Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
616 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A couple rotating storms were had earlier this evening and while
only preliminary, it looks like damage we had in Montgomery county
was due to straight-line winds. A few storms continue at forecast
time, but with severe parameters falling off as we lose the heating
from yesterday, they should remain tame. However, we aren't quite
out of the woods with this system yet. Look for the current
activity to wane further as we approach sunrise, but by early this
afternoon, additional thunderstorm development is expected as
some leftover forcing remains in the area. Today's focus will be
along and east of I-65 and mainly on the Cumberland Plateau. CAPE
values climb into the 2000s with deep layer bulk shear values
close to 40 kts and while these are good numbers, the helicity
values fall off after Noon as the parent low pulls further and
further away from Middle TN. Because of this, updraft maintenance
will be difficult. Expectations are for the potential of a couple
strong storms and maybe eek out one severe during the afternoon
and into the early evening hours before storms pull completely out
of the mid-state. Winds gusts of 40-60 mph would be the main
concern and with lapse rates close to 7.0 deg/km, some marginally
severe hail will be possible, too.

We'll likely start Friday with at least some patchy fog, but as we
head into the day and this system exits the region, we'll fall
into a northwest flow aloft. This should make for a rather cloudy
day and while it won't be exceptionally cool, we could be in for
one of those spitty-rain kind of days. The good news is, Saturday
should be fabulous. Highs in the mid to upper 80s and dry.

Sunday is more of a wild-card right now. An upper low over Arklatex
is expected to start to pushing closer to us and we could begin
to see scattered showers and thunderstorms move into the region by
Sunday afternoon. At this point, I don't think it'll be a
washout, but it could dampen a few outdoor activities.

In the extended, that upper low from Sunday becomes broad and
diffuse. This could provide the necessary weaknesses aloft for
diurnal thunderstorm activity starting Monday and last through most
of the week with highs around normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mainly MVFR cigs will be in place this morning. TSRA will impact
CSV through 14Z. Additional development of isolated to scattered
showers and storms will occur through the day as a front crosses
the area. CSV will remain the most likely site to be directly
impacted. Conditions will improve to mainly VFR late afternoon,
but cigs/vsbys likely to drop again late tonight as fog/stratus
develops.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
459 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
459 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to briefly severe storms are possible today. Damaging
winds and large hail will be possible. A few localized heavy
downpours will occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
603 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

TNZ034-066-031145-
Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-
603 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

At 603 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles north of Fairfield Glade to 12 miles
southwest of Crossville. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crossville, Fairfield Glade, Crab Orchard, Lake Tansi, Cumberland
Mountain State Park, Slate Springs and Indian Rock Lake.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 316 and 340.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 8477 3576 8491 3575 8503 3576 8503
      3577 8504 3576 8507 3577 8525 3578 8525
      3622 8494 3634 8474 3624 8489 3621 8491
      3615 8491 3613 8487 3608 8483 3610 8482
      3609 8480 3600 8472 3591 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1103Z 234DEG 29KT 3620 8492 3582 8518

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
856 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

TNZ032>034-065-066-031445-
Putnam TN-Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-White TN-
856 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OVERTON...
NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...NORTHERN WHITE...CENTRAL PUTNAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

At 856 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sparta, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cookeville, Sparta, Algood, Monterey, Grimsley, Hamptons Crossroads,
Bakers Crossroads, Clarkrange, Crawford and Burgess Falls State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 287 and 313.

LAT...LON 3586 8555 3598 8565 3600 8564 3603 8566
      3641 8513 3641 8511 3643 8510 3645 8507
      3626 8488 3624 8488 3621 8491 3618 8490
      3615 8491 3614 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1356Z 233DEG 35KT 3599 8554

Barnwell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

TNZ008-009-028-029-031745-
Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-Macon TN-
1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMNER...NORTHERN WILSON...MACON
AND TROUSDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1154 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Westmoreland to near
Goodlettsville. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lafayette, Hartsville, Hendersonville, Mount Juliet,
Goodlettsville, Westmoreland, Bethpage, Oak Grove, Bledsoe Creek
State Park, Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area, Cottontown and Green
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8580 3642 8595 3643 8598 3640 8598
      3638 8605 3634 8610 3629 8614 3626 8612
      3625 8662 3626 8664 3629 8664 3632 8670
      3665 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 261DEG 30KT 3663 8637 3631 8668

Barnwell