Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
231 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...

A couple rotating storms were had earlier this evening and while
only preliminary, it looks like damage we had in Montgomery county
was due to straight-line winds. A few storms continue at forecast
time, but with severe parameters falling off as we lose the heating
from yesterday, they should remain tame. However, we aren't quite
out of the woods with this system yet. Look for the current
activity to wane further as we approach sunrise, but by early this
afternoon, additional thunderstorm development is expected as
some leftover forcing remains in the area. Today's focus will be
along and east of I-65 and mainly on the Cumberland Plateau. CAPE
values climb into the 2000s with deep layer bulk shear values
close to 40 kts and while these are good numbers, the helicity
values fall off after Noon as the parent low pulls further and
further away from Middle TN. Because of this, updraft maintenance
will be difficult. Expectations are for the potential of a couple
strong storms and maybe eek out one severe during the afternoon
and into the early evening hours before storms pull completely out
of the mid-state. Winds gusts of 40-60 mph would be the main
concern and with lapse rates close to 7.0 deg/km, some marginally
severe hail will be possible, too.

We'll likely start Friday with at least some patchy fog, but as we
head into the day and this system exits the region, we'll fall
into a northwest flow aloft. This should make for a rather cloudy
day and while it won't be exceptionally cool, we could be in for
one of those spitty-rain kind of days. The good news is, Saturday
should be fabulous. Highs in the mid to upper 80s and dry.

Sunday is more of a wild-card right now. An upper low over Arklatex
is expected to start to pushing closer to us and we could begin
to see scattered showers and thunderstorms move into the region by
Sunday afternoon. At this point, I don't think it'll be a
washout, but it could dampen a few outdoor activities.

In the extended, that upper low from Sunday becomes broad and
diffuse. This could provide the necessary weaknesses aloft for
diurnal thunderstorm activity starting Monday and last through most
of the week with highs around normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV...MVFR cigs will be common through 15Z as isolated
showers continue to move across the area. Winds will be mainly
south less than 10KT. After 15Z, cigs will improve to mainly VFR,
but isolated showers and storms will create briefly lower
cigs/vsbys through the day. Winds will shift to southwest and
eventually west as a surface front passes.

CSV...mainly VFR will continue into the late night with a few
light showers. Cigs/vsbys will lower to MVFR around 12Z.
Conditions will be up and down on Thursday as scattered showers
and storms impact the terminal and surrounding areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      80  61  83  62  88 /  50  30  10   0   0
Clarksville    77  58  82  61  85 /  50  20  10   0   0
Crossville     73  57  77  57  81 /  70  60  20   0   0
Columbia       82  59  82  61  86 /  40  30  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   81  59  82  61  86 /  50  30  10   0   0
Waverly        79  58  82  61  86 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
336 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-030845-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
336 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to briefly severe storms are possible this afternoon
and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

A few heavy downpours will occur, mainly along and west of I-65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few strong to briefly severe storms are possible Thursday.
Damaging winds will be the main threat with any severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1037 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSVILLE             36.56N  87.35W
06/02/2021                   MONTGOMERY         TN   MEDIA

            TV FOOTAGE SHOWS SEVERAL TRANSFORMER EXPLOSIONS
            RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100528

ROSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
252 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

TNZ060-061-094-095-030830-
Lawrence TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-Marshall TN-
252 AM CDT Thu Jun 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN MAURY AND GILES COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 251 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Pulaski to near
Rogersville. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy downpours will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lewisburg, Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Chapel Hill, Ardmore, Cornersville,
Elkton, Minor Hill, Lynnville, Goodspring, Frankewing, Prospect and
Farmington.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 37.

LAT...LON 3500 8736 3527 8732 3565 8669 3528 8672
      3525 8675 3526 8683 3500 8684 3499 8686
TIME...MOT...LOC 0751Z 221DEG 33KT 3514 8718 3488 8732

13