Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
430 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Went with a blended model solution through next Sunday
afternoon. Continued good initialization and generally good
solution agreement of weather evolution pattern through next
Sunday afternoon also. Significant rainfall event still in
works for tonight with now severe thunderstorms possible
through at least 01/04Z for locations around and west of
the I-65 Corridor.

28/18Z Special OHX Sounding showing very moist profile in low
levels giving around 1.4 inches of precipitable water. Mixed layer
CAPE around 450 J/KG with strong wind shear. SRH values around
400 with some turning of winds in the lowest levels adequate
enough for tornadic development. Still believe damaging winds
with heavy downpours will be main concern with any severe
thunderstorms that develop. Looks like best window for main brunt
of showers and thunderstorms around Nashville Metro Area will be
around 9 PM this evening.

Taking a even a closer look, the warm front has continued to
tracking northeastward, with a tight surface/low level lows across
Great Lakes Region doing the same. Movement of these lows will
drag its associated cold front across mid state region as evening
hours progress and potentially even into late night hours. Mid
and upper level flow not especially impressive as it is continuing
to be depicted by latest model runs along with surface cold front.
As a result, it may take some time for deep moisture/widespread
rain to move out as well. Showers and thunderstorms have develop
across northwest portions of mid state as afternoon hours have
progressed. It will more than likely take through sunrise Monday
for heavier precipitation to move out of mid state region. With
much of the area already seeing several inches of rain over the
past few days, the flood threat will continue through early
morning hours on Monday, especially rivers and creeks that will
likely stay elevated for several upcoming days. Continued flood
watch through tonight with another 1-2 inches of rainfall possible.

Lows tonight will fall into low to mid 40s as surface frontal
passage occurs. As a cold air advection pattern from our north
settles into mid state region as Monday progresses, highs will be
actually be a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values
generally upper 40s to lower 50s.

Following this system, dry conditions will prevail Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning. However scattered showers
are expected across mid state region as Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night progresses as moisture advection from the southwest
works into mid state region and an upper level low passes very
close to TN/AL border region. Dry conditions should finally
prevail across mid state region Wednesday through upcoming
weekend as now models have shifted any precipitation potential
to south and east of mid state region. Temperatures are expected
to stay around seasonal normal values Tuesday through next Sunday
afternoon also.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Cold front will be working across the area tonight. In advance of
this feature, plenty of rainfall can be expected. Additionally, a
period of stronger tstm activity with higher wind gusts is on tap
near the beginning of the taf period, from 00Z through 04Z. Near
CSV, however, the potential for the stronger storms will occur
between 05Z and 09Z. Otw, look for IFR cigs to prevail once again.
The rainfall will taper off to vcsh toward 12Z. IFR conditions
will lift aft 12Z as well. Some partial clearing could get into
the CKV area around 18Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
355 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-011130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
355 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

1 to 2+ inches of rain is again expected today. Falling on already
saturated grounds, there is a moderate flood threat at least through
tonight.

Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible late this
afternoon and early tonight. Damaging straight line wind is the main
threat but isolated tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Several rivers will likely remain elevated through much of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
244 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TNZ008-009-282115-
Sumner TN-Macon TN-
244 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SUMNER AND MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CST...

At 244 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westmoreland, or 11 miles northeast of Gallatin, moving east at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Westmoreland, Red Boiling Springs, Oak Grove and Bethpage.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3662 8581 3650 8582 3651 8617 3643 8639
      3665 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 264DEG 28KT 3651 8633

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
311 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TNZ009-010-282145-
Clay TN-Macon TN-
311 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND NORTHERN
MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CST...

At 311 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lafayette, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Red Boiling Springs and Bugtussle.

LAT...LON 3662 8567 3651 8588 3651 8615 3664 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 261DEG 31KT 3657 8605

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOVER                   36.48N  87.84W
02/28/2021                   STEWART            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD FLOODING REPORTED ON THE TRACE ONE MILE NORTH OF
            HWY 79 AND ON SANDY ROAD AT INDIAN CREEK IN DOVER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2100267

SHAMBURGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TNZ006-007-025-026-010100-
Robertson TN-Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
623 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN CHEATHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN
ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CST...

At 623 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Clarksville, moving east at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Ashland City, Clarksville, Coopertown, Pleasant View,
Adams, Cedar Hill, Cheatham Dam and Cunningham.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 12 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3625 8738 3642 8746 3658 8705 3650 8690
      3630 8700
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 247DEG 46KT 3637 8733

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

TNZ023-024-010100-
Humphreys TN-Houston TN-
625 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HOUSTON AND HUMPHREYS COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM CST...

At 625 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Tennessee Ridge to 7 miles
southwest of New Johnsonville. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, Erin, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Tennessee Ridge, Hurricane
Mills and Houston County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3600 8800 3603 8800 3612 8792 3617 8792
      3622 8795 3628 8795 3633 8797 3634 8789
      3633 8782 3635 8774 3636 8760 3596 8761
      3592 8793 3594 8793 3594 8798 3595 8801
      3597 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 260DEG 36KT 3632 8793 3594 8807

13