River Flood Advisory 8, NWS Nashville, TN

776 
WGUS84 KOHX 011635
FLSOHX

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1035 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  Cumberland River Near Edenwold affecting Sumner, Wilson and 
  Davidson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or 
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


TNC037-165-189-020400-
/O.CON.KOHX.FL.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/EDWT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1035 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Cumberland River Near Edenwold.
* Until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM CST Monday the stage was 43.3 feet and steady.
* Action stage is 42.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 49.0 feet.
* Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
* Impact...At 42.0 feet, Low lying areas along the river from Old 
  Hickory Dam to near the Hermitage Golf Course begin to be 
  inunudated, and water backs up Mansker Creek affecting portions of 
  Moss Wright Park.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet, Inundation of low lying areas along the 
  river continues, affecting portions of Moss Wright Park on Mansker 
  Creek and industrial property along Dry Creek. Water begins to 
  inundate the athletic fields at Pope John Paul II High School, 
  agricultural areas, and Riverside Golf Center.


&&

LAT...LON 3613 8699 3625 8697 3624 8678 3631 8667
      3622 8658 3611 8677

$$

LaRosa

670 
WGUS84 KOHX 020050
FLSOHX

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
650 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

...The Flood Advisory continues for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  Cumberland River Near Edenwold affecting Sumner, Wilson and 
  Davidson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or 
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


TNC037-165-189-030100-
/O.CON.KOHX.FL.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/EDWT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
650 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

...The Flood Advisory remains in effect...

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Cumberland River Near Edenwold.
* Until further notice.
* At 6:00 PM CST Monday the stage was 43.2 feet and rising.
* Action stage is 42.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 49.0 feet.
* Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
* Impact...At 42.0 feet, Low lying areas along the river from Old 
  Hickory Dam to near the Hermitage Golf Course begin to be 
  inunudated, and water backs up Mansker Creek affecting portions of 
  Moss Wright Park.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet, Inundation of low lying areas along the 
  river continues, affecting portions of Moss Wright Park on Mansker 
  Creek and industrial property along Dry Creek. Water begins to 
  inundate the athletic fields at Pope John Paul II High School, 
  agricultural areas, and Riverside Golf Center.


&&

LAT...LON 3613 8699 3625 8697 3624 8678 3631 8667
      3622 8658 3611 8677

$$

Barnwell

836 
WGUS84 KOHX 030052
FLSOHX

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
652 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Tennessee...

  Cumberland River Near Edenwold affecting Davidson County.

TNC037-030200-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FL.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210303T0052Z/
/EDWT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
652 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Cumberland River Near Edenwold has 
been cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Cumberland River Near Edenwold.
* At 6:00 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 41.1 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 49.0 feet.
* Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.


&&

LAT...LON 3613 8699 3625 8697 3624 8678 3631 8667
      3622 8658 3611 8677

$$

27

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
430 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Went with a blended model solution through next Sunday
afternoon. Continued good initialization and generally good
solution agreement of weather evolution pattern through next
Sunday afternoon also. Significant rainfall event still in
works for tonight with now severe thunderstorms possible
through at least 01/04Z for locations around and west of
the I-65 Corridor.

28/18Z Special OHX Sounding showing very moist profile in low
levels giving around 1.4 inches of precipitable water. Mixed layer
CAPE around 450 J/KG with strong wind shear. SRH values around
400 with some turning of winds in the lowest levels adequate
enough for tornadic development. Still believe damaging winds
with heavy downpours will be main concern with any severe
thunderstorms that develop. Looks like best window for main brunt
of showers and thunderstorms around Nashville Metro Area will be
around 9 PM this evening.

Taking a even a closer look, the warm front has continued to
tracking northeastward, with a tight surface/low level lows across
Great Lakes Region doing the same. Movement of these lows will
drag its associated cold front across mid state region as evening
hours progress and potentially even into late night hours. Mid
and upper level flow not especially impressive as it is continuing
to be depicted by latest model runs along with surface cold front.
As a result, it may take some time for deep moisture/widespread
rain to move out as well. Showers and thunderstorms have develop
across northwest portions of mid state as afternoon hours have
progressed. It will more than likely take through sunrise Monday
for heavier precipitation to move out of mid state region. With
much of the area already seeing several inches of rain over the
past few days, the flood threat will continue through early
morning hours on Monday, especially rivers and creeks that will
likely stay elevated for several upcoming days. Continued flood
watch through tonight with another 1-2 inches of rainfall possible.

