Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
938 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Went with a blended model solution through next Sunday
afternoon. Continued good initialization and generally good
solution agreement of weather evolution pattern through next
Sunday afternoon also. Significant rainfall event still in
works for tonight with now severe thunderstorms possible
through at least 01/04Z for locations around and west of
the I-65 Corridor.

28/18Z Special OHX Sounding showing very moist profile in low
levels giving around 1.4 inches of precipitable water. Mixed layer
CAPE around 450 J/KG with strong wind shear. SRH values around
400 with some turning of winds in the lowest levels adequate
enough for tornadic development. Still believe damaging winds
with heavy downpours will be main concern with any severe
thunderstorms that develop. Looks like best window for main brunt
of showers and thunderstorms around Nashville Metro Area will be
around 9 PM this evening.

Taking a even a closer look, the warm front has continued to
tracking northeastward, with a tight surface/low level lows across
Great Lakes Region doing the same. Movement of these lows will
drag its associated cold front across mid state region as evening
hours progress and potentially even into late night hours. Mid
and upper level flow not especially impressive as it is continuing
to be depicted by latest model runs along with surface cold front.
As a result, it may take some time for deep moisture/widespread
rain to move out as well. Showers and thunderstorms have develop
across northwest portions of mid state as afternoon hours have
progressed. It will more than likely take through sunrise Monday
for heavier precipitation to move out of mid state region. With
much of the area already seeing several inches of rain over the
past few days, the flood threat will continue through early
morning hours on Monday, especially rivers and creeks that will
likely stay elevated for several upcoming days. Continued flood
watch through tonight with another 1-2 inches of rainfall possible.

Lows tonight will fall into low to mid 40s as surface frontal
passage occurs. As a cold air advection pattern from our north
settles into mid state region as Monday progresses, highs will be
actually be a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values
generally upper 40s to lower 50s.

Following this system, dry conditions will prevail Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning. However scattered showers
are expected across mid state region as Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night progresses as moisture advection from the southwest
works into mid state region and an upper level low passes very
close to TN/AL border region. Dry conditions should finally
prevail across mid state region Wednesday through upcoming
weekend as now models have shifted any precipitation potential
to south and east of mid state region. Temperatures are expected
to stay around seasonal normal values Tuesday through next Sunday
afternoon also.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

The heaviest rainfall is just west of the Plateau at this time.
Still expecting some of the heavier precip to reach CSV early in
the upcoming taf period. Otw, the widespread light to moderate
rain extends back across all of middle TN. It will take most of
the overnight hours before we see the rainfall end from west to
east. Thru 12Z look for periods of IFR conditions to continue.

Moving on, IFR conditions to lift aft 12Z. Partial clearing will
commence at CKV by 00Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
355 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
355 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

1 to 2+ inches of rain is again expected today. Falling on already
saturated grounds, there is a moderate flood threat at least through
tonight.

Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible late this
afternoon and early tonight. Damaging straight line wind is the main
threat but isolated tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Several rivers will likely remain elevated through much of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
853 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW ASHLAND CITY      36.33N  87.09W
02/28/2021                   CHEATHAM           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LOCKERTSVILLE ROAD AT HARRISTOWN ROAD IS FLOODED

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100282

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
912 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAINESBORO              36.36N  85.65W
02/28/2021                   JACKSON            TN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON SEVERAL ROADWAYS ACROSS THE COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100283

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIVINGSTON              36.39N  85.33W
02/28/2021                   OVERTON            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING LINDER MOUNTAIN ROAD AND POWER POLE
            AND LINES DOWN BLOCKING HIGHWAY 111 NEAR BIG SPRINGS
            ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100284

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE NEW JOHNSONVILLE  36.01N  87.91W
02/28/2021                   HUMPHREYS          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AND DAMAGE REPORTED
            TO A FEW HOMES ON MILL ROAD AND OLD STATE ROAD IN NEW
            JOHNSONVILLE.

&&

CORRECTED FATALITIES...INJURIES...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100275

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
937 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             36.50N  86.88W
02/28/2021                   ROBERTSON          TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE COUNTY INCLUDING
            SMITH STREET AT 5TH STREET...SAGE ROAD AT HWY 76...7428
            HWY 49 EAST...OLD COOPERTOWN ROAD AT WOODS ROAD...CROSS
            PLAINS ROAD...BETHLEHEM ROAD...DIXON ROAD...AND HWY 25
            EAST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100285

SHAMBURGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
954 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TNZ075-077-010500-
Bedford TN-Coffee TN-
954 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COFFEE AND BEDFORD COUNTIES UNTIL
1100 PM CST...

At 954 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Shelbyville, moving east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Manchester, Tullahoma, Wartrace, Bell Buckle, Normandy,
Deason, Hillsboro, Raus, Unionville, Summitville and Arnold AFB.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 99 and 126.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3532 8600 3534 8603 3536 8613 3535 8623
      3534 8626 3535 8624 3541 8626 3535 8641
      3532 8642 3536 8649 3537 8662 3546 8667
      3563 8659 3559 8595 3553 8588 3542 8589
      3538 8589 3538 8587 3533 8591 3529 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 272DEG 32KT 3549 8660

Shamburger