River Flood Advisory 40, NWS Norman, OK

178 
WGUS84 KOUN 312005
FLSOUN

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Norman OK
305 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Salt Fork Red River near Mangum affecting Greer and Jackson 
  Counties.

OKC055-065-312115-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FL.Y.0040.000000T0000Z-210531T2005Z/
/MGMO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
305 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Salt Fork Red River near Mangum has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Salt Fork Red River near Mangum.
* At 2:45 PM CDT Monday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Salt Fork Red River is expected to continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 3488 9945 3464 9938 3464 9943 3482 9949
      3481 10000 3486 10000

$$

.speg.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

We updated the forecast once this morning, but we will update
the package again based on the on the current radar trends as the
southern edge of the first precipitation wave has moved east
quicker. But we also have the northern edge of the convective
complex in the Texas Big Country expanding into our southwestern
zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Lead shortwave in positively tilted longwave trough will progress
eastward today and tonight, partially influenced by multiple MCVs
(one centered near Dodge City, one east of Amarillo, and another
east of Lubbock). As these move east, high chances for rain will
be seen today through tonight. The heaviest rain for the first
part of the day will exit western Oklahoma and affect central and
southern Oklahoma, and western north Texas through this afternoon.
We cancelled parts of the flood watch across northwest and west-
central Oklahoma, but will keep the southern portions of it and
expand eastward into central and southern Oklahoma and the rest of
western north Texas through tonight. These are areas where
antecedent conditions are more conduce to runoff and flooding
problems.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

With general subsidence and lack of recovery expected on Tuesday
across the region, most of the region should be dry, with reasonably
high PoPs continuing across southeast parts of Oklahoma early in the
day. The mentioned longwave trough axis will shift east of Oklahoma
and western north Texas on Wednesday, allowing rain chances to
decrease even further. However, in its wake, broad upper cyclone
still progd to drift slowly east and northeast over the Southern
Plains. This will keep PoPs in the forecast this weekend, with best
chances across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Some of this rainfall this weekend into early next week will be
heavy, exacerbating any existing issues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Have areas of showers across the southern, central, and eastern
parts of the area and these will persist this afternoon as they
slowly move east. Widespread MVFR-IFR ceilings will continue
through the forecast period, even after showers and storms move
out of an area.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

No Upper Air flights are currently planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  60  70  58 /  90  70  30  10
Hobart OK         71  58  73  55 / 100  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  76  62  75  59 / 100  70  20  20
Gage OK           66  53  70  52 /  80  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     64  57  69  56 / 100  70  30  10
Durant OK         76  65  78  63 / 100 100  80  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ019-020-023>032-
     038>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ086-089-090.

     Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ087-088.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011215-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1250 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
mainly across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma.

.Heavy Rain...
Rain totals of one to three inches will be possible through
tonight. This may lead to some flooding, especially in areas that
have seen several inches of rain over the past week. A Flood
Watch is in effect through tonight for areas generally along
and southeast of Interstate 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue for the rest of the week into
next weekend, mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Organized severe storms are not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
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