Lows tonight will fall into low to mid 40s as surface frontal
passage occurs. As a cold air advection pattern from our north
settles into mid state region as Monday progresses, highs will be
actually be a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values
generally upper 40s to lower 50s.

Following this system, dry conditions will prevail Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning. However scattered showers
are expected across mid state region as Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night progresses as moisture advection from the southwest
works into mid state region and an upper level low passes very
close to TN/AL border region. Dry conditions should finally
prevail across mid state region Wednesday through upcoming
weekend as now models have shifted any precipitation potential
to south and east of mid state region. Temperatures are expected
to stay around seasonal normal values Tuesday through next Sunday
afternoon also.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Cold front will be working across the area tonight. In advance of
this feature, plenty of rainfall can be expected. Additionally, a
period of stronger tstm activity with higher wind gusts is on tap
near the beginning of the taf period, from 00Z through 04Z. Near
CSV, however, the potential for the stronger storms will occur
between 05Z and 09Z. Otw, look for IFR cigs to prevail once again.
The rainfall will taper off to vcsh toward 12Z. IFR conditions
will lift aft 12Z as well. Some partial clearing could get into
the CKV area around 18Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
355 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
355 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

1 to 2+ inches of rain is again expected today. Falling on already
saturated grounds, there is a moderate flood threat at least through
tonight.

Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible late this
afternoon and early tonight. Damaging straight line wind is the main
threat but isolated tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Several rivers will likely remain elevated through much of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
839 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TNZ011-032>034-065-066-010315-
Putnam TN-Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-White TN-
839 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OVERTON...
NORTHWESTERN PICKETT...NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...NORTHWESTERN
WHITE...CENTRAL PUTNAM AND FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CST...

At 839 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Byrdstown to near Cookeville. Movement was
east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cookeville, Jamestown, Algood, Monterey, Allardt, Grimsley, Hamptons
Crossroads, Burgess Falls State Park, Rickman, Pall Mall, Clarkrange,
Crawford and Pickett State Park.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 287 and 308.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3639 8469 3637 8470 3638 8472 3635 8473
      3635 8474 3634 8474 3633 8477 3630 8480
      3629 8487 3628 8488 3624 8488 3621 8491
      3618 8490 3615 8491 3613 8487 3610 8485
      3602 8563 3662 8506 3660 8478 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 255DEG 44KT 3660 8504 3610 8552

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
841 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE CHAPMANSBORO      36.33N  87.09W
02/28/2021                   CHEATHAM           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TSPOTTER REPORT OF WATER OVER THE ROAD AT LOCKERTSVILLE
            RD AND HARRISTOWN RD IN NW ASHLAND CITY. ROAD CLOSED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100280

CMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
853 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW ASHLAND CITY      36.33N  87.09W
02/28/2021                   CHEATHAM           TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            LOCKERTSVILLE ROAD AT HARRISTOWN ROAD IS FLOODED

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100282

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
912 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAINESBORO              36.36N  85.65W
02/28/2021                   JACKSON            TN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON SEVERAL ROADWAYS ACROSS THE COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100283

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIVINGSTON              36.39N  85.33W
02/28/2021                   OVERTON            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING LINDER MOUNTAIN ROAD AND POWER POLE
            AND LINES DOWN BLOCKING HIGHWAY 111 NEAR BIG SPRINGS
            ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100284

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE NEW JOHNSONVILLE  36.01N  87.91W
02/28/2021                   HUMPHREYS          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AND DAMAGE REPORTED
            TO A FEW HOMES ON MILL ROAD AND OLD STATE ROAD IN NEW
            JOHNSONVILLE.

&&

CORRECTED FATALITIES...INJURIES...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100275

SHAMBURGER