703 3607 9734 3612 9751
      3616 9749 3617 9746 3621 9746 3658 9727
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 208DEG 39KT 3615 9737

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

03

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
342 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

OKZ008-013-122115-
Kay OK-Noble OK-
342 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Kay and
north central Noble Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 340 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Red Rock, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...A significant amount of hail could occur causing
         accumulations on roads and briefly impacting travel.

Locations impacted include...
Ponca City, Kaw City, Red Rock, Marland, Kildare and southwestern Kaw
Lake.

LAT...LON 3675 9684 3675 9689 3668 9693 3669 9702
      3670 9704 3668 9706 3666 9706 3664 9705
      3660 9704 3659 9706 3658 9702 3658 9696
      3640 9716 3645 9728 3686 9710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 208DEG 33KT 3648 9718

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
414 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

OKZ008-122145-
Kay OK-
414 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Kay County
through 445 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Ponca City, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...A significant amount of hail could occur causing
         accumulations on roads and briefly impacting travel.

Locations impacted include...
Ponca City, Kaw City, Hardy and Kaw Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9675 3678 9679 3677 9679 3677 9682
      3674 9683 3675 9687 3675 9689 3668 9693
      3669 9702 3670 9704 3667 9707 3668 9709
      3700 9695 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 207DEG 33KT 3671 9697

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
503 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

OKZ033-034-036-122230-
Harmon OK-Greer OK-Jackson OK-
503 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Jackson, eastern Harmon and southwestern Greer Counties through 530
PM CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, radar, and visual observations from live tower cam
imagery, shows increasingly organized developing thunderstorm near
Gould moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mangum, Gould and McQueen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storm intensity is increasinga and severe weather may develop
rapidly. Be certain to monitor local radio stations and available
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3453 9974 3456 9990 3499 9978 3491 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 201DEG 31KT 3465 9979

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
522 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

TXZ084-087-088-122245-
Foard TX-Knox TX-Baylor TX-
522 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Foard,
eastern Knox and northwestern Baylor Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rhineland, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Munday, Goree, Red Springs, Vera and Rhineland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 9952 3347 9970 3387 9962 3379 9931
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 198DEG 31KT 3350 9961

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
526 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

OKZ021-033-034-122300-
Harmon OK-Beckham OK-Greer OK-
526 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Harmon,
western Greer and southeastern Beckham Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Vinson, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Harmon, western Greer and southeastern Beckham Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 9966 3481 9984 3519 9980 3514 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 195DEG 29KT 3484 9974

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BRB