River Flood Warning 20, NWS Norman, OK

811 
WGUS84 KOUN 311946
FLSOUN

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
246 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Salt Fork Red River near Mangum affecting Greer and Jackson 
  Counties.

OKC055-065-312100-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-210531T1946Z/
/MGMO2.1.ER.210531T1452Z.210531T1800Z.210531T2100Z.NO/
246 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Salt Fork Red River near Mangum has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Salt Fork Red River near Mangum.
* At 1:45 PM CDT Monday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Salt Fork Red River has crested and is falling.


&&

LAT...LON 3488 9945 3464 9938 3464 9943 3482 9949
      3481 10000 3486 10000

$$

.speg.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
632 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Lead shortwave in positively tilted longwave trough will progress
eastward today and tonight, partially influenced by multiple MCVs
(one centered near Dodge City, one east of Amarillo, and another
east of Lubbock). As these move east, high chances for rain will
be seen today through tonight. The heaviest rain for the first
part of the day will exit western Oklahoma and affect central and
southern Oklahoma, and western north Texas through this afternoon.
We cancelled parts of the flood watch across northwest and west-
central Oklahoma, but will keep the southern portions of it and
expand eastward into central and southern Oklahoma and the rest of
western north Texas through tonight. These are areas where
antecedent conditions are more conduce to runoff and flooding
problems.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

With general subsidence and lack of recovery expected on Tuesday
across the region, most of the region should be dry, with reasonably
high PoPs continuing across southeast parts of Oklahoma early in the
day. The mentioned longwave trough axis will shift east of Oklahoma
and western north Texas on Wednesday, allowing rain chances to
decrease even further. However, in its wake, broad upper cyclone
still progd to drift slowly east and northeast over the Southern
Plains. This will keep PoPs in the forecast this weekend, with best
chances across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Some of this rainfall this weekend into early next week will be
heavy, exacerbating any existing issues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

A large area of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms will
progress east across the region today. Highly variable ceilings
and visibilities will occur with this area of rain. Stronger
thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening near the Red
River. Most of the rain should end by sunset, but low ceilings and
some areas of mist or fog are expected to continue through the
night.

CmS
&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

No Upper Air flights are currently planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  60  70  58 /  90  70  30  10
Hobart OK         71  58  73  55 / 100  40  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  76  62  75  59 / 100  70  20  20
Gage OK           66  53  70  52 /  80  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     64  57  69  56 / 100  70  30  10
Durant OK         76  65  78  63 /  80 100  80  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ019-020-023>032-
     038>048-050>052.

     Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ021-022-033>037.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ086-089-090.

     Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ087-088.

     Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ083>085.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
517 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
517 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms will be seen today and tonight across a
large part of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Storm chances will
decrease from northwest to southeast as the day progresses. The
main concern will be heavy rain, which could result in flooding. A
few strong to severe storms are possible across far southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and evening with
the main threat being damaging winds.

.Heavy Rain...
Rain totals of one to three inches will be possible through
tonight. This may lead to some flash flooding, especially in
areas that have seen several inches of rain over the past week. A
Flood Watch is in effect today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue for the rest of the week into
next weekend, mainly across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Organized severe storms are not expected.

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