Areal Flood Warning 11, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
616 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

The weak front oriented southwest-northeast across central Oklahoma
is expected to drift a bit to the northwest during the day and
become stationary. This will enhance showers and thunderstorms
somewhat northwest of where they have been the last few days. The
weak surface low over southwestern Oklahoma is expected to deepen a
bit as well. This would enhance convergence into the front over west
central and into north central Oklahoma this afternoon. POPS are
higher in these areas today. A flood watch will be extended for
these areas until later this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

The wet pattern will continue for much of the rest of the week as a
trough remains across the central plains and a very moist airmass
stays overhead. Upper ridging will temporarily build over the
area from the east on Wednesday. At least isolated showers/storms
are expected given only a weak cap and moisture in place, but
overall coverage of storms will likely be less on Wednesday than
the last several days given a decrease in synoptic scale support
and a lack of discernible mesoscale forcing mechanisms. Highest
PoPs will be focused along the periphery of the ridge across
northern and western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon.

By Thursday the upper ridge retreats to our southwest as upper
troughing deepens to our north and east. This should help send a
cold front southward into our area which will serve as a focus for
more widespread thunderstorm development once again. Given how
much rain we have seen the last several days, Thursday will need
to be watched for as another day with broader flooding potential
along the front. On Friday the front pushes further south, likely
augmented/reinforced by Thursday's convection, with northern parts
of the area seeing much lower precipitation chances by Friday
afternoon. High pressure is expected to continue to build in from
the north on Saturday, helping to push precipitation chances even
further south and finally giving our area a chance to dry out a
bit this weekend after an extended period of drenching rains.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

IFR and MVFR conditions will persist through the period. Showers
will move from the south this morning over much of OKlahoma before
thunderstorms resume this evening with heavy rainfall expected in
northern Oklahoma. Winds will be less than 12 knots.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

No upper air flights are planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  69  84  70 /  70  40  50  40
Hobart OK         78  68  85  69 /  70  50  40  30
Wichita Falls TX  83  70  87  72 /  60  30  30  20
Gage OK           78  65  85  67 /  70  40  40  40
Ponca City OK     79  69  83  69 /  80  50  70  50
Durant OK         86  71  88  71 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ006>008-011>030-033>038.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ083>085.

&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
427 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-300930-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
427 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorms will occur today, with most of the activity
across western, central, and northeast parts of Oklahoma. No
severe storms are expected, but heavy rain associated with storms
will increase the threat of flooding.

.Heavy Rain...
Given recent rainfall from southwest into central Oklahoma, it
will not take much additional rain to result in flooding problems.
Although brief in nature, heavy rain associated with thunderstorms
could lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of the week,
gradually shifting southward by Friday into the weekend.

.Heavy Rain...
Because of saturated ground across much of the area, a risk for
flooding will continue through much of the week.

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