Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
202 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon. Southeast areas
were recently upgraded to a slight risk and we have seen a few
rotating cells on radar. Strongest storm is now in northwestern
Cumberland Co but appears to be remaining below severe limits at
this time. No wind or svr wx reports thus far.

On the other side of the coin is the flood threat. Moisture axis now
set up across the Plateau where appreciable amounts have occurred,
particularly across portions of the southern plateau. We are
expecting a stronger impulse to gain strength by this evening across
northeastern AL. Energy will transfer northward across eastern
portions of the mid state with another round of heavier showers and
thunderstorms. It looks as though the bulk of the rainfall will
occur this evening with the heaviest amounts to the east of I-65.
Note however, Lawrence county was ambushed with upwards of 5 inches
of rainfall yesterday. Will therefore keep the Flash flood watch
going for all the current counties. There was some contemplation in
regard to pulling the watch for our westernmost counties. However,
given the heavier rainfall that fell prior, along with the very low
ffg values, will opt to keep the watch in tact. The watch will
remain in effect through Thursday morning. Otw, look for overnight
rainfall amounts to range from a quarter inch west to up to 1 1/2
inches along the Plateau. Pops tonight will range from 50% west to
likely to categorical along the Plateau.

Moving on, the upper low will be lifting off to the north on
Thursday with drier air moving in. Rainfall chances will decrease
down to just a 20-30 percent chance by Thursday evening.

For the near term temps, looking warmer than normal, especially with
low temps which will run a good 10 to 15 degree above normal.

In the ext fcst, upper ridging still expected to build into the
region through the weekend. A weakening frontal boundary will bring
both a brief and low percentage chance of showers for early next
week. Otw, its looking quite warm with elevated heights and warm
850 mb temps. Look for highs to hold in the 80s with lows in the
lower to mid 60s. That equates to about 12 to 15 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Look for storms to increase across Middle
Tennessee this afternoon and into the evening. A strong upper low
is situated over northeast Arkansas and this is the overriding
feature affecting the mid state. There is also an inverted
surface trough bisecting Middle Tennessee, and this is helping to
focus a lot of the moisture that is being advected up from the
south. Atmosphere continues to destabilize, and any sunshine we
see going forward will contribute to further destabilization.
Overnight, look for ceilings to lower with some radiation fog
possible toward morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  79  62  82  62 /  60  30  20  20  10
Clarksville    64  77  60  81  61 /  50  40  20  10  10
Crossville     62  73  58  74  56 /  80  50  50  30  10
Columbia       64  80  60  82  60 /  60  30  20  10  10
Lawrenceburg   64  79  60  81  60 /  60  30  20  20  10
Waverly        64  78  60  81  60 /  50  30  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Bedford-Coffee-
Cumberland-Giles-Grundy-Lawrence-Marshall-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
501 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
501 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A flash flood watch is in effect through tonight for southern
locations approaching Tennessee/Alabama Border Region and across
central and southern portions of Cumberland Plateau Region.
Rainfall amounts of one to three inches, with locally higher
amounts, will be possible.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening across most of Middle Tennessee. With
any strong to severe thunderstorms that do develop, main threats
will be strong to damaging winds and potentially large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms continuing across eastern
portions of mid state region could cause continuing flooding
concerns across this area through at least Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

JB Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1048 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

TNZ065-078-080-061615-
Van Buren TN-Warren TN-White TN-
1048 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Van Buren,
southeastern Warren and southern White Counties through 1115 AM
CDT...

At 1048 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Spencer, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Spencer, Doyle, Virgin Falls State Natural Area and Fall Creek Falls
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 8540 3557 8542 3556 8545 3555 8546
      3555 8549 3554 8553 3554 8555 3553 8556
      3553 8565 3593 8560 3586 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1548Z 192DEG 27KT 3559 8553

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

TNZ065-066-080-061715-
Cumberland TN-Van Buren TN-White TN-
1143 AM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Cumberland, northeastern Van Buren and southeastern White Counties
through 1215 PM CDT...

At 1142 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Spencer, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Virgin Falls State Natural Area, Indian Rock Lake, Lake Tansi and
Fall Creek Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 8515 3576 8526 3575 8526 3573 8527
      3572 8527 3570 8528 3574 8539 3595 8536
      3585 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 215DEG 13KT 3573 8531

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
341 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

TNZ034-062115-
Fentress TN-
341 PM CDT Wed Oct 6 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Fentress County through 415 PM CDT...

At 340 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Jamestown, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jamestown and Grimsley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 8499 3624 8508 3649 8509 3647 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 190DEG 14KT 3628 8503

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Shamburger